2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[BenjiG98]

A lot of Democrats here are sounding alarms prematurely (and should probably spend some time offline before they give themselves a heart attack from stress).

[Devils30]

Apparently NYT/Siena is going to poll 4-5 CDs. Despite the last poll having a quirky subsample of 85 independent women, they did a great job in 2018 and hoping they provide some clarification.

I would love to see NJ-7, NC-13, VA-2, CA-45, OH-13 of any 5 they could do.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

No. But I have a hard time believing white non college voters all of a sudden became democrats again

[soundchaser]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

No. They are morons who are bad at their job most likely.

One of them posts on this forum, so you may want to watch that.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

No. They are morons who are bad at their job most likely.

One of them posts on this forum, so you may want to watch that.

I realized shortly after I wrote this about Pollster. I swear this was not directed at him. I still don't see how this bias could reverse.

[Vosem]

Early-voting figures suggest either

1) A very large change in who votes early, and for what reason; or
2) A double-digit national Republican victory, significantly larger than 1994/2010.

So I'd have to say yes.

[Aurelius]

A few days ago I was predicting R+2 GCB. I'm now predicting R+3 and another day or two of polls like this might nudge me toward R+4.

[Vosem]

A few days ago I was predicting R+2 GCB. I'm now predicting R+3 and another day or two of polls like this might nudge me toward R+4.

A zillion different GCB polls have all herded to R+5, and early vote totals in NC and FL, compared with similar values in 2018/2020, suggest low double-digits (...or R+5 together with usual polling error). (That said people have often gone wrong making calls using early-voting data).

Some of the Senate/House polling still looks like it's from an R+1 world (...and special elections, accurate in the past, came from ~D+2), but the answer to 'is the red wave in our sights' seems like an unambiguous yes; one can make a reasoned argument for a very large GOP win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One question is are we clasifying a red wave in terms of the GCB or the actual results? If it's by the GCB, it still seems pretty unlikely Rs are going to get some R+6 or R+8 GCB that can be classified as a "red-wave", however, in terms of results Rs winning both the House, Senate, and most key governorships was always in the cards and still is.

For instance, most people considered D + 4 2020 to be a good year for Democrats but not a wave. If 2022 is R+4, Republicans are likely flipping both chambers with realtive ease and winning a lot of key state level races in the traditional "swing states", and people would likely classsify that as an R wave.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1583530398528966656?cxt=HHwWgMDQ9b2g6v...

Maybe there’s something happening in NY…

[Ferguson97]

Early-voting figures suggest either

1) A very large change in who votes early, and for what reason; or
2) A double-digit national Republican victory, significantly larger than 1994/2010.

So I'd have to say yes.

You are delusional if you think this is going to happen.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The idea that it exists is trying to manifest itself into existence regardless of whether or not there's any prima facie evidence for it. If it does, it'll be because of all this.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I don't take any comfort in polls, nor is it wise to be defeated by a bad poll.  It's not over until it's over... It's all about turnout so the next few weeks have to be fiercely fought.  Smugness has plagued many campaigns before, it's not wise to be popping the champagne bottles prematurely.

It was always going to be a red wave because the House is very likely to flip - the Democratic majority is so small that even a couple of pickups here and there will give Kevin McCarthy the Speaker's gavel.  The Senate and governors races are where the Democrats should pour their resources now.

[Duke of York]

Yeah its looking very likely and that elections that were never considered to be competitive are such as New York.

[PSOL]

Maybe something to the like of 2014, with a particular emphasis on underperformances in statewide executive races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah its looking very likely and that elections that were never considered to be competitive are such as New York.

Lol, I haven't moved any 303 blue states I just move my endorsement and took off red states Pritzker, Whitmer and Evers have 45 percent ratings do you  really think HOCHUL will lose, no

I am not soundchaser or Milinnral moderate nervously

[Duke of York]

Yeah its looking very likely and that elections that were never considered to be competitive are such as New York.

Lol, I haven't moved any 303 blue states I just move my endorsement and took off red states Pritzker, Whitmer and Evers have 45 percent ratings do you  really think HOCHUL will lose, no

I am not soundchaser or Milinnral moderate nervously

with current polling it can't be ruled out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah its looking very likely and that elections that were never considered to be competitive are such as New York.

Lol, I haven't moved any 303 blue states I just move my endorsement and took off red states Pritzker, Whitmer and Evers have 45 percent ratings do you  really think HOCHUL will lose, no

I am not soundchaser or Milinnral moderate nervously

with current polling it can't be ruled out.

This same pollster co EFFICIENT has Kelly leading by 2 and Lake leading by 4 it's AZ polls are coinciding with other polls but the non coefficient last poll had HOCHUL 47/42 that's what it is if Kelly is leading by 2 I thought if they had HOCHUL losing then Kelly would be losing too

[soundchaser]

I am not soundchaser or Milinnral moderate nervously

I'm equal parts flattered and confused as to how I ended up in this comparison.

[kwabbit]

I am not soundchaser or Milinnral moderate nervously

I'm equal parts flattered and confused as to how I ended up in this comparison.

Maybe he thinks you’re too optimistic and he’s completely unbiased 303 Map?

[wbrocks67]

Pat Ryan's district being moved to Tilt D and Josh Riley's district being moved to toss-up are both kind of absurd. Pat Ryan outperformed incredibly in the special, and now he's an incumbent who just raised $2.3M+ last quarter with now more favorable territory.

Not just that, but Riley is a strong recruit in the new NY-19 who raised twice as much as Molinaro, and Molinaro lost the only favorable territory he actually had in the old NY-19.

Sounds like they're just doing this because of the messy NY state polling.

[Devils30]

Pat Ryan's district being moved to Tilt D and Josh Riley's district being moved to toss-up are both kind of absurd. Pat Ryan outperformed incredibly in the special, and now he's an incumbent who just raised $2.3M+ last quarter with now more favorable territory.

Not just that, but Riley is a strong recruit in the new NY-19 who raised twice as much as Molinaro, and Molinaro lost the only favorable territory he actually had in the old NY-19.

Sounds like they're just doing this because of the messy NY state polling.

Special elections aren’t everything. See CA-25 in May 2020.

It was interesting how the same trend was repeated throughout every August special but it is just a different crowd than who votes in November.

[wbrocks67]

Pat Ryan's district being moved to Tilt D and Josh Riley's district being moved to toss-up are both kind of absurd. Pat Ryan outperformed incredibly in the special, and now he's an incumbent who just raised $2.3M+ last quarter with now more favorable territory.

Not just that, but Riley is a strong recruit in the new NY-19 who raised twice as much as Molinaro, and Molinaro lost the only favorable territory he actually had in the old NY-19.

Sounds like they're just doing this because of the messy NY state polling.

Special elections aren’t everything. See CA-25 in May 2020.

It was interesting how the same trend was repeated throughout every August special but it is just a different crowd than who votes in November.

The point is that it was a special election that still had strong turnout (~135k) and Pat Ryan severely overperformed the fundamentals while being outspent in a less D district.

His new opponent has way less cash, and the district is considerably more D, and Ryan seems well liked.

Not just that, but the last public poll we got of NY-18 was Riley +5, and I believe Riley has led all the public polls that come out.

This seems more just like they're hedging their bets on all this NY GOV nonsense.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The only good thing about what increasingly looks like an absolute bloodbath across the board is that it will make it easier to finally get rid of these ancient morons running the Democratic party into the ground.

[Aurelius]

Data for Progress just released a R+3 GCB poll with a huge sample (N>4,000). Leaning closer to R+4 now.