Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

New polling, conducted by Gfk/Metris and headed by one of Portugal's leading pollesters, Pedro Magalhães, will be available on Saturday.

GfK/Metris will start publishing polls, next weekend, on Expresso newspaper/SIC TV. The polling, done by secret ballot, and that surveyed 801 registered voters was conducted between 9 and 21 February 2019. The poll, according to the webpage, will have crosstabs by age, gender, region, and school degree.

[Mike88]

For the 2019 elections, 10,846,000 voters are registered to vote:

It may sound weird, because Portugal itself has around 10.3 million inhabitants, but the number of registered voters for the 2019 European and General elections is almost 11 million, to be precise, 10,845,868. This happened because the government approved, in 2018, the automatic registration of all voters that live abroad, meaning, if you have a Portuguese ID card, but live outside Portugal, you are automatically registered to vote. That meant that the number of voters living abroad rose from 242,000 in 2015, to 1,476,000 in 2019.  

The negative side of this is that turnout percentages (%) could reach record lows for a general election in October. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Political update:

The state of the justice system has been the main headline in the last few days in Portugal. The number of women murdered by their husbands/partners, or ex's, has reached a record high for just two months in one year. A total of 11 women have been murdered only this year and this has spark up the debate of domestic violence, and abuse, in Portugal. The way the justice system prosecutes these cases is also in the spotlight, for bad reasons. The vast majority of the cases of domestic violence don't end up in jail or punitive measures, and only 9% of the cases ends up in some kind of sentence.

In the middle of all of this, a judge in Porto city has been making sentences that only make things worse. Judge Neto de Moura from Porto's court has, in the past, proclaimed weird and deeply controversial sentences. In 2017, he refused to increase the jail sentence of two men, the husband and the lover of the wife, because the woman in question did an "despicable action" and that it's "understandable violence perpetrated by man betrayed, vexed and humiliated by the woman". To add more ground to his thesis, he quoted the bible. And now, he ordered the removal of the electronic bracelet from a man accused of beating up his wife and of bursting her eardrums. The man, who continues to insult his wife, is now free and the judge argues that the law was broken as it was not asked authorization from the attacker, nor argued why the meassure was indispensable to protect the woman.

Of course, 2 ruling in a row are creating a huge controversy. The government has announced a national day of mourning for victims of domestic violence. And judge Neto de Moura is being fiercely mocked by the media, and he is even suing some comedians in Portugal for their jokes against and towards him. In the middle of this, the Superior Council of the Judiciary is refusing to punish judge Neto de Moura for his actions and only sent him an advice note. Here's where politics enters. Rui Rio, PSD leader, wants to reform the justice system and wants to nominate civilians to these councils in order, according to him, to balance their decisions:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1102948765730783232

I hope that the controversy around Neto de Moura serves to perceive the real state of Justice and the closed corporatism that dominates it. An aspect that I have been pointing for a long, long time.

The judges and the rest of the judicial system loaded Rio's proposal, but it seems that Rio is firing back at them. During the weekend, there will be rallies against domestic violence across the country, but, it's yet to be seen if they will have an impact. My hunch, unfortunately, is no.

Also, António Costa appeared, today, on Portugal's most popular morning show, o programa da Cristina (Cristina's program) on SIC TV, cooking and talking about his personal life.

Costa cooked fish cataplana, talked about his childhood as a child of divorced parents, while his wife, Fernanda Tadeu, said she meet Costa while in college when he had "many girlfriends". He also said he likes house shores, like going to the self service laundry. Costa is the 3rd main politician to appear in this morning show. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, called live to the show on the day it broadcast the pilot episode, a move that some pundits argue is making the President more and more unpopular, and Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, which was mocked on social media for cooking tuna rice.

[Mike88]

Electoral Commission forbids national, regional and local governments of advertising new public construction projects before elections:

It's a complete revolution in election campaigns in Portugal. For years, before election days, local, regional and national government had the habit of announcing some kind of public construction project, small, medium or big, in a way to make election campaign and win votes. Not anymore, it seems. After several rulings from the Constitutional Court, that sentenced many city halls for illegal campaign advertisement, the Electoral Commission (CNE) has ruled that no more new construction projects can be announced before, for now, the European election in May. Only if the projects are urgent, they are allowed to be announced.

A curious ruling, because the PS main candidate for the EP election, Pedro Marques, was the former minister of infrastructures and before he became the head list candidate for the PS, he announced several new public construction projects. According to the media, the government is now reorganizing their strategy.

[Mike88]

New parties: Setback for André Ventura's Enough! party as the Constitutional Court invalidates hundreds of signatures.

The Constitutional Court has invalidated hundreds of signatures sent by André Ventura in order to legalize his new party, Enough! (Chega!). The Court found several signatures from minors and from police forces, and has forced Ventura to deliver more signatures in 10 days, tops. The party has confirmed this and is trying to gather enough signatures at the time given by the Court. The Court, however, hasn't ruled about the party rules and structures.

This setback could prevent Enough! of contesting the EP elections, as parties have a deadline to present candidacies until April 15th.

[Mike88]

Gfk/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %:

37% PS
25% PSD
  8% CDU
  8% CDS
  8% BE
  3% PAN
  2% Alliance
  4% Others
  5% Blank/Invalid

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

8.1 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
5.8 António Costa
4.9 Jerónimo de Sousa
4.7 Rui Rio
4.7 Catarina Martins
4.3 André Silva (PAN)
4.0 Assunção Cristas

Poll conducted between 9 and 21 February 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

After midnight, all results will be available here.

[Mike88]

More data from the GfK/Metris poll:

Q1: In the last year, do you think the economic situation has improved a lot, improved, stayed the same, worsened or worsened a lot? "

40% Stayed the same
36% Improved
19% Worsened
  2% Worsened a lot
  1% Improved a lot
  2% Don't know

Q2: Thinking about the overall performance of the current Government, how would you rate its performance?

52% Good
29% Bad
  5% Very bad
  2% Very good
12% Don't know

Q3: And compared to the previous government (PSD/CDS), I would say that this government (PS) is doing a job ...

44% Better
32% Same
13% Worse
  5% Much better
  2% Much worse
  5% Don't know

Q4: Party sympathy:

21.8% PS
14.1% PSD
  6.0% PCP
  3.2% BE
  2.0% CDS
  0.7% Alliance
  0.4% PAN
  0.3% Others
44.0% None
  7.5% Refused/Don't know

Poll conducted between 9 and 21 February 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

Local by-election imminent for Castro Marim city hall:


Location of Castro Marim in Faro district, Algarve.

Castro Marim, town with around 6,700 inhabitants in Faro district (Algarve), will most likely go to the polls to elect a new mayor and a new local government after the resignation of the current PSD minority cabinet. The incumbent mayor, Francisco Amaral, says that the PS/Ind opposition have blocked every policy initiative of the PSD and, according to him, have frozen city management. Mr Amaral will run again and will ask for a majority. PS has announced it will present the same candidate as 2017, Célia Brito. The election date is not yet known, but it may be in May, perhaps on the same day of the EP elections.

In 2017, the results were the following:

37.1% PSD/CDS, 2 seats
36.3% PS, 2
21.1% Independent, 1
  2.4% CDU
  3.1% Blank/Invalid

67.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

In a new setback, PPM, People's Monarchist Party, votes against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections:

The PPM national council has voted against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections, calling him "racist" and "populist" This mean that Ventura has to have his party legalized until the April 15th, the deadline to present candidates. His party was adverted by the Constitutional Court for having signatures of children and others. He says that he has collected an extra 1,000 new signatures and will deliver them next Monday to the Court.

The proposed coalition between Enough! and PPM could also be dead. We'll see.

[Mike88]

A question for crals about the PSD-Azores:

There was a little controversy about the PSD lists because of the inclusion, or not, of Mota Amaral, the 1st president of the Azores government in democracy (1976-1995), in the party lists for the EP elections. Because last time, in 2014, the PSD-Azores was benefited with a 3rd place slot in the lists, this time was Madeira's turn to be benefited. According to the media, the PSD-Azores was forcing Rui Rio to accept Mota Amaral's name in a top spot or there wouldn't be no candidate and the regional party would consider not campaigning at all for the EP elections.

Because you, crals, are more into Azorean politics, how do you make of this tactic?

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from March:
   
Vote share %: (compared with the January poll)   
   
37.3% PS (-2.7)
25.2% PSD (+0.4)
  8.5% CDS (+1.4)
  8.1% BE (+0.5)
  7.1% CDU (nc)
  3.3% Alliance (-0.7)
  2.4% PAN (+0.5)
  8.1% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Popularity ratings: (Approve; Disapprove; margin)

69.0%;   9.0%, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +60.0%
50.0%; 25.0%, António Costa +25.0%
45.0%; 28.1%, Rui Rio +16.9%
40.8%; 26.0%, Parliament +14.8%
42.2%; 28.4%, Jerónimo de Sousa +13.8%
41.2%; 28.7%, Government +12.5%
41.7%; 29.9%, Catarina Martins +11.8%
41.2%; 29.8%, Assunção Cristas +11.4%

Poll conducted between 10 and 14 March 2019. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Prices of public transport passes to decrease by 100 euros, or more, in Lisbon and Porto metro areas:

Some pundits are calling it one of the biggest impacting policies in the last few years in Portugal. The cost of public transport passes will be lowered in order for families to have only a 80 euros (90.6 dolares) limit per month. In some cases, families could save from around 100 euros (113 dolars) to 242 euros (274 dolars) per month. This policy is schedule to start on April, but there could be some delays, because transport companies may still be waiting for new tickets machines. This meassure, however, will only be introduced in Lisbon and Porto metro areas, where 4.6 million people live, around 44% of the population. The rest of the country, 56% of the population, small/medium size cities and rural areas, will not, for now, have the same benefits.

[Mike88]

More polling data.

Aximage poll from March:   
   
Vote share %:   
   
36.3% PS (-0.1)
23.9% PSD (-0.5)
  9.7% CDS (+0.4)
  9.2% BE (+0.3)
  6.8% CDU (+0.5)
  2.2% PAN (-0.3)
  1.8% Alliance (+0.2)
  8.1% Others/Invalid (+0.5)
  2.0% Undecided (-1.0)
  
Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

9.4 Catarina Martins (+0.6)
9.2 António Costa (-0.2)
8.2 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.6)
7.9 Rui Rio (+0.2)
7.9 Assunção Cristas (-0.3)

Preferred PM:

53.8% António Costa (+1.1)
27.7% Rui Rio (-3.7)  

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 March 2019. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.  

[Mike88]

Local by-election imminent for Castro Marim city hall:


Location of Castro Marim in Faro district, Algarve.

Castro Marim, town with around 6,700 inhabitants in Faro district (Algarve), will most likely go to the polls to elect a new mayor and a new local government after the resignation of the current PSD minority cabinet. The incumbent mayor, Francisco Amaral, says that the PS/Ind opposition have blocked every policy initiative of the PSD and, according to him, have frozen city management. Mr Amaral will run again and will ask for a majority. PS has announced it will present the same candidate as 2017, Célia Brito. The election date is not yet known, but it may be in May, perhaps on the same day of the EP elections.

In 2017, the results were the following:

37.1% PSD/CDS, 2 seats
36.3% PS, 2
21.1% Independent, 1
  2.4% CDU
  3.1% Blank/Invalid

67.6% Turnout

Castro Marim city hall by-election is called for 2 June 2019, one week after the EP elections. PSD, PS and CDU will file candidacies, while the Independents are still considering a run or not. Before that there will be also a by-election on 28 April in Pias parish, Monção municipality, Viana do Castelo district. The election is, it seems, literally a forgone conclusion as only the PSD presented a list, so, it will be a PSD gain from Independents, that won in 2017.

[Mike88]

PSD proposal to liberalize the taxi sector stuck down by PS, CDS, BE and CDU:

The PSD proposals to liberalize the taxi sector in Portugal were, overwhelming, stuck down by all parties in Parliament, except PAN and an Independent MP that abstained. The Social Democrats were proposing the end of fixed prices, increase competition, the end of colour standardization of taxis and the elimination of quotas defined by the municipalities for the allocation of licenses. PS accused the PSD of proposing "radical" policies, while CDS asked were was this PSD when the CDS also presented policies for the taxi sector. PCP accused the PSD of destroying the sector, while BE said the Social Democrats want "full liberalization" of a sector that provides public services.

In their defense, the PSD accused all parties that voted against their proposals of having zero proposals and only criticize. A PSD MP said that he was ashamed of PS, CDS, BE and CDU.

To add also, BE proposal of taxing Google, Facebook and others in Portugal was struck down by PS, PSD, CDS and an independent MP. PAN abstained while only BE and CDU voted in favour. The Left Bloc's proposal was to tax the big tech gigants like Google, Facebook and Amazon in order to create, using part of that money, a fund for press andmedia literacy, which would reach some 500,000 young people.  

[Mike88]

A question for crals about the PSD-Azores:

There was a little controversy about the PSD lists because of the inclusion, or not, of Mota Amaral, the 1st president of the Azores government in democracy (1976-1995), in the party lists for the EP elections. Because last time, in 2014, the PSD-Azores was benefited with a 3rd place slot in the lists, this time was Madeira's turn to be benefited. According to the media, the PSD-Azores was forcing Rui Rio to accept Mota Amaral's name in a top spot or there wouldn't be no candidate and the regional party would consider not campaigning at all for the EP elections.

Because you, crals, are more into Azorean politics, how do you make of this tactic?

I suppose it will make no difference in the end because the Azores are a small part of the country. Mota Amaral still has some diehard supporters but PS would probably easily win the region anyway.
It does feel like the PSD has given up on winning back the Azores any time soon. CDS stole some of their support in the last regional election and could get even more.

Yeah, in terms of votes it will have little impact. In 2014, turnout in Azores was only 19.7%!!. This "conflict" between the national PSD and the PSD-Azores is having very little, or none, impact in mainland Portugal, curiously. Nonetheless, you're right that there's the feeling that the PSD has given up on Azores and that is maybe because of Madeira, although i acknowledge that the pressure to be Mota Amaral and no one else was a bit desperate, in my view. Anyway, the elections in Madeira are super close, for the 1st time in almost 50 years, and the PSD is in absolute panic of losing their historic bastion and are putting all their chips in Madeira and, perhaps, neglecting Azores.

My opinion is that by the time of the next Azores regional election, Rio will no longer be leader and someone well will be leading the PSD, and therefore, the "tensions" will cease. And, we don't know how things will be by October 2020.

[Mike88]

Teachers rally against Costa and the PS drew around 50,000 protesters, below expectations:

Teachers unions and organizations wanted to repeat the massive 100,000 teachers rally against the then PM José Socrates and the PS in 2008, but they fell quite short. Around 50,000 teachers protested today against Costa, his government and the PS. Negotiations between teachers and the government are in a stand still with no side conceding anything. Teachers unions want all 9 years and few months of all wage and progression cuts to be repaid and counted, but the government is only offering 2,5 years. The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, approved the government's bill but it could be blocked in Parliament because of the PSD.

The PSD will present a bill to count all 9 years that the teachers want. But, the PSD bill will be, according to the media, quite vague and with few details, like the BE and PCP bills. Some pundits say the PSD is being inconsistent and pandering for the 100,000-150,000 teacher voters and their families, but, nonetheless, the PSD is under pressure to make a clear position.

[Mike88]

António Costa's interview to Público newspaper: "The euro was the biggest bonus that Europe offered to Germany".

Público newspaper has published a long interview to the Prime Minister this Sunday. The interview focuses mainly on European policies and ideas. In the interview, Costa defends the conclusion of the Euro reform, before a new "crisis" emerges, praises Emmanuel Macron's job and criticizes the radical speeches in many EU countries that are damaging liberal democracies. He adds that it would be a mistake to think that because the economy is growing, that all structural problems of the EU are gone and he also said he's favourable to the introduction of European taxes.

[Mike88]

Nepotism in Costa's government? The controversy that's hunting the government:

Since the last government reshuffle, the media has found a strange situation in Costa's government: many secretaries of state and ministers are related one to another by family ties. According to RTP, the state owned TV, there are more than 20 situations in which people with family ties with many PS ministers have been nominated for government positions. The media is investigating this strongly, and almost every week, a new case is found. Last week, Pedro Nuno Santos wife, minister of Infrastructures, was nominated as chief of staff by his successor in the secretary of Parliamentary affairs, Duarte Cordeiro. And this week, it's being reported that the wife of the deputy caucus leader of the PS, Pedro Delgado Alves, was also nominated as chief of staff of the secretary of administrative modernization. The other two big cases are the Interior minister and the Sea affair minister, which are married, and the Social Security minister and minister of the Presidency, which are father and daughter.

The media reports that this kind of family relations in a government are quite rare and unprecedented, and only seen in the USA with the Donald Trump and Ivanka Trump. The main opposition parties are using this to attack, and mock, the government almost every day. PSD leader, Rui Rio, mocked, during a PSD rally, the government saying the current cabinet looks more like a Christmas dinner than a government. Nonetheless, many ministers and secretaries are defending the nomination of their relatives.

[Mike88]

The "Family relations" controversy in Costa's government continues making headlines, plus the ongoing feud between Marcelo and Cavaco because of this controversy:

The number of members of Costa government with some kind of family relation within the government has risen to almost 40, according to Observador newspaper. Many pundits believe this controversy will not affect the PS polling numbers in the immediate time, but could make some damage in the future. Costa has reacted to the controversy saying, in a press release, that all ministers and secretaries have been nominated by competence and experience, and that many of them is the first time they are in politics. He also took the chance to take a jibe towards Cavaco Silva, former PM (1985-1995) and President of the Republic (PR) (2006-2016), saying memory isn't the best quality of the former President.

The former PM and PR took part of this controversy after the current President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, said it was a historic fact that it was Cavaco that sworn in many ministers of Costa's government back in 2015. Cavaco previously said that Costa's current government organization had nothing to do with the one he sworn in while in office. Both, Marcelo and Cavaco, have, therefore, rekindle their long political feud. Nonetheless, Marcelo has sent a warning to Costa: "It is not good to mix family with politics".

PSD and CDS are continuing attacking the government, saying, the PSD for example, that "family relations cannot be preponderant(...) in a Republic like Portugal, this is not a monarchy." BE has also attacked the government and received a violent response from the PS caucus leader, Carlos César.

In other news, Portugal is on the verge of a balance budget, and, perhaps, a surplus. The deficit stood at 0.5% in 2018, the lowest in democracy, and the national debt decreased to 121.5% of GDP. Government expenditure also decreased to 44%, minus 1.7% compared with 2017. GDP and GDP per capita also achieved record numbers, as GDP surpassed the 200 billion euros mark for the 1st time and, it is projected, that in 2019, Portugal will surpass the 20,000 euros GDP per capita mark also for the first time.

[Mike88]

POLITICO's article on the current government controversy:

https://www.politico.eu/article/nepotism-family-relatives-portugal-government-members-prime-minister-antonio-costa-socialist-party/

Family affair rocks Portuguese government. António Costa’s Socialists hit back at accusations of nepotism.

The world may have gotten used to Ivanka and Jared in the White House but family ties are causing a commotion in Portuguese politics.

The scandal has been simmering for some weeks but gained traction on Tuesday, when Spanish newspaper El País published a scathing article on the recent appointments after Portugal's opposition took aim at the government's staffing policy.

(...)

But Luís de Sousa, a research fellow at the University of Lisbon's social sciences institute, said that appointing family members is damaging to public perception of politics.

"The question of possible conflict of interest, though important, might not be the most crucial. It is perception that is important, because it gives the impression you just need a relative to pull the strings so you can have a political career," he said.

[Mike88]

CDS leader, Assunção Cristas, apologizes to PS MP, Isabel Moreira, after a CDS member made a homophobic insult to her:

Assunção Cristas was forced to apologize to PS MP, Isabel Moreira, after a local CDS member, from Barcelos, Braga district, made a homophobic insult towards Isabel Moreira. Assunção Cristas apologized via twitter:

https://twitter.com/CristasAssuncao/status/1111750453799342080

I absolutely repudiate any comment on hate. The CDS is based on respect for all people and from all points of view and condemns comments of this kind. Although I only link his own, I can not but deeply regret what happened and apologize to Isabel Moreira.

Armindo Leite allegedly sent a message, via Facebook messenger, to Isabel Moreira saying "You're a disgrace s*** lesbian, kill yourself". Mr Leite has said it wasn't him that sent that message, adding his account may have been hacked, but, since then, he has refused to talk to the press. Isabel Moreira, although a PS MP, is daughter of former CDS leader, Adriano Moreira. Ms Moreira has thanked Assunção Cristas for her apologies.

Also, a story about the ongoing feud between Madonna and the mayor of Sintra. Singer Madonna was shooting a video clip in an 19th century palace in Sintra, when Sintra city hall received a request to let a horse get inside the palace. Sintra city hall was shocked by the request and said no to Madonna. Madonna then made pressure over the mayor of Sintra, Basílio Horta (PS), and he also said no, adding "there are things that money cannot pay". Madonna and her team tried to change the mind of the mayor and even thought of talking to António Costa in order for him to make some kind of pressure over Basílio Horta, but the decision was final.

Madonna now accuses Portugal of ingratitude and some foreign outlets, like the Huffington Post, write that Madonna will leave Portugal because of this incident, while Portuguese media says this is just one of the reasons Madonna will leave Portugal, the main being she's bored in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Projection of seat distribution by district for the October general elections: (compared with 2015)

  5 Azores
16 Aveiro
  3 Beja
19 Braga
  3 Bragança
  4 Castelo Branco
  9 Coimbra
  3 Évora
  9 Faro
  3 Guarda (-1)
10 Leiria
48 Lisbon (+1)
  6 Madeira
  2 Portalegre
40 Porto (+1)
  9 Santarém
18 Setúbal
  6 Viana do Castelo
  5 Vila Real
  8 Viseu (-1)
  2 Europe
  2 Outside Europe

This is a projection done with the numbers of registered voters in early 2019. The official distribution will be known in June/July, but the Electoral Commission says that the final distribution may be equal to this projection.

[Mike88]

What's the minimum threshold to get a seat? With those seats, it would be around 1.75% de facto (in order to get 1 for Lisbon)

In Lisbon, yes, you would have to get around 1.7/1.8% to win a seat, while in Porto, 2% plus a bit more would be enough to win a seat. Overall, the threshold to win seats, by district, and according to my math, is the following: (with a small margin of error)

15.1% Azores
  6.0% Aveiro
20.0% Beja
  4.5% Braga
19.0% Bragança
17.7% Castelo Branco
  8.0% Coimbra
19.0% Évora
  8.0% Faro
18.0% Guarda
  7.5% Leiria
  1.8% Lisbon
10.0% Madeira
22.0% Portalegre
  2.1% Porto
  8.0% Santarém
  4.5% Setúbal
11.8% Viana do Castelo
15.0% Vila Real
  8.5% Viseu
23.0% Europe
23.0% Outside Europe

Of course, and because of the rules of the D'Hondt method, the margin between the first and second parties can change a bit the % threshold in districts that elect 2 or 3 MPs, for example.

[Mike88]

Alliance in crisis? Many members are leaving the party disappointed with Santana Lopes:

Pedro Santana Lopes new party, Alliance, seems to be, according to the press, in a bit of a crisis. Many party members are disappointed with Santana Lopes and his lack of leadership. At least two high profile members left the party, with one even apologizing to everyone he asked to join the Alliance, saying it was mistake. Another former party member, that left the party this week, accused Santana Lopes of "lack of professionalism" and of leading a bunch of amateurs.

The Alliance also has problems in Madeira, where there's an ongoing leadership battle for the branch of the party there. According to the media, the party chose a new party team with a new leader, but the current leader refuses to leave and step aside.