Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

New update about the 2017 local elections:

Pedro Santana Lopes, former mayor of Figueira da Foz and Lisbon and former PSD prime minister, revealed to expresso newspaper that he will not be a candidate in the election for Lisbon.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-01-Santana-ao-Expresso-Nao-serei-candidato-a-Camara-de-Lisboa

[Mike88]

As expected, the new president of the Caixa Geral de Depósitos (public bank) will be the former health minister from the PSD/CDS government Paulo Macedo. With this choice, the long drama about the public bank is now, finally, over.

On the political stage, today started the 20th congress of the Communist Party. Nothing new will be said in this congress, where the PCP will raise their flags about the nationalization of banks, Portugal's exit from the euro and EU, the end of the big capital, etc.

On the other hand, the PCP manifesto for the congress raises the dire financial situation of the party. They are losing members and have a debt of more than a 1,000,000 euros while 4 years ago they had debt of around 200k euros.

http://observador.pt/2016/09/26/pcp-reconhece-situacao-financeira-insustentavel-nas-teses-ao-congresso/

[Mike88]

1st part of the December Aximage poll released.

About the PSD leadership election in 2018, Rui Rio is popular in the electorate as a whole but not so much in the PSD electorate.

Q: Who is the best to lead the PSD?

All voters:

Rui Rio: 60.3%
Passos Coelho: 16.5%
Santana Lopes: 10.8%
Luís Montenegro: 6.5%
DK: 5.9%

PSD voters

Rui Rio: 43.6%
Passos Coelho: 40.7%
Luís Montenegro: 10.6%
Santana Lopes: 3.2%
DK: 1.9%

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/rui-rui-mais-desejado-no-pais-do-que-no-psd?ref=HP_DestaquesdebaixoNegociosTV

[Mike88]

Ok, update on the political scene here:

About the 2017 local elections, we may see the return of the "dinosaurs". Former disgrace mayors Isaltino Morais, Valentim Loureiro and Narciso Miranda are considering running again in their cities, Oeiras, Gondomar and Matosinhos respectively. These 3 have a long history involving corruption accusations and in fact Isaltino Morais was actually jailed for several years. They were quite popular in the past but not sure if today they would attract a significant amount of voters. Let's wait and see.

https://www.publico.pt/2016/12/09/politica/noticia/isaltino-valentim-e-narciso-podem-estar-de-regresso-em-2017-1754079

About the "supposed" PSD leadership contest, the press is throwing every day news and reports that someone new is considering running for the leadership. Most of them are complete nonsense, Santana Lopes and Marques Mendes don't have the slightest chance, nor does Morais Sarmento for God sake. The only real alternative is Rui Rio and even him should be careful. Polls show that he's popular but the PSD voters don't think it's time for a leadership contest, only in 2018. If Rio makes the same move against Passos next year like what Costa did to António José Seguro in 2014, he may have a bad surprise.

http://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/537586/psd-indefinicao-nas-autarquicas-acelera-movimentacoes-contra-passos-

[Mike88]

For anyone interested, here's 3 articles about the 2015 post election inquiry conducted by GfK Portugal and led by one of Portugal's proeminent pollsters, Pedro Magalhães.

1. The austerity in the 2015 elections
http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/a-austeridade-nas-eleicoes-de-2015/

2. The PS problem in the 2015 elections
http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/o-problema-do-ps-nas-eleicoes-de-2015/

3. Transfers of votes between 2011 and 2015
http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/transferencias-de-voto-em-2015/

On the last topic, here's the Sankey diagram of the 2015/2011 elections:

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The PSD and CDS will sign tomorrow the coalition agreement for the 2017 local elections. This agreement will establish the overall lines of how coalitions between the two parties will work. At the same time it's not clear how many coalitions will be formed for the 2017 elections. In 2013, 89 coalitions were formalized and until now around 50 have already been announced but only by early 2017 the final number will be settled.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-12-PSD-e-CDS-assinam-acordo-para-as-autarquicas

[Mike88]

New poll from Eurosondagem fro SIC and Expresso.



Conducted between 7 and 14 December. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-16-Sondagem-PS-aumenta-distancia-para-PSD-e-CDS-somados

[Mike88]

New poll from Eurosondagem fro SIC and Expresso.



Conducted between 7 and 14 December. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-16-Sondagem-PS-aumenta-distancia-para-PSD-e-CDS-somados

So Costa is popular ?

Right now, yes.

Here's the popularity ratings of the different political leaders:



Costa is basically stealing votes from the BE, CDU and Other parties. The PSD has dropped over the months but the overall sum between the PSD/CDS is pretty much on the same level of the 2015 elections.

[Mike88]

Aximage Poll for Correio da Manhã/Jornal de Negócios/CMTV



Prefered PM:

Costa: 61.6%
Passos Coelho: 26.5%
Neither: 10.5%

http://www.cmjornal.pt/cm-ao-minuto/detalhe/psd-afunda-e-ps-segue-caminho-para-a-maioria?ref=HP_Grupo1

Conducted between 2 and 4 December. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

Today, at least 3 newspapers are reporting that the PSD is willing to support the candidacy of Assunção Cristas, leader of CDS, for mayor of Lisbon. The press also points that the PSD still hasn't drop the idea of having a candidate of their own but that supporting the CDS is on the table. The campaign coordinator of the PSD, Carlos Carreiras, has said that a possible support is on the table but that, at the moment, no negotiations between the 2 parties are schedule and that the main goal is to have a candidacy of their own.

Of course this news breaks one day after another report stating that the vice-president of the PSD-Lisbon said in the Christmas dinner of the local party, in front of an audience of more than 1,000 people, that Pedro Passos Coelho himself should be the candidate for Lisbon. This report was called nonsense by the national PSD.

http://www.dn.pt/portugal/interior/carreiras-desmente-inicio-de-negociacoes-com-o-cds-para-apoiar-cristas-5557393.html

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-15-Vice-presidente-do-PSD-Lisboa-desafia-Passos-Coelho-a-candidatar-se-a-camara

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is under fire today after an attempt to save an old and historic theatre company from bankruptcy. On Saturday, the PR showed up, unexpectedly, at the Cornucópia theatre to try to save it and dragged the Culture minister with him. On live television, the PR tried to force an agreement between the minister and the theatre to create a special status for the theatre. Of course the minister rejected the idea and Marcelo is now being attacked by actors and politicians for having exceeded his constitutional powers.

More info here:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-19-Ministro-rejeita-solucao-proposta-por-Marcelo-para-a-Cornucopia

http://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/538997/cornucopia-marcelo-extravasou-os-seus-poderes-ha-quem-ache-que-sim

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for the 2017 local election in the municipality of Paredes (PSD incumbent)

1st option, if PSD candidate is Joaquim Neves
24.2% PSD
22.4% PS
  2.3% CDU
  1.9% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.6% DR
28.6% DK
  7.9% Abstention

2nd option, if PSD candidate is Rui Moutinho
24.6% PS
17.3% PSD
  2.6% CDU
  3.6% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.8% DR
33.7% DK
  5.5% Abstention

The poll was conducted before the elections in the local PSD Paredes which were won by Rui Moutinho by a 53% to 47% margin. It's expected he will be the official candidate, but according to local newspapers he was not the favorite candidate of the current mayor Celso Ferreira, which is barred for reelection because of term limits, so anything could still happen. Still to early to say who is going to win this but Paredes could swing to the PS this time around, particularly because in 2013 the PSD only won by 0.16%.

More info here:
http://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/publicitacao-de-sondagens/depositos-de-2016/estudo-sociopolitico-no-concelho-de-paredes-20161221-200546

http://verdadeiroolhar.pt/2016/12/05/rui-moutinho-novo-presidente-da-comissao-politica-do-psd-paredes/

[Mike88]

DK= Don't Know
DR= Do not respond

[Mike88]

Yesterday the government approved an increase of the minimum wage to 557 euros. To achieve this the government settled an agreement with companies bosses in which companies will have an 1.25% cut of the Unique social tax (TSU) to social security. The problem is that unions are totally against this and did not sign this agreement and even the 3 parties that support the PS, are also against this measure. The Greens even say that this violates the agreement they signed with the Socialists while the PCP and BE are going to try to stop this measure in Parliament.

Even without discussing the merits or problems that this measure has, this was a master move by the PM. With this policy, Costa is obliging the PCP, BE and PEV to say yes or to end this government, with the consequences of a bad result for the leftwing parties. When Costa took the oath of office a year ago, many were predicting that the PS would be eaten by the extreme left, the reality is that today the BE and CDU are trapped and any strike against Costa would mean disaster at the polls. While in Europe the extremes are rising, in Portugal they might be collapsing in front of your eyes.

More info here:
http://observador.pt/2016/12/23/pcp-vai-tentar-travar-descida-da-tsu-para-patroes-no-parlamento/  

http://observador.pt/2016/12/22/ha-acordo-salario-minimo-nos-557-euros-tsu-desce-125-para-patroes/

http://observador.pt/2016/12/22/reduzir-a-tsu-das-empresas-nao-viola-mesmo-o-acordo-com-os-verdes/

[Mike88]

The minister of foreign affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, had to publicly apologized today because of remarks he was caught making in the PS Christmas dinner. In the dinner the minister was gloating the agreement made to increase the minimum wage and talking very casually with the minister of social security, he compared the meeting and the agreement between companies bosses and the unions to be like cattle fair. This sparked a lot of controversy and criticism from unions, bosses and the opposition and the minister had to apologize. This is not the first time Santos Silva is in hot waters, during the Sócrates governments he made a lot of controversial statements being the most famous the one where he said he likes to "hammer the right".

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-27-Santos-Silva-pede-desculpa-por-comparar-concertacao-social-a-feira-de-gado

Also, the defense minister is also on the news. Today he published on Facebook a note with a goodbye tone to former President Mário Soares. Former President Mário Soares has been in hospital for several weeks now and since Saturday he has been in a deep coma. The prognostic is not very good and the hospital says that we should prepare for the worse.

http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/pais/2016-12-27-Ministro-da-Defesa-publica-agradecimento-a-Mario-Soares-no-Facebook

[Mike88]

The new year in here, and the local elections are going to be the big political event of 2017.

In Porto, the PSD finally choose a candidate. They will nominate Álvaro Santos Almeida, an economist from the PSD-Porto, former president of Health Regulatory Entity of the North and a former IMF staffer. With this decision the PSD closes the discussion about an hypothetical support for Rui Moreira, current mayor of Porto.

In Cascais, the PS will nominate former culture minister Gabriela Canavilhas; in Oeiras Joaquim Raposo, former mayor of nearby city of Amadora, will run against Paulo Vistas, current mayor that will run with the expected support of the PSD, and Isaltino Morais who is, according to rumours, preparing a comeback.

Links:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/02/chama-se-alvaro-e-e-a-aposta-do-psd-para-enfrentar-rui-moreira/

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-30-PS-lanca-candidatura-de-Gabriela-Canavilhas-a-Cascais-e-Joaquim-Raposo-em-Oeiras

[Mike88]

Just found this site and it has fantastic maps particularly national parish maps, one the rarest maps seen in Portugal.

http://geografia-eleitoral.webnode.pt/

The site aggregates parish maps between 1991 and 2011. They, unfortunately, only have the parish map of the district of Aveiro from the 2015 election. They also have parish maps for the different regions of the country. Enjoy

Some examples:

Parish map of the 2009 election:


Parish map of the 2011 election:

[Mike88]

Former President and Prime Minister Mário Soares died today at age of 92. RIP

[Mike88]

The site that i posted earlier this week, aggregates awesome maps but didn't have a map of the 2015 election. So i decided to make one. And here it is:



Some considerations about the map:

The parish map, just like the district map and municipality map, shows a clear North-South divide with the Tagus river being the border between both sides;

The PSD/CDS dominates the North and the Upper Center of the country while the PS dominates the Coimbra Area and the Serra da Estrela area in the Center of the country; The PSD/CDS also dominates the Oeste area of the Country, between Lisbon and Coimbra; The South is pretty much painted in pink and red with some blue points which in Alentejo are, in their majority, urban areas. Algarve is painted pink with the exception of the coastal part between Lagoa and Faro where the rich and luxurious resorts of the Algarve are located;

The PS, got swept in the North particularly in Braga district, the Portuguese Ohio. Braga has gone for the winner in every general election since 1976 but as the real Ohio in America is swinging to the Republicans, since 2011 Braga has been swinging to the PSD. In fact, Braga was the only district where the PS lost votes and vote share, plus in the 2013 local election, Braga was also the only district the PSD gained compared with the last local election in 2009.

[Mike88]

What explains the Braga shift?

Economic reasons mainly. During the "Troika" bailout years, and unlike the rest of the country, Braga district saw a big increase in jobs, wages and a big reduction of people dependent on government subsidies. This occurred more specifically in 3 cities of the district, Famalicão, Guimarães and Vizela. These 3 cities were in the podium of job gains and reduction of unemployment subsidies, and Vizela and Guimarães saw one of the country's big increases in wages and purchase power. Many of these good economic numbers from the district are related with the growth and rehabilitation of many textile and shoe factories which in the early 2000's came to or near bankruptcy.

More information:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/sociedade/2015-12-08-Que-sentido-faz-o-sentido-do-voto-

Also, many of these cities like Braga, Guimarães, Fafe and Vizela were PS strongholds for many decades and many corruption scandals, particularly in the city of Braga, may have undermined the PS in the district.

[Mike88]

Ok, update on the political scene:

The last few weeks have not been easy for the government. The new year started with the sell off of the Novo Banco (former BES). The winner chosen by the bank of Portugal, Lone Star funds, says it will only pay 750 million euros for the bank, a price the government says is too small to accept. Right now negotiations between the Bank of Portugal, Lone Star and Apollo Management (another fund interested in the bank) are underway. At the same time, a big debate about a possible nationalization of Novo Banco is making the headlines with the PS divided between the government and the parliamentary caucus.

Bond rates are again on the news as they surpassed 4% last week. Yesterday, the government borrowed money on the market at the highest rate since 2014 as it stood at 4.23%. This numbers have once again put in the headlines the discussion about the national debt.

The death of Mário Soares did not surprise anyone, as he was in coma for several weeks, but he died during the state visit of António Costa to India. Many thought the PM would cut his journey short but he decided to stay. Many PS militants and supporters did not like this and during the weekend the PS headquarters received many calls and emails with people frustrated with the PM decision.

And, today, the government plan to increase the minimun wage by reducing Social Security contributions (TSU) of employers by 1.25%, suffered a big blow. After the Communists and the Left Bloc announced that they would put this policy for a vote in Parliament and vote against it, the government was counting on the support of the PSD but Pedro Passos Coelho announced at the parliamentary caucus meeting of the PSD, that the party will vote against the policy. During the meeting, Passos Coelho said he will not be the "savior" of the government and that he opposes "the use of the TSU to promote the increase of the national minimum wage". This decision was not well received by bosses, who are now demanding the government to find a solution. The increase of the minimum wage to 557 euros could be in risk this year.

Links:
About Novo Banco:
https://eco.pt/topico/nacionalizacao-do-novo-banco/

Bond rates:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/11/estado-devera-pagar-juros-perto-de-42-para-emitir-divida/

PM's decision to stay in India:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-01-08-Costa-volta-a-justificar-falta-a-funeral-de-Soares-O-PM-nao-tem-vontades-pessoais-faz-o-que-deve-fazer-1

PSD vote against TSU reduction:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/12/salario-minimo-psd-deixa-ps-isolado-e-votara-contra-descida-da-tsu-para-patroes/

[Mike88]

Wait...why are the Left parties opposing a minimum wAge hike?

They are not against the increase of the minimun wage. On the contrary, for the Communists, for example, they say the minimun wage should be at 900 euros right now.

What they are against is the way it's being increased. I wrote about this in December, to increase the minimum wage the government made a deal with employers in which they will see their contributions to Social Security reduced 1.25%, the so call TSU - Social Unity Tax. Both employers and employees pay this tax.

Here's what i wrote in December:

Yesterday the government approved an increase of the minimum wage to 557 euros. To achieve this the government settled an agreement with companies bosses in which companies will have an 1.25% cut of the Unique social tax (TSU) to social security. The problem is that unions are totally against this and did not sign this agreement and even the 3 parties that support the PS, are also against this measure. The Greens even say that this violates the agreement they signed with the Socialists while the PCP and BE are going to try to stop this measure in Parliament.

[Mike88]

Poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 5 and 11 January. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.07%

Link:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-01-13-Sondagem.-Costa-perde-popularidade-pela-primeira-vez-1

[Mike88]

Also, seat projections based on Eurosondagem poll numbers (compared with the 2015 election results):

100 (+14) PS
  85    (-4) PSD
  18    (-1) BE
  15    (-2) CDU
  11    (-7) CDS
    1    ( - ) PAN

If PSD/CDS ran in a coalition:

100    (-7) PSD/CDS
  97 (+11) PS
  17    (-2) BE
  15    (-2) CDU
    1    ( - ) PAN

Seat projections from here:
http://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html

[Mike88]

Aximage poll:



Poll conducted between 6 and 9 January. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4,00%.

Seat projection:

118 (+32) PS (Absolute majority)
  70 ( -19) PSD
  17    (-2) BE
  13    (-4) CDU
  11    (-7) CDS
    1    ( - ) PAN

If PSD/CDS ran coaltion:

115 (+29) PS
  86 ( -21) PSD/CDS
  17    (-2) BE
  11    (-6) CDU
    1    ( - ) PAN
   
Link: http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/ps-volta-a-subir-e-psd-continua-em-queda?ref=HP_UltimasNoticias