Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Damn. Biden really is making this a party I can be proud of.

He won't be able to change it overnight, but he's definitely changing it.

Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer are not the heroes the Democratic Party wanted, but they are the heroes it needed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

Biden isn’t gonna push to have it removed, especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Then why would it get taken out of the House bill, if it passed the House with it? That logic works both ways.

Because flip happen towards what Biden wants through negotiation, not the other way around.

Well, then that begs the question: is not repealing the SALT-cap something that Biden would actively want & summarily push for behind-the-scenes as a result, or something that he & his team are passively suggesting that they'd prefer but can live without if need be? Because Swan's reporting on Axios was that Biden "doesn't plan to" repeal the cap & "is unlikely to propose" it, but just on the face of it, that sounds a lot closer to a passive "we'd rather you don't but it's not the end of the world if you do" (i.e. the perfect set-up for a situation in which Pelosi is sympathetic to repealing the cap & enough of her caucus is threatening to at least make detrimental noise without repeal) than an active "this is a dealbreaker, Joey's getting what Joey wants."

This.  SALT relief is the price some of the House Dems have set - and rather loudly at that - for voting for the bill (plus it’s clearly very important to Pelosi and Schumer).  There’s really no evidence that Biden or his inner circle care enough about this to have a serious fight over this issue, especially when it’s not clear the bill can pass the House w/o SALT relief.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

That might not be true if Democratic leadership was a little more willing to play hardball. If they can get everyone but Collin Peterson on board for impeachment, they can manage this. There are better uses of their political capital, of course, but there are also worse uses, and they actively pursue these from time to time.

This is a reliable, progressive revenue generator that is already in place and not beset by loopholes. Good federal governance is rare enough, so where it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Playing hardball isn’t the issue; the House Democratic leadership strongly supports SALT relief.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

That might not be true if Democratic leadership was a little more willing to play hardball. If they can get everyone but Collin Peterson on board for impeachment, they can manage this. There are better uses of their political capital, of course, but there are also worse uses, and they actively pursue these from time to time.

This is a reliable, progressive revenue generator that is already in place and not beset by loopholes. Good federal governance is rare enough, so where it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Playing hardball isn’t the issue; the House Democratic leadership strongly supports SALT relief.

That is an example of misuse of political capital (which undermines their electability claims).

The Biden administration does not support it, and so should push them. The base will polarise more easily around the president's position than the Speaker's.

There is no reason for Biden to choose SALT relief as a hill to die on when it’s clear the issue is a pretty low priority for him and a high priority for the Democratic congressional leadership as well as various lower-profile congress-critters whose votes we need.  You want the bill to pass the House?  Well, for better or worse, one of the prices for that is including SALT relief.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

That might not be true if Democratic leadership was a little more willing to play hardball. If they can get everyone but Collin Peterson on board for impeachment, they can manage this. There are better uses of their political capital, of course, but there are also worse uses, and they actively pursue these from time to time.

This is a reliable, progressive revenue generator that is already in place and not beset by loopholes. Good federal governance is rare enough, so where it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Playing hardball isn’t the issue; the House Democratic leadership strongly supports SALT relief.

That is an example of misuse of political capital (which undermines their electability claims).

The Biden administration does not support it, and so should push them. The base will polarise more easily around the president's position than the Speaker's.

There is no reason for Biden to choose SALT relief as a hill to die on when it’s clear the issue is a pretty low priority for him and a high priority for the Democratic congressional leadership as well as various lower-profile congress-critters whose votes we need.  You want the bill to pass the House?  Well, for better or worse, one of the prices for that is including SALT relief.

I’m not saying it’s the best thing to pick a fight over, but it’s clearly better than some of the things the Biden admin has fought over.

If they can call the failure to nominate Neera Tanden a structurally racist injustice, they can make a bit more noise about an attempt to scrap a perfectly decent means of redistribution.

And it’d be just that: noise

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yep, you got me this time, Joe.  I totally believe the guy with a history of performative faux-conservativism before towing the party line and who called for a $4 trillion bill to be paid for with tax increases on the wealthy and an increase in the corporate tax rate is gonna kill the bill b/c it raises the corporate tax rate a couple points too

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

White House considers splitting $3 trillion recovery plan into two bills

The Times reported that the president’s advisors will bring him a plan as soon as this week that would divide the recovery proposal into two planks. One would put money into boosting manufacturing, improving transportation systems, expanding broadband access and reducing carbon emissions, according to the newspaper.

The other would focus on reducing economic inequities through investments in paid leave, universal pre-K and community college, the report said. The administration is leaning toward pursuing a bipartisan infrastructure bill first, then trying to pass larger pieces of the economic package through budget reconciliation, which would only require Democratic votes in the Senate, according to NBC.

We don’t have time for this; the goal should be to pass as much as possible ASAP.  HB 1 really needs to be passed no later than August.  That means everything before it needs to operate on an expedited timeline; not a delayed one.  Biden’s infrastructure bill is extremely popular and the Republicans have no leverage.  Why waste invaluable time splitting it up?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The House shouldn’t even let this pile of garbage come to a vote unless the Senate passes a 4-5 trillion dollar reconciliation bill first. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1415659236546289668?s=21

I wish someone would tell him that if his constituents wanted a Republican to represent them in Congress, they would have voted for one.  They want a choice, not an echo. 

It’s probably Kurt Schrader

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1415659236546289668?s=21

I wish someone would tell him that if his constituents wanted a Republican to represent them in Congress, they would have voted for one.  They want a choice, not an echo.  

It’s probably Kurt Schrader

Our majority is small but its not so small one or even two people can prevent a bill from passing. Golden and Schrader wouldn't be enough so there has to be a third. Spanberger maybe?

Schrader makes the most sense.  He opposes the reconciliation bill and is likely trying to create the perception that it doesn’t have enough support in the House.  I don’t believe for a second that it doesn’t have the votes to pass in the House though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1415659236546289668?s=21

I wish someone would tell him that if his constituents wanted a Republican to represent them in Congress, they would have voted for one.  They want a choice, not an echo. 

It’s probably Kurt Schrader

Our majority is small but its not so small one or even two people can prevent a bill from passing. Golden and Schrader wouldn't be enough so there has to be a third. Spanberger maybe?

Possibly Stephanie Murphy?

Murphy wouldn’t make any sense and neither she nor Spanberger are gonna vote against the Dem-only infrastructure bill

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/1420444138734977024

Surely someone can primary her and still be electable in Arizona.

In that case, kill the “bipartisan” bill.  No sense letting that piece of crap pass the Senate unless we’re getting something that’s actually…you know…good for the country out of it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2021/07/28/arizona-sen-kyrsten-sinema-wont-back-democrats-3-5-trillion-reconciliation-bill/5402193001/

She probably supports 3.4 in the end.

Who gives a f***?  3.5 trillion reconciliation in exchange for her, Tester, and Manchin’s pet piece of crap was the deal, period.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

To whom is this supposed to appeal?

The Koch political network

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You all acting like getting this through isn't a massive accomplishment that will help the American people on its own smh.

That’s because it isn’t.  It’s a sh!t sandwich we were prepared to eat to get to $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Does anyone think Pelosi's threat to hold the infrastructure bill hostage to a reconciliation package will hold up? It seems to me she will have to accept what both Sinema and Manchin are willing to accept, and if it drags out, she might face a discharge petition to at least get the infrastructure bill passed. I don't think the hold hostage approach will be popular (particular if interest and inflation begin to inch up), and the optics are terrible. Team Sanders and Pelosi at least in public seem to act as if they have cards to play in their deck, that I at least can't discern myself.  Am I missing something here?

Yes, getting nothing is unambiguously better than passing something Sinema wants enacted without getting significant progressive legislation passed in exchange.  If Manchin, Tester, and Sinema (R-AZ), aren’t going to keep their word then the House should kill their pet piece of crap.  The deal was their pet piece of crap in exchange for the $3.5 billion reconciliation bill.  The Democrats deserve to lose the House if the “bipartisan” piece of crap gets passed by Congress and the reconciliation bill doesn’t.

Biden can piss off too btw, he’s enabling this nonsense by acting like a passive, impotent bystander instead of a President.  He needs to take a less from Pelosi and Schumer and start doing his job for a change.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Manchin has “serious concerns” about the reconciliation bill’s effect on the deficit. At least it’s not a material objection and something Schumer and Pelosi can more easily massage into getting his support.

Cool, I’m sure Pelosi has “serious concerns” about bringing the infrastructure bill for a floor vote.  At least it won’t be a material objection and is something that Manchin and Sinema can more easily massage into getting a vote on the bill.  Seriously, Manchin and Sinema can go piss up a rope; it’s bad enough they’ve voted to put non-binding poison pill amendments in the reconciliation bill.  The deal was $3.5 trillion reconciliation in exchange for their pet piece of crap.  I get that they’re narcissistic brats (especially Sinema), but…it’s the Senate…I’m pretty sure most of their colleagues are too.  They’re not special.

If they neuter the reconciliation bill, it’d be better to blow up the faux-reconciliation bill and the infrastructure bill.  At that point, we’re gonna lose Congress either way at that point, so we might as well go out giving the finger to those two twits.  However this shakes out, I have to say, kudos to the House Progressive Caucus for (as Republicans like to say) picking a hostage worth taking.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If they neuter the reconciliation bill, it’d be better to blow up the faux-reconciliation bill and the infrastructure bill.

So you would rather have nothing?

I don’t think people should bark unless they’re prepared to bite.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If they neuter the reconciliation bill, it’d be better to blow up the faux-reconciliation bill and the infrastructure bill.

So you would rather have nothing?

I don’t think people should bark unless they’re prepared to bite.

No.

That's like wearing a suicide vest and demanding money.

No, it’s basic negotiating 101