2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 643693 times)
Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2020, 06:01:24 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 05:00:55 AM
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 04:55:24 AM
Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks

Or did you bet on winner of the popular vote only, not the Presidency ?

Presidency.

Sportsbet.com.au are still taking bets on Joe Biden at $1.15 on the same outcome.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2020, 06:15:12 AM »
GA still on track for Biden.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,390 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 202,800 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%)

PA - Biden down by 164,414 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~784,672 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 474,600 of them - (60.5%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

This plot shows how Biden wins each state by just plotting the drop in % needed to win. Obviously, when Biden falls below 50%, he is in the lead and on the way to 100% vote counted.



Based on the current trajectory, Biden should hit the front in GA before the end of vote counting provided there are 200,000 votes left to count.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2020, 06:17:47 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 05, 2020, 06:16:19 AM
May I ask where you're getting these numbers for the remaining votes?

NY Times. Even if it is short, Biden is still strong.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #53 on: November 05, 2020, 06:24:25 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2020, 06:37:55 AM by Meclazine »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 05, 2020, 06:20:52 AM
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 06:15:12 AM
GA - Biden down by 18,540 (96% counted)

Of the remaining ~204,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 111,500 of them - (54.5%


How do you get 204,500? Georgia Secretary of State said there are 90,375 left (and that was at 10:15pm)

Based on estimates from NY Times.com.

Even if I throw in 90.375 instead of 200,000 into the Excel file, Biden needs 60.5% of the remaining vote to get 18,500 votes and win the state.

It just shortens the length of time he has to get the votes.

Very possible given the rate at which he is currently catching Trump (3:1).

Wisconsin and Michigan were worse last night with Biden needing 60% of the remaining vote at one stage, which he did comfortably.

It just comes down to whether he runs out of time.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #54 on: November 05, 2020, 06:39:51 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2020, 06:34:15 AM
What does your algorithm say when you plug in "450,000 ballots remaining" and Biden trailing by around 154,000 for PA?

67.1%

That is nearly in the too-hard basket.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2020, 06:44:15 AM »

Sorry Tender, but Australians dont take orders from Austrians.

We were given two extra letters for a reason.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2020, 06:46:07 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 05, 2020, 06:42:16 AM
As of last night at 9:15PM, this is how many mail ballots remain. Not sure how many have counted overnight though.

Montco's website says they are finished with ballots that they received thru Election Day, but that there are more (3K at least) that are still outstanding

Philadelphia: 120K
York: 77K
Allegheny: 46K
Bucks: 43K
Chester: 42K
Lehigh: 39K
Erie: 31K
Butler: 33K
Cumberland: 32K
Beaver: 25K
Luzerne: 20K
Lancaster: 19K
Delaware: 18K

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

My algorithm uses 784,000, so that is closer than 450k.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2020, 06:56:46 AM »

I immediately thought of this.

Joe DeRosa

Update from Arizona

https://youtu.be/f2QgaQ-rS78
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2020, 07:55:46 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 07:53:33 AM
Quote from: philly09 on November 05, 2020, 07:51:39 AM
Quote from: The scissors of false economy on November 05, 2020, 07:49:25 AM
So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.


And if those Philly numbers don't put Biden over the top, is there any hope left?

Yes.

GA, NV, AZ.

Biden does not actually need Pennsylvania.

It's only if you want to get to 306.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2020, 03:57:07 PM »
GA and PA still alive for Biden.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 12,764 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,512 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 56,638 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 108,367 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~560,502 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 334,500 of them - (59.7%)

Since yesterday when I went to bed, the ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  65.2%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  79.0%)
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2020, 04:01:06 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on November 05, 2020, 03:59:47 PM
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 03:57:07 PM

GA - Biden down by 12,764 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,512 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 56,638 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 108,367 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~560,502 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 334,500 of them - (59.7%)




That "needs to win" percentage looks like it's dropping a good amount from yesterday.

PA now looks better than GA for Biden.

The vote coming in in PA is 80% Biden.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2020, 04:11:56 PM »
As long as PA and GA don't run out of votes, this wont take long at the current growth rates in the Biden numbers. As we approach the final mail-in ballots, Biden is performing strongly.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 12,765 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,513 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 56,639 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 97,900 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~560,200 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 330,050 of them - (58.7%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  65.2%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

I would say PA will comfortably go to Biden if the current numerical patterns in the vote counting continue.

Biden's necessary % has dropped one percent since my last post for example because he is landing votes at a ratio of 4:1 to Trump.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #62 on: November 05, 2020, 05:01:16 PM »
Biden is catching in PA and GA at a faster rate than what Trump is catching in AZ.

NV has widened for Biden.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 9,525 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,600 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 55,100 of them - (54.7%)

PA - Biden down by 90,550 (93% counted)

Of the remaining ~488,300 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 289,500 of them - (59.3%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  65.2%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

It really comes down to how many 'actual' votes are left in PA and GA. These numbers above are estimates from NYTimes.com

For example, if there are only 50K of votes left in GA, then Biden will need to win 62.8% of those votes, which he is currently doing.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #63 on: November 05, 2020, 05:23:40 PM »
GA going right down to the wire.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 9,525 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,647 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 55,091 of them - (54.7%)

PA - Biden down by 90,550 (93% counted)

Of the remaining ~488,300 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 289,500 of them - (59.3%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  61.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

If GA has only 40,000 votes left, then to make up the gap, Biden gets 61.81% which would let him catch up 9,510 votes.

But he needs 9,525 votes.

Trump would then win GA by 15 votes. So it really comes down to how many votes are remaining to be counted in GA and PA.

If there are more than 50K remaining in GA, then Biden will most likely take it.

PA mail-in votes in Pittsburgh could be where Biden seals it.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #64 on: November 05, 2020, 05:30:08 PM »
Has anyone got the phone number for the NV and AZ vote counting centre's?

I will give them a ring, and ask them to count a few votes tomorrow.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #65 on: November 05, 2020, 05:40:38 PM »

Which Biden is getting more than comfortably.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #66 on: November 05, 2020, 05:59:10 PM »
GA and PA updated.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,098 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~475,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,500 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 9,534 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,648 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 55,091 of them - (54.7%)

PA - Biden down by 78,314 (93% counted)

Of the remaining ~491,100 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 284,700 of them - (58.0%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #67 on: November 05, 2020, 06:05:26 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2020, 06:01:29 PM
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 05:59:10 PM
GA and PA updated.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 9,534 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,648 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 55,091 of them - (54.7%)

PA - Biden down by 78,314 (93% counted)

Of the remaining ~491,100 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 284,700 of them - (58.0%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Thank you for keeping track of this but your remaining ballots numbers seem way off.  There's not that many left in GA or PA.

Even with 350,000 mail in ballots remaining to be counted in Philadephia and Pittsburgh, I think it is largely academic if Biden gets 75-80% of the votes there.

Have you got some numbers remaining from GA and PA?

I will plug them into the calculation and run it again.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #68 on: November 05, 2020, 06:09:51 PM »

Arizona, the only place where I thought:

"I think I am going to die"

and

"I wish I was dead"

at the same time.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #69 on: November 05, 2020, 06:32:58 PM »
PA updated.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 9,426 (98.5% counted)

Of the remaining ~75,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 42,300 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 75,427 (93% counted)

Of the remaining ~417,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~246,100 of them - (59.0%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Trump is not making up a lot of ground in Arizona.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #70 on: November 05, 2020, 06:54:33 PM »
"A pipe burst in Georgia...unrelated...and a lot of things happened."
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #71 on: November 05, 2020, 06:59:24 PM »
"A pipe burst in Georgia but the people were so far away, they needed binoculars."
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #72 on: November 05, 2020, 07:07:34 PM »
GA updated.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,635 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~50,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 26,800 of them - (53.6%)

PA - Biden down by 75,427 (93% counted)

Of the remaining ~417,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~246,100 of them - (59.0%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

It is looking good in GA and PA for Biden.

President Biden can warm up the white Pontiac Trans Am.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #73 on: November 05, 2020, 07:11:05 PM »
CNN fact checking burst pipe in Georgia (with binoculars)
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #74 on: November 05, 2020, 07:15:29 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2020, 07:27:57 PM by Meclazine »
PA updated. AZ updated.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 61,469 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~457,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 198,100 of them - (43.3%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~50,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 26,750 of them - (53.5%)

PA - Biden down by 64,266 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~417,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~241,100 of them - (57.7%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

This is nearly done.
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