Australia 2022 Election

[GoTfan]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Mate, the reality is that virtually no one is voting on lockdowns because we're not insane.

The only two parties explicitly anti-lockdown are Cliver Palmer's New Vanity Project and the Liberal Democrats. They are both tiny fringe parties polling less than the Greens.

[GoTfan]

Asides from the border restrictions, and with Melbourne as an unlucky exception, Australia and NZ did comparatively well at minimizing restrictions on the domestic population, as well as doing amazing comparatively at saving lives.

Luck had little to nothing to do with what we were subjected to here. It was all very deliberate (although also very haphazard and reckless) and has left a scar in many ordinary people in ways that will impact their voting behaviour for years.

You also leave out that restrictions in Melbourne and Sydney, interstate and overseas travel restrictions, etc impacted regional Australia economically and socially too. People in states without restrictions themselves had impacts cascading to them. Whether or not this is a net good when factoring in theoretical worst case death toll scenarios is irrelevant when it's what actually defined the last few years for you: not seeing family and friends, plans being ruined, losing income, just ballooning uncertainty everywhere.

Luckily for Labor the Australian population seem to be largely docile. There's no strong tradition of standing up for human rights. It's not something that activates a majority of people, unfortunately. However, there is still a portion of people who ought to be labor-leaning who have gone a little nutty because of the abuse they've endured. It is what it is.

Mate, the reality is that virtually no one is voting on lockdowns because we're not insane.

The only two parties explicitly anti-lockdown are Cliver Palmer's New Vanity Project and the Liberal Democrats. They are both tiny fringe parties polling less than the Greens.

The name of the party is really 'New Vanity Project.'?

No, it's just how I refer to it because that's all it is. I do have another name for it but there are people under 18 on here.

[GoTfan]

Back on topic ScoMo was filmed texting throughout the dawn service (and no surprise he went to a dawn service in a marginal Labor seat).

It'll be interesting to see how the Solomon's Stuff-Up affects things. Probably not much, but it does lay a bit of a smack on the Coalition's national security credentials, and China ear drum was one of their trump cards.

[GoTfan]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/solomon-islands-tells-japan-it-will-not-allow-china-military-bases-2022-04-26/

Reports that the Solomon Islands have told Japan that they will not allow a Chinese military base, I wonder if this takes some of the pressure off of the government that they've faced recently over the situation.

I doubt it.

Again, I don't expect this to affect the election that much, but it is telling that Dutton started banging the war drum. On Anzac Day no less.

Side note: Good ol' ScoMo was out showing just how much he respects our veterans by texting at a Dawn Service:

[GoTfan]

I do think the Coalition will end up winning. A decade of Liberal government and nothing accomplished.

[GoTfan]

Murdoch media, subtle as always!

https://twitter.com/MartinPakulaMP/status/1520526986145591296

[GoTfan]

Labor launched their campaign in Western Australia today. Albanese's speech made some attacks on the government and he also revealed a few new policies. I noticed a particularly strong focus (throughout the speech) on Labor's plans for aged care, the NDIS, the housing crisis, and energy.

Interesting.

I would've lobbed some national security stuff in there myself.

[GoTfan]

Two. We polls out today. News poll still has Labor ahead on 2PP 53-47 and essential has Labor ahead 54-46. Were it not for the polls having underestimated the Coalition in 2019 people would regard this election is a done deal and a Labor win as a virtual certainty. Presumably polling companies have tweaked their models to avoid repeating the mistake of 2019

2019 gave us in the ALP a hell of a lot of shellshock. You think the 2015 UK election was a shock? This was even worse.

It is true that the polling groups-NewsPoll in particular-has tweaked their modelling and indeed accurately predicted the result of the SA election when most of us believed the Liberals would hold on with the backing of independents. Neither side is putting much stock outwardly in the polls though because this is the first time those tweaks are being tested at the federal level.

[GoTfan]

RBA has raised interest rates. Certainly makes the cost of living argument stronger.

[GoTfan]

Was the ALP ever able to compete for farmers ?. Seems like a loosing stratagey to focus on a block that almost never votes for you and isn't located in that many competive ridings.

They typically don't support the ALP, no, but there is widespread discontent among regional electorates if the ALP would bother to even make the effort to tap into it.  It's not wise to read too much into these debates*, but the performance of the Labor shadow minister was so bad that even the left-leaning papers admitted it.  That being said, it's interesting how little I've seen about regional independents this time around - there was quite a lot of hype in 2019 (misplaced, as it turned out).

*Another one today - Josh Frydenberg vs Jim Chalmers for the treasurers debate.  I haven't had time to review the whole thing but the clips seem to indicate that Chalmers was the winner, for whatever that's worth.  (Frydenberg is obviously pretty distracted given the difficulties he's facing in keeping his own seat.)

What's the source of this discontent, trade deals or something else ?

Given the negative partisanship that exists for the ALP perhaps leaving the task of tapping into this discontent to various indepednets is the best stratagey for weakening the national party.

Labor has a bit of a crisis going on because of the right breaking into their more blue-collar seats while the Greens are pretty strongly appealing to the inner-city university and climate voters.

Labor's been trying to triangulate themselves, but that isn't going to work for much longer.

[GoTfan]

Albanese could not tell the media his own policy on the NDIS.

NDIS Stumble

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BC1lhbK98Q

Even though this guy sounds like a bumbling idiot in front of the camera, I still think he has this election in the bag.

Sportbet has

Labor at $1.40
Coalition at $2.90
Hung Parliament at $2.05

I am thinking that Labor will romp it in through encumbency fatigue.

Morrison: Multiple scandals, having a potential rapist on the front bench, hiding Alan Tudge, etc.

Media: *crickets*

Albanese: Makes a couple of gaffes

Media: *incoherent screaming*

[GoTfan]

Who are you supporting Ebowed if you support someone/plan on ranking the main two parties? I remember you supported Labor before the pandemic but I'm not sure who you are supporting?

I've supported the Greens and Labor in every previous election.  I'd number them this way this time

[1] Liberal Democrats
[2] Liberals
[3] United Australia Party
[4] Greens
[5] Labor
[6] One Nation

Anyone with the Liberal Democrats as their primary is not a serious person.

[GoTfan]

The more pertinent reason that I'm backing the Liberals over Labor is that Scott Morrison is a better Prime Minister than Anthony Albanese could ever hope to be.  They have identical policies on most issues, but Morrison is placing less emphasis on nationalism, insularity, and xenophobia - ergo, Labor is no longer a viable choice for somebody badly affected by prolonged border closures and punitive lockdowns.  I don't like Morrison, and I don't like the Liberals, but they are easily the lesser of two evils at this election.

I don't live in Australia (obviously), but I'd vaguely been rooting for an ALP victory at this election to punish Morrison and the Liberals for instituting the strict lockdowns and the restrictions on exiting the country. Are Albanese and the ALP really so much more hardline that it makes sense for single-issue "the lockdowns were wrong" voters to preference the Coalition over them? (Would be extremely bleak if true).

Great question, and an understandable perspective to hold from an international perspective: Australia handled covid in a very punitive way, and Scott Morrison could easily end up in a list of nasties along with Ardern and Trudeau for that, but the reality on the ground is that Morrison acted as a handbrake on the worst impulses of Australians throughout the pandemic.  On most issues, he had to be dragged kicking and screaming.  It is difficult for me to describe the relief now that the international border closure has already been lifted: I really do not believe that Albanese would lift it if it were still in place right now and he won the election.  How could he?  Australia has one of the highest, if not the highest, per-capita case rates in the world right now.  If ever we were going to have restrictions, it would be now: but Morrison did the politically unpalatable thing of removing them at a federal level already, and Albanese isn't going to ignite a political storm by re-instating them.

(You may be wondering how that makes sense: basically, the average person is under the impression that any restrictions that remain are based on "science" / "health advice", so they tend to oppose removing them if they are already in place, but the political and popular will to bring back new ones no longer exists.)

Throughout the last two years, the Labor party has demanded going "further" and has never then said that such things are no longer necessary: they banged on and on about the need to establish on-shore quarantine centers, which would doubtlessly transition to being detention centers for visa holders in a matter of absolutely no time at all, proposing to waste billions on the construction of camps where travelers would spend two weeks, presumably entrenching the ridiculous "border controls" that they had been demanding the whole time.

The reason for this is very simple; Labor wants to position itself as the party of health care.  While they have wisely chosen not to emphasise this for the federal election campaign, do not be under any illusions about their continued status as being entirely beholden to nursing unions and medical lobbies.  (Ironically, some of the worst ambulance ramping, indicative of overfilled emergency departments, is in Labor-run states such as Victoria and Western Australia.)

All of this being said, this federal election is certainly not about covid, or lockdowns, or border closures.  Really this is a cost-of-living election, and that's why Albanese needs to run an insular and xenophobic campaign, which is advantageous in the Australian electorate (particularly outside of NSW and Victoria).  The more that people pay attention to the global context, the more they see that Australia's economic position is comparatively enviable, aside from the ever-present risk of the housing bubble popping.  If Albanese can convince people to keep looking inwards (very likely), then people might buy the idea that high petrol and grocery prices are exclusively Scott Morrison's fault.

We are.literally ranked lowest in the OECD

[GoTfan]

The more pertinent reason that I'm backing the Liberals over Labor is that Scott Morrison is a better Prime Minister than Anthony Albanese could ever hope to be.  They have identical policies on most issues, but Morrison is placing less emphasis on nationalism, insularity, and xenophobia - ergo, Labor is no longer a viable choice for somebody badly affected by prolonged border closures and punitive lockdowns.  I don't like Morrison, and I don't like the Liberals, but they are easily the lesser of two evils at this election.

I don't live in Australia (obviously), but I'd vaguely been rooting for an ALP victory at this election to punish Morrison and the Liberals for instituting the strict lockdowns and the restrictions on exiting the country. Are Albanese and the ALP really so much more hardline that it makes sense for single-issue "the lockdowns were wrong" voters to preference the Coalition over them? (Would be extremely bleak if true).

Great question, and an understandable perspective to hold from an international perspective: Australia handled covid in a very punitive way, and Scott Morrison could easily end up in a list of nasties along with Ardern and Trudeau for that, but the reality on the ground is that Morrison acted as a handbrake on the worst impulses of Australians throughout the pandemic.  On most issues, he had to be dragged kicking and screaming.  It is difficult for me to describe the relief now that the international border closure has already been lifted: I really do not believe that Albanese would lift it if it were still in place right now and he won the election.  How could he?  Australia has one of the highest, if not the highest, per-capita case rates in the world right now.  If ever we were going to have restrictions, it would be now: but Morrison did the politically unpalatable thing of removing them at a federal level already, and Albanese isn't going to ignite a political storm by re-instating them.

(You may be wondering how that makes sense: basically, the average person is under the impression that any restrictions that remain are based on "science" / "health advice", so they tend to oppose removing them if they are already in place, but the political and popular will to bring back new ones no longer exists.)

Throughout the last two years, the Labor party has demanded going "further" and has never then said that such things are no longer necessary: they banged on and on about the need to establish on-shore quarantine centers, which would doubtlessly transition to being detention centers for visa holders in a matter of absolutely no time at all, proposing to waste billions on the construction of camps where travelers would spend two weeks, presumably entrenching the ridiculous "border controls" that they had been demanding the whole time.

The reason for this is very simple; Labor wants to position itself as the party of health care.  While they have wisely chosen not to emphasise this for the federal election campaign, do not be under any illusions about their continued status as being entirely beholden to nursing unions and medical lobbies.  (Ironically, some of the worst ambulance ramping, indicative of overfilled emergency departments, is in Labor-run states such as Victoria and Western Australia.)

All of this being said, this federal election is certainly not about covid, or lockdowns, or border closures.  Really this is a cost-of-living election, and that's why Albanese needs to run an insular and xenophobic campaign, which is advantageous in the Australian electorate (particularly outside of NSW and Victoria).  The more that people pay attention to the global context, the more they see that Australia's economic position is comparatively enviable, aside from the ever-present risk of the housing bubble popping.  If Albanese can convince people to keep looking inwards (very likely), then people might buy the idea that high petrol and grocery prices are exclusively Scott Morrison's fault.

We are.literally ranked lowest in the OECD

Worse then us? I thought we were at the bottom of like every single OECD Category/

It's a straight fact that Labor are the better economic managers than the Liberals. Taxes are usually lower, debt is usually higher. The highest taxing government in history was the Howard government. Under Julia Gillard, our economy was ranked the best in the OECD.

The fact is that Labor are far better economic managers than the Liberals.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/is-the-coalition-really-the-better-economic-manager-20220102-p59lat

Ebowed can ignore facts all he likes, but the fact is that statically, the Australian economy had been better under Labor

[GoTfan]

.......the fact is that statically, the Australian economy had been better under Labor.

That is simply incorrect. Liberal fiscal management under Peter Costello was first class, one of the best Treasurers of the modern era.

In simple terms, the Liberal Party are more focussed on economic development and business. The Liberal Party is traditionally more aligned with the largest banks and mining companies.

The Labor Party are more focussed on social issues and environmental and climate issues. They are more linked with union movement etc.

So it is absurd that one could argue that the Labor Party is better at managing the economy.

And that's how I know you didn't read the article I provided.

[GoTfan]

Polling data today has been....concerning:

Morgan: 53-47 (Kevin Bonham's calculations suggest 54-46); Labor 34, Coalition 34, Greens 13, One Nation 4, UAP 1, Others 14. Apparently 56-44 on respondent preferences. That should indicate a comfortable Labor win but Morgan is notoriously ALP-friendly which worries me if their primary vote is in the mid-30's.

Resolve: 52-48 (51-49 on respodnent preferences); Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14, One Nation 6, UAP 4, Others 10. Those figures look kind of bad, especially given that undecideds/3P voters have a significant tendency to choose the Coalition if they move off the fence. On those figures a Labor government would be expected....but a minority government likely and those figures remind me a lot of Ipsos's in 2019.....

Add that Morrison produced a buzz-friendly policy in allowing people to use their super for buying a house (most economists have slammed it but I get the feeling especially with those suspectible to BS would see it as "Liberals are making it easier to buy your own home with your money, Labor expect the government to own part of it") and that Albanese apparently had a difficult press conference and I'm getting really concerned that this is 2019 redux.

I'm almost certain that Morrison wins because of two things:

1) By now, it's blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention that the media has it out for Labor, no matter who's leading them.

2) Australians are idiots. This really should've been clear in 2019, but is crystal clear this year.

[GoTfan]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

From Sportsbet:

Labor are favourite with 76-80 seats predicted.

Liberals are predicted to only get 66-70 seats. Josh Frydenburg predicted to lose his seat.

Labor would then have a clear majority of the 151 available seats.

On Sportsbet, Labor have fallen out to $1.42

Liberals have 'shorten'ed to $2.90

Sportsbet is the most accurate poll in Australia. Once they put you at $1.42, you are overwhelming favourite.

Scott Morrison just needs Albanese to forget the official Reserve Bank cash rate, the national Unemployment Rate and his own 6 point policies live on national TV.......oh wait.

Yeah, Morrison only had multiple sexual assaulters in his party, a horrible economic record, and the fact that he is genuinely a horrible human being.

[GoTfan]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html'

Resolve Strategic Poll has Liberals 49-Labor 51 in 2PP vote.

I haven't really heard of these guys before, and wouldn't put a lot of stock in them the major polling groups have changed their modelling significantly, and consensus seems to be ALP ahead by anywhere from 55-45 to 53-47.

[GoTfan]

At this point, I'll be very surprised if Morrison doesn't win.

[GoTfan]

At this point, I'll be very surprised if Morrison doesn't win.

Getting deja vu from 2019 as I watch the two candidates for PM choose their itineraries for their final day on the trail.  Albanese having coffee with Julia Gillard in a pretty safe Liberal seat in Adelaide and then heading to Victoria and Canberra.  Is this really where a Labor leader should be spending their last day of the campaign?  Time will tell.

It feels mad to say that the polls are wrong, so I won't: I don't know which seats Labor will flip, assuming that they hold most of what they've already got, but you'd have to expect a decent result when the polling is consistently saying 53% of the 2PP.

All I can say is that watching these final days, Labor comes across as having not sealed the deal at all while Morrison is trying his hardest to repeat his bull-headed formula from the last one.  The odds are stacked against him, much more so than even in 2019.  What say you, Atlasians?  Does it feel like there is a strong mood for change in the air?  Labor is acting significantly less confident now than at this point three years ago, but that's obviously from the whiplash of the shock loss.  And also partially because of Albanese himself: a thoroughly weak individual whose spinelessness appears to have infected the rest of the party from the top on down.  Go on out there and win it, you losers!  The country is practically handing it to you.

All I can say is that if you don't think there is a systematic bias against Labor in the Australian media, you need to rethink a few things. It's been obvious from the first day of this campaign that both Nine and Newscorp have been out to get Labor by comprehensively ignoring Morrison's many, many scandals.

[GoTfan]

All I can say is that if you don't think there is a systematic bias against Labor in the Australian media, you need to rethink a few things.

My main sources of media are ABC, The Age, The Saturday Paper and The Guardian, all of which are clearly biased towards Labor, particularly the latter two.

ABC biased to Labor?

What are you smoking?

[GoTfan]

I think the Liberals have got this. If Tasmania is this bad already . . .

[GoTfan]

The Coalition picks up Gilmore, first seat called to switch hands either way.

Who called this seat? Can't imagine this seat would be called with only 25% of the vote reporting.

Can't be ABC, Anothony Greeen just said it's still not called.

Was earlier, now they changed it to "lib ahead"

Was this tipped to flip or not?

[GoTfan]

ABC is saying Boothby is still in doubt with Liberals ahead. If we can't even win that, something has gone badly, badly wrong.

[GoTfan]

As said above, it has been predicted that the Coalition cannot win a majority, and apparently willl struggle getting to 70.

The Greens will back Labor in a minority situation, I would imagine the Teals would provide confidence and supply at the very least. No way in hell are they going to the Coalition.

I'm still my doomer self and think that the next few hours will dramatically change the result, but a little bit of hope is coming back.

That latter part is very annoying.