2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1569682704844689408

LOL Gottheimer? He's going to win by double digits. They're out of their minds.

Maybe not by dd but he will definitely win

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NRCC adds 13 more candidates to their "Young Guns" program-

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1570416579631775744

John Gibbs is not winning no matter how much money you put on that seat! Neither is Erik Aadland. And the Florida Republicans don't need the money! How incompetent are these people?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

I'm trying to figure out what overvote is. 

To put it simple: Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts which leads everyone to believe Democrats are winning while they will clobbered in the competitive Disticts.

There very well could be such a turnout difference, but I think you've drawn exactly the opposite conclusion of what the result would be.  There is certainly evidence from the Kansas primaries and post-Dobbs special elections that D-leaning districts and counties turned out at higher rates than R-leaning ones.  But this turnout difference didn't occur because voters happened to live inside those districts.  It happened because more Democrats turned out than Republicans, so naturally D-leaning areas had higher turnout than R-leaning ones. 

So what would happen in competitive districts with approximately equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans?  If D's turn out at a higher rate than R's, it would make such districts more likely to go Democratic, because more of them would be voting than their Republican counterparts in the district.  If the turnout patterns from Kansas and the post-Dobbs specials are replicated in November, the Republicans would get clobbered.  The good news for them is that the Democratic turnout advantage is likely to be reduced or eliminated in November.

C'mon, you can't extrapolate from a Referendum and a few tiny Special Elections. If anything the GCB Polls are moving more towards Republicans as the "Summer Dobbs Bounce" is fading and Inflation, Gas Prices taking whole again as we go deeper into the autumn when it is inevitable that you'll need more gas as it gets colder outside. I predict and maybe I'm wrong on it that Gas Prices will be equal or even higher what we saw in 2021/2022 come deep Autumn/Early Winter 2022/2023.

Gas Prices are skyrocketing in NV & AZ. That is not good for the D's running in the Districts in those States as well as the Statewide Candidates like CCM, Kelly, Hobbs and Sisolak.

Excuse me?  Higher turnout in D districts than R districts was your assumption at the heart of your argument.  Right here:

Turnout will not be equal. There is evidence that Turnout in Blue Districts could be higher than Turnout in Red Districts

But do we know WHO is turning out in bluer districts? Higher turnout doesn't necessarily benefit democrat/republican candidates just because their party won a specific district. What political leanings do these low propensity voters have? That's key here, especially in NV/AZ/TX.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The article is paywalled but it sounds like a Republican house coalition would include vast improvements in NY, flipping at least one Oregon seat, the RGV, and maybe RI 2.

If Republicans are flipping OR 5 and RI 2, its an R wave year. They don't need those seats to win the house

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The article is paywalled but it sounds like a Republican house coalition would include vast improvements in NY, flipping at least one Oregon seat, the RGV, and maybe RI 2.

If Republicans are flipping OR 5 and RI 2, its an R wave year. They don't need those seats to win the house

OR-5 was only Clinton +3  and Biden +9. It's more Republican down ballot on top of that. Republicans can win it outside of a wave year, especially with a messy gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket.

If you had a moderate republican incumbent like a Fitzpatrick/Katko/Bacon I think GOP would win especially against a very progressive candidate like Skinner. But an open seat? I have my doubts. Chavez doesn't blow me away really as a candidate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NPR/Marist is out with a new poll:

RV: D+2 (46-44)
Definitely Voting: D+3 (48-45)

Last month, it was D+4 (48-44) with RV.

Among RV, top issues:
37% Inflation
28% Preserving Democracy
13% Immigration
12% Abortion
10% Health Care

Marist with only D+2? God help us

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1578453206517940224?cxt=HHwWgICg0YG15e...

Dobbs will save Cheri Beasley but it won't be enough to save Tina Kotek? Please. I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about OR and I could see it flipping in a neutral year but not if NC Senate is voting democratic

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1578453206517940224?cxt=HHwWgICg0YG15e...

Dobbs will save Cheri Beasley but it won't be enough to save Tina Kotek? Please. I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about OR and I could see it flipping in a neutral year but not if NC Senate is voting democratic

2014 has to be a Democratic wave because that was the only way the Alaska Governor’s race could be competitive.  I mean, how could Republicans lose a Governor’s race in Alaska in the same year where they gain a Senate seat in Colorado?  Clearly Mark Udall is a lock to win re-election!

They lost to someone who had an I next to his name, not a D. And I've always maintained weird results can happen(I mean I think Golden and Peltola will win and that Laura Kelly is not DOA) But in NC, the Republican candidate would have to be terrible and that's not the case. Both people are running excellent campaigns which is rare but in NC which Leans R the Republican will win in that scenario.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

An update from RepublicanCuratedPolls – Tom Bevan has now (tearfully, one assumes) accepted that Warnock is favored, but to compensate, he has for some reason decided that a 2 point (I can't put enough quotation marks around the following word so I won't try) "adjusted" Kelly lead is actually a Masters lead.

Yeah that's just screams mega-hack. Sure Masters could def win, but if you've already "unskewed" the polls from a particularly selective sample and they still show Kelly leading how is that justification to have Masters winning in the no tossups map?

The other issue that I have with RCP is they rate everything remotely competitive as tossups all the way till election day, and it just seems like they do it to have more leeway. NH and WI are not both simultaneously tossups this cycle. They literally have 10 governorships rated as "tossups"

Again, it's stupid to unskew polls that from states/districts that were not over/underestimated in the past because like I've said, we don't know what changes to the party coalitions have happened, if any. If Latinos get a lot redder, I could see AZ/NV polling getting less accurate and more democratic biased but again we don't know how much they have shifted

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You don't remember when Democrats were leading the GCB by 15 in October 2014 and it was a big shock to everyone when they lost control of the Senate?

No?

Because that didn't happen. The Daily Kos of all people said the GOP had a 90% chance of control. Jesus Horatio Christ.

But there were still results that were unexpected. Kay Hagan losing, Ernst winning by high single digits instead of low SD, Pat Roberts winning by dd, Paul LePage winning, etc

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1580225262222192641

One of these things is not like the other lol...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's extremely odd that AZ-02 is competitive but Dems don't seem to want to bother in AZ-01 and AZ-06, both tiny Biden districts. I know they need to focus on their incumbents, but it also seems hard to imagine that the GOP is running away with it in 01 and 06 too.

Tbf, if they are losing AZ-01 and AZ-06, then AZ-02 is probably much less favorable for Democrats than their spending indicates. Given some of the party's other spending choices this cycle, I think it is just as simple as spending heavily out of loyalty to incumbents rather than investing in some open seats/pickup opportunities that probably aren't sure things anyway (I don't think this is such a good strategy either, but I can understand it).

AZ 1 to me is far more likely to go Democratic than something like IA-3/VA 2 etc. Trends are dramatic and Schweikert has many scandals. TBF, Hodge is uninspiring and weak, but still

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1583115763447365632?t=xumyK8ws6bS0ZxqCX...

But guys, this is only due to this district being "more R downballot" and "local issues". It says nothing about the national environment /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode).  

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

There were few Dem incumbents in suspenseful races that year. Zeldin opened a clear late lead in NY-1 but other seats such as WV-3, GA-12, NC-7, UT-4 were double digit Romney seats that everyone knew would flip. IL-12 was a weak Dem incumbent in a R trending seat and I don't recall any IA-1 polls that year but it was clear Braley was flopping weeks out. Apples and oranges comparison to this year as the Dems are not over exposed in red leaning seats.

NC-07 and UT-04 were largely written off by Dems as soon as they became open.  It was not at all clear that GA-12 would flip until the very end as Barrow held a lead until then:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782791

Polls had IL-12 very close:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782809

Same with NY-01:  https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=782947

But Mr phips, polling was accurate in 2014! /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

No. But I have a hard time believing white non college voters all of a sudden became democrats again

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

No. They are morons who are bad at their job most likely.

One of them posts on this forum, so you may want to watch that.

I realized shortly after I wrote this about Pollster. I swear this was not directed at him. I still don't see how this bias could reverse.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1586749301820166147?t=udW5tkbBcYvWZcnTG...

CA 21 is more likely (Jim Costa)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1587470548971376642?cxt=HHwWhMCqrbaD6ocsAA...

Porter ain't losing. District is too educated. CA 9/13 are more likely to flip

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1587470548971376642?cxt=HHwWhMCqrbaD6ocsAA...

JFC if Dems actually lose NY-04 which is Biden + 15….

Long Island is weird. It's pretty GOP in local elections and also non-whites appear to be getting a lot redder. So while I think this will be a bad year for Democrats, NY 4 flipping is a lot more imaginable than something like NY 25

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1587827254482145284?t=xizXmMMthFrp6q5Ti...

!!!!!! God help us!!!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

If Slotkin is tied Dems ARE in big trouble. You can't just watch races based on presidential result in the district.

Yes. Slotkin is much stronger than generic D. This is very bad