Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why Klobuchar should be Biden's vice presidential pick

But given the key roles that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin played in electing Trump in the first place, the single most compelling rationale for a VP choice will be regional — that is, finding a candidate who will help Biden in specific Midwestern and Great Lakes states where the 2020 election will be won or lost.

Of these, Pennsylvania and Michigan already show strong signs of trending Democratic. Michigan Democrats netted two additional U.S. House seats in the 2018 mid-terms, as well as electing Gov. Gretchen Whitmire, who remains a strong VP option after being named co-chair of Biden’s campaign. Yet just last week Michigan voters gave Biden a resounding primary victory by more than 16 percent, and polls show Biden with a solid lead over Trump there.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats also netted three House seats in 2018, and made huge gains among suburban women. Polls give Biden a steady lead in the Keystone state as well, which of course includes Biden’s boyhood home of Scranton. Among other traditional Midwestern swing states, Trump won Ohio by a whopping 8 points in 2016, so the Buckeye state will probably stay out of reach for Democrats, unless Biden presides over a wave election.

Not only that, but Klobuchar is among the few Democrats who would be most helpful in bordering Wisconsin, the single state most likely to decide a close election, and one with which Minnesota has a unique cultural affinity. While polls show a very narrow Biden lead over Trump in Wisconsin (and Democrats did defeat Republican Gov. Scott Walker in 2018), analysts from both parties say Wisconsin will probably be the single closest state in country come November, which is precisely why Democrats will be holding their convention in Milwaukee.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/488850-why-klobuchar-should-be-bidens-vp-pick

Klownbachar is an obnoxious, egomaniacal scumbag who can best be described as a more inauthentic and less likable version of Hillary Clinton.  She’s easily the second worst pick Biden could make after Stacy Abrams.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Any of the Democratic primary contenders would be train wreck VP picks for Biden.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/KamalaReactions/status/1247934940899147777?s=20

Booooooooo!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Whitmer, CCM, or Duckworth would all be good picks for different reasons.  Baldwin needlessly risks a Senate seat.  Klobouchar (*barf*) would add nothing whatsoever, but probably wouldn’t be a disaster either (although she could depress turnout).  Harris would be a Dan Quayle tier pick: a bad pick who would definitely hurt Biden, but also wouldn’t do any irreparable damage.  Warren and Abrams would be Eagleton-level disasters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some clues:

1.  Biden has said he wants a running mate with whom he is "simpatico" ideologically.
2.  He wants someone who is ready to step into the presidency immediately if need be.
3.  He wants someone who has strength in areas where he is weak or inexperienced.
4.  He said a running mate who has experience being a presidential candidate is "important."

Elizabeth Warren fails badly on the "simpatico" criteria.  She and Biden have been arguing over the issues for decades.   She does well under the other three criteria.  Additionally, there is the problem of temporarily surrendering her Senate seat to the GOP due to the GOP governor there.

Tammy Duckworth does well on the first three criteria:  simpatico, ready to be president and contrasting experience (Biden has never served in the military).  However, she has never run as a presidential candidate.

Catherine Cortez Masto is similar to Duckworth.  She fits the first three criteria but has never run as a presidential candidate.

Amy Klobuchar is simpatico, ready to be president and has run a presidential campaign.  However, most would say that she fails the "contrasting strengths" test -- she and Biden are too similar.

Kamala Harris appears to fit all four criteria.

What strengths does Harris bring to the table in areas where Biden is weak or inexperienced.  I don't see what she brings to the table to begin with, much less in areas where Biden is weak.  I mean, I suppose one could point to the fact that she's an African-American woman, but Biden already has far stronger support in the African-American community than she does and everyone Biden is considering is a woman.  I don't see any upside to picking Harris, but maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some clues:

1.  Biden has said he wants a running mate with whom he is "simpatico" ideologically.
2.  He wants someone who is ready to step into the presidency immediately if need be.
3.  He wants someone who has strength in areas where he is weak or inexperienced.
4.  He said a running mate who has experience being a presidential candidate is "important."

Elizabeth Warren fails badly on the "simpatico" criteria.  She and Biden have been arguing over the issues for decades.   She does well under the other three criteria.  Additionally, there is the problem of temporarily surrendering her Senate seat to the GOP due to the GOP governor there.

Tammy Duckworth does well on the first three criteria:  simpatico, ready to be president and contrasting experience (Biden has never served in the military).  However, she has never run as a presidential candidate.

Catherine Cortez Masto is similar to Duckworth.  She fits the first three criteria but has never run as a presidential candidate.

Amy Klobuchar is simpatico, ready to be president and has run a presidential campaign.  However, most would say that she fails the "contrasting strengths" test -- she and Biden are too similar.

Kamala Harris appears to fit all four criteria.

What strengths does Harris bring to the table in areas where Biden is weak or inexperienced.  I don't see what she brings to the table to begin with, much less in areas where Biden is weak.  I mean, I suppose one could point to the fact that she's an African-American woman, but Biden already has far stronger support in the African-American community than she does and everyone Biden is considering is a woman.  I don't see any upside to picking Harris, but maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing here.

Because black turnout needs to be turbo-charged to beat Trump? Biden is already strong with blacks and suburban women/college-educated whites, but Harris is probably the one most to be able to turnout even more among those two groups, especially with the history making possibility of a black woman being VP.

Biden isn't strong with college-educated/suburban voters of either gender, nor is Harris for that matter.  These folks were the O'Rourke -> Harris -> Warren -> Buttigieg voters.  They just wanted someone other than Biden or Bernie, but when forced to pick between the two, they opted for Biden.  The only 2020 presidential candidate suburban Democrats really got excited about as something more than a "anti-Bernie candidate not named Joe Biden" was Buttigieg, who had this group's enthusiastic support on his own merits.  

In Harris' case, all it took was one weak debate performance for these voters to drop her like a bad habit and even before that, they never really got fully behind her the way they did with Buttigieg and Warren during their respective surges.  Granted, these folks finally came out in force for Biden, but that was about one thing: defeating Bernie.  These voters were consistently far more resistant to Biden since the first debate than any other non-Berniecrat group in the Democratic Party.

Honestly, none of the folks under consideration have much appeal to this group, but Abrams and Warren would actively hurt Biden with them at this point, plus the latter would give Republicans a free Senate seat.  Harris isn't exactly held in the highest regard by these voters, even if she wouldn't actively hurt Biden with them.  

As for African-American turnout, if they never showed the slightest interest in backing Harris over Biden in 2020 during her campaign's high point, how is she supposed to turbocharge African-American turnout in the GE?  The simple fact is that no one is going to get Obama-level African-American voter enthusiasm again, period.  That doesn't mean 2016 is the norm, but trying to recreate that is a fool's errand.

If you want an experienced "ready to go from day one" pick then Duckworth is the best pick.  If you want to boost turnout  with a key demographic group, then CCM is the way to go.  If you want to pick someone who will help Biden in a key state, then Whitmer is the best pick (same goes if you want to make Trump's Coronavirus response a major issue during the campaign).  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1249099143638736896

Gross

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Choosing black woman as running mate could boost Biden popularity in battleground states, poll finds

More than half of black voters in eight states have said they would be more enthusiastic or more likely to vote for Joe Biden if he picked a black woman as his running mate.

The information comes from a new poll conducted for the advocacy group BlackPAC by Politico.

The poll concerns the key battleground states of Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

https://us.yahoo.com/news/2020-election-choosing-black-woman-160927427.html

So says BlackPAC

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’ve been saying Abrams was an overhyped, entitled clown ever since she refused to accept that she lost the Governor’s race fair and square, so I now accept my accolades

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’ve been saying Abrams was an overhyped, entitled clown ever since she refused to accept that she lost the Governor’s race fair and square, so I now accept my accolades

She conceded, so it's not like she didn't accept it. It's a fact that Kemp had his thumb on the scale by throwing voters off the rolls and Abrams is right to point that out because it can happen again this year.

Abrams didn't acknowledge the legitimacy of the election that she lost.  Kemp did not steal the Governorship from her, the voters chose to elect him.  Her inability to accept that was itself disqualifying for even a cabinet post, much less VP.  She has no respect for the democratic process.  Frankly, the Democrats would be wise not to run her again in 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’ve been saying Abrams was an overhyped, entitled clown ever since she refused to accept that she lost the Governor’s race fair and square, so I now accept my accolades

She conceded, so it's not like she didn't accept it. It's a fact that Kemp had his thumb on the scale by throwing voters off the rolls and Abrams is right to point that out because it can happen again this year.

Abrams didn't acknowledge the legitimacy of the election that she lost.  Kemp did not steal the Governorship from her, the voters chose to elect him.  Her inability to accept that was itself disqualifying for even a cabinet post, much less VP.  She has no respect for the democratic process.  Frankly, the Democrats would be wise not to run her again in 2022.

Local Dimmycrat loves Brian Kemp and voter suppression!

Okay, you got me!  Calling Kemp a pathetic and morally bankrupt excuse for an SoS, one of the worst governors in the country, and supporting Abrams in 2018 were all just part of my cover.  Obviously I love Kemp and voter suppression  I mean, what kind of DINO dimmycrat would prioritize the rule of law and respecting the sanctity of the electoral process - even when their candidate lost - over mindless partisan hackery

I’ve been saying Abrams was an overhyped, entitled clown ever since she refused to accept that she lost the Governor’s race fair and square, so I now accept my accolades

She conceded, so it's not like she didn't accept it. It's a fact that Kemp had his thumb on the scale by throwing voters off the rolls and Abrams is right to point that out because it can happen again this year.

Abrams didn't acknowledge the legitimacy of the election that she lost.  Kemp did not steal the Governorship from her, the voters chose to elect him.  Her inability to accept that was itself disqualifying for even a cabinet post, much less VP.  She has no respect for the democratic process.  Frankly, the Democrats would be wise not to run her again in 2022.

Throwing voters off the rolls while you are running for Governor is cheating. But I'm not going to argue about it with you about it because you clearly don't see that it was a problem what Kemp did.

Oh boy, more bad-faith misrepresentations of what I’ve said, lucky me  

Anyway, I’ll bite.  Obviously, Kemp was a piss-poor SoS and did plenty of bad things in this capacity, what you described being one of them.  However, no laws were broken and the incident you referred to did not change the fact that the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election was still a legitimate election whose results should be respected.  Alas, it would seem Abrams has the emotional maturity of a middle schooler.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CCM, Duckworth, and Whitmer are the good options; the rest suck

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

I mean...there is a candidate that could get both the AA vote and the youth vote, but she is the ultimate dark horse. Pressely is a freshman and lacks legislative credentials, but she does have some leadership experience from Boston. She doesn't come from a swing state, but she has key ties to both groups. However, she is the ultimate dark horse and her selection would be more in line with Romney's choice of Ryan. Biden would need to have full trust of Warren and Kerry, probably requiring Kerry to be on the vetting committee, in order to push her forwards.

I agree; she hasn't gotten a lot of attention as a potential running mate, but I think Pressley is a great sleeper pick if Biden's main goal is to energize youth turnout and court the left wing of the party. And personally, I think she'd be a much better pick than Abrams.

Same issues as Abrams, she'd be at least a Trump-level anathema to suburban whites and Biden needs turbocharged suburban white - a group he's always been pretty weak with - turnout far more than he needs turbocharged Berniecrats.  True, this doesn't mean his VP pick needs to pander them, but it can't be so odious to them that they don't give him the numbers he needs to compensate for turbo-charged WWC turnout.  For this reason, Pressley, Abrams are non-starters and while I don't know enough about her to say, it is a possible risk with Demmings (although she may be fine in this respect). 

This is also probably going to be a big problem if he picks Warren, tbh.  Plus, Warren is damaged goods at this point and would probably hurt more than she helps. It can't be Baldwin b/c it risks a Senate seat and Biden already said he's picking someone who shares his views on healthcare.

Harris and especially Klobachar would piss off Berniecrats the way that Abrams or Pressley or even Warren would actively piss off suburban whites.  Whitmer, Duckworth, and CCM are all picks that every faction of the party should be able to at least live with.  At this point, CCM and Whitmer are probably the best picks.  Duckworth would've been good before COVID, but I think seeing someone with a physical disability will make voters think of Biden's age too much and play into that talking point, especially during a public health crisis (much as I hate it).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

I mean...there is a candidate that could get both the AA vote and the youth vote, but she is the ultimate dark horse. Pressely is a freshman and lacks legislative credentials, but she does have some leadership experience from Boston. She doesn't come from a swing state, but she has key ties to both groups. However, she is the ultimate dark horse and her selection would be more in line with Romney's choice of Ryan. Biden would need to have full trust of Warren and Kerry, probably requiring Kerry to be on the vetting committee, in order to push her forwards.

I agree; she hasn't gotten a lot of attention as a potential running mate, but I think Pressley is a great sleeper pick if Biden's main goal is to energize youth turnout and court the left wing of the party. And personally, I think she'd be a much better pick than Abrams.

Same issues as Abrams, she'd be at least a Trump-level anathema to suburban whites and Biden needs them overwhelmingly in his camp far more than he needs turbocharged Berniecrats.

Oh I agree, and I'd much rather go with several other candidates. My point is more that I'm surprised she isn't in the conversation, especially given that Abrams is.

I don't buy that Abrams is being seriously considered.  I think this is just Abrams trying to force herself into the conversation.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Didn’t Biden say some time last summer he’d look at Abrams for the VP nomination? This isn’t all coming from her.

No, that was also Abrams IIRC

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1253644839914287105

More people hyping up Abrams for some reason...

I mean, Sharpton is a race-baiting, anti-Semitic grifter, so being supported by him should really be a strike against Abrams if anything.  Also, I refuse to believe Pelosi is dumb enough to push Fudge for VP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Per the Atlantic, Abrams is not being seriously considered for VP.

https://politicalwire.com/2020/04/24/stacy-abrams-not-a-likely-pick-for-biden/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why isn’t Gillibrand in the mix?

The fact that she called on Franken to resign left a bad taste in the mouths of many Dem voters.  Also, she did very poorly in the presidential primary.

That's a damning indictment of the Democratic primary voters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why isn’t Gillibrand in the mix?

The fact that she called on Franken to resign left a bad taste in the mouths of many Dem voters.  Also, she did very poorly in the presidential primary.

This, plus with Tara Reade's accusations out there, it would be the height of hypocrisy for Gillibrand to accept a VP position.

Unlike the allegations Biden, the ones against Franken were true, so it wouldn’t be the least bit hypocritical.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The chaos agent in me wants it to be Warren.

I thought you wanted Biden to win? Are you back on our side?

Is it really even a “side“ if it’s just a handful of entitled ManChildren having a temper-tantrum?  I mean, the Bernie or Busters are collectively the political equivalent of a fruit fly and even that is probably giving them too much credit.  In any case, unlike you, Sawx is...you know...an actual progressive, so I’m sure he’s still going to do the right thing on Election Day.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1255532322440577037

Bad sign for Harris

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A Latino is a must.
Biden already has black support and he can get Kamala and Obama to campaign for him. He lacked Latino support in the primary (relative to Hillary) and needs to be aware of this weak spot. If Biden loses, it will be because he doesn’t listen/takes-for-granted Latino voters in the same way Hillary ignored some of her base.

Does an English-speaking half-Italian Senator whose paternal grandfather happened to immigrate from Mexico solve that problem?

Silence, Republican!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/lewoofl/status/1255665243969241088

This seems like wishful thinking on this twitter guy's part.  There's no reason to think this means Warren has ever been a top-tier contender - much less the frontrunner - for Biden's VP slot.  Abrams and Warren have been talked up by the media quite a bit, but it sounds like the folks under serious consideration are Harris, CCM, Klobachar, and Whitmer with Duckworth and maybe Warren being long-shot possibilities.  

If we're strictly reading between the lines of comments [both on and off the record] of people close to Biden's campaign, then Harris and CCM are probably the frontrunners with Klobachar also in the running (but well behind the first two).  Remember that Clyburn's initial insistence that Biden's running-mate be an African-American woman was only half the statement, Clyburn also said another women from another minority group was not good enough [which sure sounds like it was referring to CCM].  That Clyburn is now backing away from that comment suggests to me that CCM's stock [although theoretically he could have been referring to Duckworth] has risen enough in the Veepstakes that Clyburn considers her a more likely pick at this point than any of the African-American women under consideration and is trying to move the goalposts.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While it might turn some never Trumpers off, democrats love Warren. She could definitely help with the supposed enthusiasm gap.

Do they though?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Someone go check on Stacey Abrams.

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1260581705456500744?s=20

Yikes.  Well, that sucks!  In any case, if it really is between those two, then I pray to God Biden picks Harris because Klobachar is both a delusional, megalomaniacal, staff-abusing scumbag and someone who would really piss off a large segment of the Democratic Party for no reason.