2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Brittain33]

If there’s any consolation to the Emerson poll, it’s that most of the movement being from Ds to Undecided is a lot less frightening than the Republican top line going up more than 1 point. But, yeah, not a good poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

I'd like to hear Pollster's thoughts on this.

[Brittain33]

My priors won’t let me accept that Americans just don’t care that much about abortion being criminalized in half the country and that polling errors have changed in Republicans’ favor since the specials this summer. I fully accept I’m guilty of hope here, and I’m prepared for Republicans to win.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

REMINDER: If your mental health is being affected by individual changes in polls, just don't follow this thread. It will be helpful in the long run.

[BenjiG98]

Echleon has PA GCB at R+4

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1583492600165564422?s=20&t=ofCSbw...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

[Gracile]

House Majority PAC (D) is cutting back in the Los Angeles market (likely for CA-27) and Tuscon (AZ-06). They're also spending in MI-07 to support Elissa Slotkin, but not in MI-10-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489247985954816

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489250254721025

[Devils30]

Rassy back down to R+4..the same they had Labor Day.

My brain is pretty much fried...very conflicting signals from the RCP GCB and the VA-2, PA-7 polls. As I have said before, there is a 2000 like feeling where Gore surged in September, Bush in October and then it tightened at the end while state by state polls showed a closer race all along.

[Ferguson97]

If there’s any consolation to the Emerson poll, it’s that most of the movement being from Ds to Undecided is a lot less frightening than the Republican top line going up more than 1 point. But, yeah, not a good poll.

I just find it very difficult to believe that we went from "Dems win abortion ballot by 20 points in Kansas" to "normal midterm" in 3 months when the economy hasn't really changed all that much.

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

[Devils30]

House Majority PAC (D) is cutting back in the Los Angeles market (likely for CA-27) and Tuscon (AZ-06). They're also spending in MI-07 to support Elissa Slotkin, but not in MI-10-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489247985954816

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489250254721025

For the 256th time, the Dems are NOT triaging CA-27. The pre-Dobbs primary was literally something like R+0.8 and usually CA gets more Dem for the general.

It is a smart strategy to not spend in this district, or NY-17, OR-6 and even RI-2. If the Dems get to 218 these will be in the list regardless. If they lose the House by 20 seats, who cares.

[Ferguson97]

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

I get your point, but n=3 is hardly a large enough sample size to say that this phenomenon is here to stay.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

Pollster even said that NY is seeing a lot of issues with this - and lo and behold, you're getting like D+8 by RV in New York of all places (and a Biden +11 2020 recall vote to boot). He can go into it further, but stuff like that screams non response bias. The real question is why it would be affecting places like NY of all states, though.

[wbrocks67]

I doubt Dems were really ever planning to spend in MI-10. It's theoretically a target, but you're also dealing with James who has like $3M in the bank, and Marlinga who is unfortunately broke.

AZ-06 also doesn't appear to ever really been in serious contention from their perspective, since the only buys were in the last few weeks of the race. Disappointing that a Biden +0.3 district isn't getting attention, but I get why, if the environment is a few more % R than 2020.

CA-27 is weird... I doubt it's more of a triage situation and like Devils30 said, Dems are going to win it or not without a ton of outside money. Smith raised nearly $2M in Q3, so she's got a hefty warchest.

Also, it's obv very early, but CA-27 is actually looking among the best for Ds right now in the early vote. Ds are +12 right now there. (they're only D+1 in CA-22 right now, albeit with much less votes, which would explain more outside spending there)

[Gracile]

For the 256th time, the Dems are NOT triaging CA-27. The pre-Dobbs primary was literally something like R+0.8 and usually CA gets more Dem for the general.

It is a smart strategy to not spend in this district, or NY-17, OR-6 and even RI-2. If the Dems get to 218 these will be in the list regardless. If they lose the House by 20 seats, who cares.

Note that "triage" was the reporter's word, not mine. I suppose it's also possible they are scaling back in some of the other LA area seats, too.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen going 3% towards Ds when everyone else is going 3% towards Rs. You have to laugh

[Lief 🗽]

Ally Mutnick is a “reporter” for Politico… aka a GOP mouthpiece and partisan hack. Of course she’s going to put a Republican spin on this stuff.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1583496875113852934

[Person Man]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

The one thing that's clear is that everything's unclear.

Imagine if Democrats overperform, keep the Senate, and are accused of "voter fraud".

[Unelectable Bystander]

House Majority PAC (D) is cutting back in the Los Angeles market (likely for CA-27) and Tuscon (AZ-06). They're also spending in MI-07 to support Elissa Slotkin, but not in MI-10-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489247985954816
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489250254721025

This corroborates something that Wasserman said, which is that GOP operatives feel good about Garcia, Bacon, and Flores.

[wbrocks67]

House Majority PAC (D) is cutting back in the Los Angeles market (likely for CA-27) and Tuscon (AZ-06). They're also spending in MI-07 to support Elissa Slotkin, but not in MI-10-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489247985954816
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489250254721025

This corroborates something that Wasserman said, which is that GOP operatives feel good about Garcia, Bacon, and Flores.

IDK about Bacon - the GOP has remained sending ungodly amounts to that district.

[Unelectable Bystander]

House Majority PAC (D) is cutting back in the Los Angeles market (likely for CA-27) and Tuscon (AZ-06). They're also spending in MI-07 to support Elissa Slotkin, but not in MI-10-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489247985954816
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489250254721025

For the 256th time, the Dems are NOT triaging CA-27. The pre-Dobbs primary was literally something like R+0.8 and usually CA gets more Dem for the general.

It is a smart strategy to not spend in this district, or NY-17, OR-6 and even RI-2. If the Dems get to 218 these will be in the list regardless. If they lose the House by 20 seats, who cares.

This is true of the presidency but not necessarily the house. People like Jared Golden are not automatically going down in a right-leaning environment. All the house seats have their own issues and don’t necessarily move in tandem. This could even be seen in 2020, where actual house republican seats + Trump seats would have been enough for a majority.

As for the others, not contesting  a takeover of marginally favorable seats is not a good idea. That’s how you end up with someone like Fung turning into Fitzpatrick or Golden.

[Woody]

Recent polling shows increasing tightening and another alarming sign is several D-incumbents under 50%

Time for Democrats to sound the alarm?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't get nervous of any red wave because we still have to vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not Devil's oh GCB in NH is D+1  OH R NPVI is +2 that's anxiety we still have two weeks