Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Are there wings of the respective parties that advocate an end to the alliance/looser ties?

You're asking about the PS, BE and PCP, right?

[Mike88]

Are there wings of the respective parties that advocate an end to the alliance/looser ties?

You're asking about the PS, BE and PCP, right?

No, PSD/CDS. Alliance was perhaps too strong a word though there's been one often enough.

By all means write about the other too though

No, i don't think there are wings of both parties that want to cease alliance between both of them. Of course, the PSD would always like to win an election with an absolute majority, dispensing the CDS, but that's pretty much impossible. Both parties like working with each other and, as i said they in an other post, support each other. For example, the CDS is very weak at local elections, so to overcome this weakness and lack of local representation, the CDS celebrates many local government alliances with the PSD (and also other smaller parties) with the finality of electing members to the city council, parish council. And the PSD also benefits from this because then you have an united center-right front against all left to leftwing parties, who run alone, and, therefore, helps PSD/CDS win elections. Both parties, at the end of the day need each other, so an end to these alliances between PSD/CDS is not even thought.

The PS, BE and PCP, well, that's a whole different story. Many wings in the PS don't stand the idea of governing with the BE or PCP. Although it has been surprising the certain stability this coalition has, it's not a marriage that will last long. The BE has also wings who disapprove the shift in the party from protest to governance, at the same time the Communists have every day conflicting messages about what they want. In summary, if polls are correct, the PS will win the next election with a confortable margin from the PSD, in which will trigger possibly a leadership change in the PSD (if not sooner) and then the "dream" of the President of the Republic of an PS/PSD reformist cooperation might come true. But today, the three parties are conformed with working together but it's not an easy task because of all the noise and suspicion between the three.

[Mike88]

Update on the political scene:

The PSD 2018 leadership race has began. Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto, made a series of interviews this week in which he said that he's considering a bid for the PSD leadership in 2018. This is not the first time he says he's considering running, in fact it's like the 4th time, but this time around he may be more serious. The 2017 local elections are going to be crucial for Passos Coelho.

Also, the public bank Caixa Geral Depósitos drama is yet to be resolved. After the newly appointed chairman of the bank, and his administration, refused to released their tax returns, the Constitutional Court has given 60 days to show them and if they don't, three consequences could occur: Loss of mandate, dismissal or judicial removal. The Government is already preparing for a complete shake up of the administration and the most likely successor for António Domingues is the former health minister from the PSD/CDS government, Paulo Macedo. Also, not sure what will be the fate of the Finance minister after this is over because he was the main culprit by accepting the conditions set by António Domingues and by not consulting the cabinet. Rumors say that by January, he will he gone.

[Mike88]

The ERC (the official database of polls) released the details of the Aximage poll from November.

Interesting numbers:

Prefered PM:

Costa: 55,4%
Passos Coelho: 30,8%

but if Rui Rio were to be elected leader of the PSD:

Costa: 48,1%
Rui Rio: 43,0%

[Mike88]

Update on the political situation:

Last week was a good week for the government and the country. The economy surpassed every expectations and grew 1.6% in comparison with last year and the EU approved the draft budget added with the news that Portugal will not suffer sanctions because of the 2015 deficit. Of course, this was a terrible week for the leader of the PSD, Passos Coelho. He has been attacked from every side, including his own party, for being too pessimistic and for announcing the arrival of "the devil", plus adding the really bad poll numbers for the PSD. Things are not looking very good for Mr. Coelho.

But, this week starts with very weird policies from the government. First, it was announced that precarious workers within the public sector will be given an official contract thus becoming normal public employees. But here's the problem, no one knows how many people this includes, with estimates saying 100,000 workers!, and this also violates the public sector code in which for every 2 employees gone, one is hired. And finally, the government didn't specified how much will this cost. Frankly, work precariousness is a horrible thing, but this solution is just awful.
Second, the government announced today that an old debt that Carris, Lisbon public bus company, had, will be assumed by the state. Problem? It is around 800 million euros that will be probably be added to the also record high debt %, that today achieved a record 133% of gdp.
Adding to this was the WTF statement by the PM, that Carris does not exist to have profit but to serve people. What??

links:
The PM weird statement
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/empresas/transportes/detalhe/antonio-costa-carris-nao-e-para-produzir-ebitda-e-para-transportar-pessoas

The Carris deal with the state
http://expresso.sapo.pt/economia/2016-11-21-Estado-fica-com-a-divida-historica-da-Carris

[Mike88]

What worries me Watermelon, is the financial sustainability of the state. It's not a matter of leftwing or rightwing in my opinion, it's a case of basic economics. When you have a state where 80% of all it's revenue goes to pensions and salaries, you need to be very carefull on using the money and the problem about this policies, who have good intentions no doubt, are the very weak financial base they have and that worries me as a taxpayer.

About Carris and the PM statement, public transport companies here in Portugal are a complete mess. They are literally bankrupt for decades and only survive by government bailout. The most shocking cases are Carris, STCP (Porto bus company) and the Lisbon subway. Why are they in this mess? For years, these companies were used as political weapons by the PSD and PS to gain power and to distribute "jobs for the boys". The previous government wanted to privatize this companies but their efforts failed when the PS took over office, although there are lawsuits filed by the companies that won the contests against the government, let's see how this ends. The PS wants to municipalize public transport companies, but because the companies are so indebted someone has to keep the debt. Townships don't want more debt because they have enough debt of their own, so the state has to come for the rescue.  

[Mike88]

The 2017 local election are only in early October, but parties are already negotiating deals and announcing candidates. The PSD and CDS will sign very soon a series of coalition agreements in more than 50 municipalties, although this number could increase in the next few mouths. But the main discussion right now is who will the PSD support in Lisbon and Porto.

• In Lisbon, Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, has already come forward and is seeking the support of the PSD, who are having a really hard time finding someone to run. As time passes, the possibility of the PSD supporting Cristas grows and adding to this are the internal numbers from both parties pointing that Cristas looks poised to unseat Fernando Medina, the PS candidate.
• In Porto, the story is completely different. Rui Moreira, the independent mayor, has his reelection practically in the bag and an internal war is going on in the local PSD. Some want the PSD to support Moreira, others want the PSD to have a candidate of their own. And, like in Lisbon, the PSD is having a hard time finding someone to run, because nobody want to take the heat in an already lost election.

Both PSD and PS have cities already in the bag.
The PSD will probably hold Braga, Bragança, Aveiro, Viseu, Guarda, Cascais and Famalicão with the possibility of retaking Leiria.
The PS will hold Gaia, Odivelas, Gondomar, Sintra, Viana do Castelo, Guimarães and Santo Tirso. Not sure about Coimbra, Funchal and Barcelos. These 3 cities are tossup in my opinion and could swung in either way.

In the next months more news and candidacies will be announced and very soon we will have the first real polls.

http://observador.pt/2016/11/21/psd-e-cds-ja-preparam-acordo-autarquico-para-2017/

[Mike88]

What worries me Watermelon, is the financial sustainability of the state. It's not a matter of leftwing or rightwing in my opinion, it's a case of basic economics. When you have a state where 80% of all it's revenue goes to pensions and salaries, you need to be very carefull on using the money and the problem about this policies, who have good intentions no doubt, are the very weak financial base they have and that worries me as a taxpayer.

About Carris and the PM statement, public transport companies here in Portugal are a complete mess. They are literally bankrupt for decades and only survive by government bailout. The most shocking cases are Carris, STCP (Porto bus company) and the Lisbon subway. Why are they in this mess? For years, these companies were used as political weapons by the PSD and PS to gain power and to distribute "jobs for the boys". The previous government wanted to privatize this companies but their efforts failed when the PS took over office, although there are lawsuits filed by the companies that won the contests against the government, let's see how this ends. The PS wants to municipalize public transport companies, but because the companies are so indebted someone has to keep the debt. Townships don't want more debt because they have enough debt of their own, so the state has to come for the rescue.  

If they are organized as companies why cant they just go bankrupt and their assets bought my the municipalities? (or the state)

Because they are companies already owned by the state, but who have an administration of it's own.

[Mike88]

On one hand the government has been a positive surprise in several aspects, but on another one their ideologically motivated but fiscally dodgy policies are worrisome.

Yet while Passos leads the PSD there's no real alternative, his strategy of doing nothing but predicting doom and waiting for the "inevitable" collapse of the left-wing alliance and for power to fall back on his lap has been an epic fail. Not many more people apart from the ones who already voted for PàF in 2015 are willing to give him another chance and I think that drags CDS down as well to some extent given their informal alliance with PSD. But I'm not sure if Rio challenging him would be very smart given that PSD is likely to lose the next election anyway (although of course everything can change meanwhile).

I hope PSD will decide to back Moreira and Cristas in the local elections. The 3 party "government" in Porto (where I live atm) is quite funny but also pretty good, and I think it's time for a power change in Lisbon.

Hey there Crals! nice to see you again!
I don't know if the PSD should support Moreira. I also live in the Porto area and he has been doing a great job and deserves reelection but i'm crossed about the idea of the PSD supporting him. The party is very divided at the moment. I think ultimately the party will present someone, but the vast majority of the PSD electorate in Porto will vote for Moreira. Let's see what happens.

[Mike88]

What worries me Watermelon, is the financial sustainability of the state. It's not a matter of leftwing or rightwing in my opinion, it's a case of basic economics. When you have a state where 80% of all it's revenue goes to pensions and salaries, you need to be very carefull on using the money and the problem about this policies, who have good intentions no doubt, are the very weak financial base they have and that worries me as a taxpayer.

About Carris and the PM statement, public transport companies here in Portugal are a complete mess. They are literally bankrupt for decades and only survive by government bailout. The most shocking cases are Carris, STCP (Porto bus company) and the Lisbon subway. Why are they in this mess? For years, these companies were used as political weapons by the PSD and PS to gain power and to distribute "jobs for the boys". The previous government wanted to privatize this companies but their efforts failed when the PS took over office, although there are lawsuits filed by the companies that won the contests against the government, let's see how this ends. The PS wants to municipalize public transport companies, but because the companies are so indebted someone has to keep the debt. Townships don't want more debt because they have enough debt of their own, so the state has to come for the rescue.  

If they are organized as companies why cant they just go bankrupt and their assets bought my the municipalities? (or the state)

Because they are companies already owned by the state, but who have an administration of it's own.

A company owned by the state can go bankrupt, it just depends how it is organized. You could transform them into limited companies with the state as sole shareholder before you did it, if necessary.

Some state own companies have indeed gone bankrupt, Parque Escolar is one of the most notorious. The problem, like you said, is organization. One of the main solutions to the bad financial situation of public companies in Portugal is to give the management of the company to a private entity, that invests in the company, while the state stays with the debt (i think in some cases you can transform the debt into capital if banks agree to it), as it will not have to invest public money in the companies. The problem with this solution is that infuriate workers unions who will lose power and influence in the companies.
I think i this is what you've been arguing, right?

[Mike88]

Like i said in an earlier post, the 2017 local elections are already in all of the parties minds. The PSD and their indecision on who to run or support in Lisbon and Porto is making headlines but apparently the PS is in a not so different situation.

The PS's local convention, which was schedule to be next month, was postponed to March because of difficulties in choosing candidates in various cities. Many of them are cases of infighting in the local's PS, but according to Expresso newspaper in cities like Barcelos, Vizela (a PS stronghold) and Matosinhos, the PS is having a really hard time is trying to find consensus candidates. Barcelos and Vizela, if this internal fight in the PS isn't well resolved, could swung to the PSD.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-11-23-Rebeldes-atrapalham-escolhas-autarquicas-do-PS

[Mike88]

Poll from Universidade Católica/CESOP to RTP/ Diário de Noticias/Jornal de Noticias



http://www.jn.pt/nacional/interior/socialistas-proximos-da-maioria-absoluta-5517029.html

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 November. Polled 977 voters. Mo E of 3.1%

[Mike88]

Here's the popularity ratings:


The popularity numbers are somewhat expected, although i don't understand very well the way UCP gives it's grades, because Coelho has a 55% positive view.

[Mike88]

Perhaps. Because he's leader of the PSD for almost 7 years, he has become a very divisive figure. But it's curious that he's as popular now as he was in December 2015. Interesting.

[Mike88]

Ours portogueses agents can give opinion because BE and CDU are down in the polls?

Probably, tactical voting for the PS. Maybe, some parts of the electorate who voted for BE/CDU in 2015 don't see a difference in policy between the two and the PS, so they may be inclined to vote PS and because to prevent the PSD to come any where close to the PS.

[Mike88]

In other news, today, Parliament was, apparently, almost suspended because of a heated exchange of words between the government and the PSD. The theme, of course, was the non ending drama called Caixa Geral de Depósitos (public bank). The PSD was accusing the government of bad management, again, on this issue and then the secretary of Finances, curiously José Mourinho cousin, responded by saying that the PSD MP had a temporary cognitive dysfunction, or in other words, he was a retarded. For 7 minutes the Speaker wasn't able to control the fury of PSD MP's who were demanding a retraction from the secretary.

More here:

http://observador.pt/2016/11/25/felix-a-mourinho-incendeia-bancada-adversaria-no-parlamento/

[Mike88]

The long soap opera called Caixa Geral de Depósitos (public bank) pretty much ended today. The newly appointed President of the bank, António Rogrigues, resigned after realising he doesn't have the support of the government and the President of the Republic even if he had revealed his tax returns. Despite of this, his term as president will only end in late-December and a new president for the bank will probably be known in late January or early February 2017.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-11-27-Antonio-Domingues-demitiu-se-da-Caixa-Geral-de-Depositos-1

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for the European Institute of the Faculty of Law of Lisbon

Do you think that Portugal should continue in the Euro?

Yes: 89.7%
No: 6.7%
DK: 3.6%

Do you think that the European Union will survive the current crisis?

Yes: 64.6%
No: 20.5%
DK: 14.9%

Do you think that the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union has consequences for Portugal?

Yes: 55.9%
No: 29.5%
DK: 14.6%

Do you agree with the reception of refugees?

Yes: 73.0%
No: 18.7%
DK: 8.3%

Conducted between 2 and 3 November. Polled 1,016 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://institutoeuropeu.eu/noticias/noticias-do-instituto-europeu/432-sondagem-o-que-os-portugueses-pensam-sobre-a-integracao-europeia

[Mike88]

Fonebus poll for Marktest: Trump presidency - Portuguese anticipate negative impact for Europe.

In your opinion, Donald's Trump presidency will have, for Europe, what kind of impact:

Negative: 38%
Very Negative: 19%
Neither Positive or Negative: 16%
Positive: 5%
DK: 22%

In your opinion, Donald's Trump presidency will have, for Portugal, what kind of impact:

Neither Positive or Negative: 33%
Negative: 31%
Very Negative: 8%
Positive: 4%
DK: 24%

Conducted between 16 and 20 November. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.46%

http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/n/id~2178.aspx

[Mike88]

The college degrees fiasco continues to roll heads in the government. Today a total of 2 secretaries, one from the ministry of Parliament Affairs and another from the Ministry of the Sea, have resigned after an inspection of all curriculum's of secretaries order by the government, showed that they made up or lied about their college degrees. The secretary from the Ministry of Parliament Affair, called herself as licensed and with Bachelor degree, but when asked to prove it she said she had no way to prove it. The other one from the Ministry of the Sea, didn't lied about his degree but he wrote is his appointment order that he in 2005 enrolled in the Lusofona University but because of intense professional activity, he couldn't show up in class. Apparently this went viral in social media after the 1st college fisaco in september as a proof of the lack of rigor in António Costa's cabinet. The Sea minister didn't like this reference and she asked the secretary to resign.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/revista-de-imprensa/2016-11-30-Mais-duas-baixas-no-Governo-por-causa-das-licenciaturas

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party divided it's votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party it's their votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

You could say that Portugal is under "eternal 2016" conditions .

Well ... you could put it that way but, at the same time, we still have a lot of economic problems and any worldwide shock, or even european, would hurt us very deeply. We are still very vulnerable.

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party it's their votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

You could say that Portugal is under "eternal 2016" conditions .

Well ... you could put it that way but, at the same time, we still have a lot of economic problems and any worldwide shock, or even european, would hurt us very deeply. We are still very vulnerable.

Yeah.
What was the last epoch Portueguese remembered to be great anyway? Early-mid 2000s?

No, it was mainly between 1987 and 1999. It was the time of the "fat cows", when fresh money from the EU helped develop the economy, infrastructure, living conditions and everybody was happy and full of hope. But then, the bill arrived and... well... the rest is history.