2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

I hate Ipsos polls tbh. Just ridiculously high number of undecideds most of the time

In 2020 NYT/Siena was so annoying cause till the end they’d give us polls with 10%+ “undecided” even though they were pretty well respected before.

Yeah, I hope NYT/Siena comes back this year, but if they're going to pull more 45-40 polls on us, then it's not even worth it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I hate Ipsos polls tbh. Just ridiculously high number of undecideds most of the time

In 2020 NYT/Siena was so annoying cause till the end they’d give us polls with 10%+ “undecided” even though they were pretty well respected before.

Yeah, I hope NYT/Siena comes back this year, but if they're going to pull more 45-40 polls on us, then it's not even worth it.

On that note, Nate Cohn has been tweeting about NYT beefing up their election analytics team, with a link to this article:

The Times has become the pre-eminent destination on election nights for tens of millions of Americans who turn to us for the latest election results and for clear statistical analysis that demonstrates how the races are actually playing out. But we want to continue to innovate in this area. As we head into the midterms and look toward the 2024 presidential election, we must expand our ability to quickly understand, analyze and explain the election — particularly at this moment, when the credibility of election results reporting, data and analysis is more important than ever before.

The Elections Data Analytics team will be joined by Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, and other members of The Upshot to initially focus on two of the biggest hallmarks of our elections coverage: our public opinion surveys and the statistical models that power the Needle. This work will also bolster The Times’s ability to call races when necessary.

https://www.nytco.com/press/announcing-the-election-data-analytics-team/

I guess this means the Needle will return.   One of the most amazing moments of Election Night 2020 was the Georgia needle swinging barely to Biden...and turning out to be correct.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

Maybe in VA, but not everywhere. In PA, a Democrat nearly won a pretty high turnout marquee Supreme Court race. There were other places countrywide (I think Georgia too) where Democrats actually had a pretty good night.

I think it's clear VA was it's own thing, and NJ was affected by the national environment but also the fact that a Dem governor has not won twice in forever.

The fact that democrats have had remarkable success this entire cycle in small ticket races and random one-off races (Pennsylvania Supreme Court, Georgia county races, Wisconsin education superintendent, etc) arguably reinforces the point that marginal R voters will only turn out in huge numbers for elections with something at the top of the ticket like governor or president.

Even before this summer, the only huge R over performances were the VA/NJ races that brought out huge turnout, and the 2 Texas special elections (which is one unusual state where they still benefit from lower turnout scenarios). The recent special elections have all been (very white) places where the high propensity voters are more democratic than the district at large.

[It’s so Joever]

2014.pdf downloading 30% complete

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

2014.pdf downloading 30% complete

2014 is actually a fitting comparison. In my opinion, GOP is going to do really well in some seats Biden won by a decent margin(RI 02, OR 06, IL 06, etc) and yet they will underperform in several others(ME 02 PA Sen AZ Sen etc)

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn confirmed in a new NYT write up today that NYT/Siena is in the field right now.

He's also launching a new polls/election email newsletter where they'll do something similar to 2020 where they let us know what polls are coming soon. Sounds like they're definitely gonna do a bunch of state polling like that year which is nice.

He better just not provide us with more 43-40 sh*t lol.

[Person Man]

2014.pdf downloading 30% complete

2014 is actually a fitting comparison. In my opinion, GOP is going to do really well in some seats Biden won by a decent margin(RI 02, OR 06, IL 06, etc) and yet they will underperform in several others(ME 02 PA Sen AZ Sen etc)

Its more like 2014 never really ended rather than it coming back.

[It’s so Joever]

Nate Cohn confirmed in a new NYT write up today that NYT/Siena is in the field right now.

He's also launching a new polls/election email newsletter where they'll do something similar to 2020 where they let us know what polls are coming soon. Sounds like they're definitely gonna do a bunch of state polling like that year which is nice.

He better just not provide us with more 43-40 sh*t lol.

After 2020, I am very skeptical of their ability to gauge the electorate.

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar naturally has R+6, 48-42 on the GCB. Bumps Dems back down to D+1.2 on 538 average.

[UncleSam]

Trafalgar naturally has R+6, 48-42 on the GCB. Bumps Dems back down to D+1.2 on 538 average.

What was their prior result.

[Brittain33]

Trafalgar naturally has R+6, 48-42 on the GCB. Bumps Dems back down to D+1.2 on 538 average.

Were they above D+1.2 earlier today? They were D+1.2 yesterday.

[Brittain33]

Trafalgar naturally has R+6, 48-42 on the GCB. Bumps Dems back down to D+1.2 on 538 average.

What was their prior result.

R+6, 47-41

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

[Ferguson97]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

They also have Biden's approval as -13, which is weird.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

They also have Biden's approval as -13, which is weird.

I mean Dems have been leading on the GCB with Biden as low as -12.

[Devils30]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

This poll has support for Dobbs way higher than anything else, D+2 generic ballot is honestly a very solid result for them if you look at the entire sample including Trump favorability.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/09/12/schumer-plows-15-million-into-battle-for-senate-00056265

Schumer sending $15M of his own campaign funds to a bunch of races. $1M each to AZ, FL, GA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, WI and $500K to CO and WA.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/09/12/schumer-plows-15-million-into-battle-for-senate-00056265

Schumer sending $15M of his own campaign funds to a bunch of races. $1M each to AZ, FL, GA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, WI and $500K to CO and WA.

That is an indicator that Democrats are less concerned about Colorado and Washington then they are about the other states - as they should be. O'Dea and Smiley have no chance of winning at this point, but Bennet and Murray are seeking to consolidate their positions.

[wbrocks67]

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

This poll has support for Dobbs way higher than anything else, D+2 generic ballot is honestly a very solid result for them if you look at the entire sample including Trump favorability.

Oh yeah, I mean this entire poll is essential a GOP push poll. All of the framing is pro-GOP and anti-Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult midterm tracker updated.

Latest update has GCB at D+4, 48-44. It was 47-45 last week.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[Person Man]

Morning Consult midterm tracker updated.

Latest update has GCB at D+4, 48-44. It was 47-45 last week.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

So yeah. They’re struggling a little more.

[Gracile]

The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1569682704844689408

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1569682704844689408

I suspect Garcia Holmes and DeGroot will do well but I can't see them actually winning. To me, the only two that GOP has a shot in are CT 02 and MD 06, Gottheimer is too strong. But the last two are just LOL. I wanted to burst out laughing

[wbrocks67]

PA-05 is a Biden +32 district.... Are they serious.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/09/12/schumer-plows-15-million-into-battle-for-senate-00056265

Schumer sending $15M of his own campaign funds to a bunch of races. $1M each to AZ, FL, GA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, WI and $500K to CO and WA.

That is an indicator that Democrats are less concerned about Colorado and Washington then they are about the other states - as they should be. O'Dea and Smiley have no chance of winning at this point, but Bennet and Murray are seeking to consolidate their positions.

Also interesting that they appear to have faith that FL and OH are possibilities too.