2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Lord Halifax]

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

[Lord Halifax]

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

30%

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

20%

so 0%

I was hoping for a reply from someone with actual knowledge about the state's electoral demography.

[Lord Halifax]

Are the military ballots likely to be upwards of 60% Dem?

No, military ballots skew R. They're basically all that's keeping Trump alive in GA once Clayton drops the rest of its' vote.

Apparently that's not the case in GA where they skew heavily AA.

[Lord Halifax]

Biden's lead in AZ now just shy ok 30K. What do you guys think?

From what I can gather, AZ is probably Trump's best shot at winning one of the four big remaining states but it's still not likely given how well he'll need to do with the remaining Maricopa votes.

How many uncounted ballots are there?

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/benyc/status/1325096265911324678

Seems like the remaining Maricopa vote is from AZ-6 and AZ-9

Good for Biden?

[Lord Halifax]

Eh, guys, if 116.000 ballots are left AZ-wide and Trump just netted 7.5k out of a 48.5k dump, that means he's on track to net 18k out of the remaining.

The current Biden lead is 20k and outside Maricopa, the state is more Trump-leaning ...

This will go down the wire.

Tender, I hope you will understand why giving your non-stop lucre addled do my resume over the past weeks that no one takes your posts with any credibility whatsoever.

I don't really care what you think.

I want

A) that Biden wins the Presidency (looking very good now with the CNN call)
B) and I want my 1.000€ from various bets and for this, it would need a Trump AZ win

Nobody cares about your stupid bet. Shut up about it.

[Lord Halifax]

Susan Collins would, unironically, be a fairly good and qualified Transportation secretary in a Biden administration.

Clever trick if it works. Could the same be done in Pennsylvania with Toomey? Might be worth putting a few Republicans in the Cabinet if it gets a sneaky Senate majority.

There's no way any Republican Senator would agree to this unless their state has a Republican governor or if the Democratic governor is bound by law to appoint another Republican. This idea stands zero chance of working.

You never know. The right kind of senator might take the deal. The right kind of power-hungry. If Brian Kemp was a Senator he'd take the Cabinet position in a second.

Burr is retiring in 2022, he may be willing to leave early for a Cabinet position (or Ambassador to Italy or whatever he fancies).

Aside from his being a walking-&-talking ethics controversy, Cooper would be forced to appoint a Republican, so that would pretty much render such a plan moot.

Too bad, I was thinking of him because he seems to have no principles.

[Lord Halifax]

Can we split up this thread into "CELEBRATION" posts and posts related to actual results and exit polls?  There are still votes being counted and some of us come here to get updates.

Tried making a celebrations thread, but I doubt people will use it.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411612.0

[Lord Halifax]

 the number of uncounted ballots remaining in Arizona:
Uncounted votes in AZ, according to The Arizona Republic:

About 43,761 ballots in Maricopa County, including 15,000 provisionals.
About 18,700 in Pima County, including 18,000 provisionals.
Roughly 23,000 in Pinal County, including 1,800 provisionals.
About 2,150 in Yuma County.
More than 3,000 ballots in Yavapai County.
Roughly 600 ballots in Coconino County.
Less than 500 in Navajo County.
About 900 in La Paz County.
Less than 400 in Gila County.
Less than 100 in Graham County.
Mohave County only has provisional ballots left to count, but the number remains unclear.

What's the likely outcome based on this?

Maricopa regular, Maricopa provisionals, Pinal regular and Pima provisionals are the big ones, how are each of them likely to go?

[Lord Halifax]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

I expect 51-47 so maybe 7 million. 10 million is too much

Ofc, but anything over 7.5 mio. is closer to 10 than 5 so that's not particularly relevant.

[Lord Halifax]

Arizona gonna come down to 3-5k Biden lead I think, wow Fox/AP wont make the same mistake again

Only if Maricopa is very favorable for Trump and Pima doesn't give Biden a net gain. Seems unlikely.