2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

NOW LOOK, HERE'S THE DEAL:


90.375 votes left to count in Georgia. Some were counted, but these were left when the vote difference sat at around 25k. Let's give Trump 35% of the vote, Biden 65% of it.

65% of 90.375 = 58.743 votes
90.375 - 58.743 = 30.632 votes.
58.743 - 30.632 = 28.111 votes.

Is it likely? No
Is it still possible? DEFINITELY.

If there are 90K votes left in GA with Biden only down 18K then I would say it is likely Biden passes Trump.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, stop.

There's too much misinformation in this thread right now.

There are 450.000 mail ballots left in PA right now, maybe more because they can still arrive until tomorrow.

Biden keeps winning 75%+ of them.

Biden nets at least 230.000 more votes out of them, maybe as much as 250.000 with the late arriving.

Trump's lead is 150.000 right now.

Biden wins by 80.000 in the end tomorrow, maybe even by 100.000 with the late arriving.

Biden wins the state by 1.1% to 1.5%

[philly09]

Do people realize that Biden is only down like 150K in PA right now and there is 120K+ left to count in Philly *alone*?

"I was told there would be no math"

As someone who lives in a Trump heavy part of South Philly, I can tell you that no Trump voter was voting by mail. They practically worship Fox News.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The major networks are catching up the nbc reporter from last night as Trump margin is down to 18k in Georgia

Huh? English please

Last night a local reporter for nbc Atlanta was giving updates on Georgia and had Trump down to 15k when everyone else was still at 31k because he was able to process the Fulton data quicker then everyone else. I’m saying the major networks are now catching up to his estimates because they’re finally getting the Fulton data in

[MillennialModerate]

The major networks are catching up the nbc reporter from last night as Trump margin is down to 18k in Georgia

Huh? English please

Last night a local reporter for nbc Atlanta was giving updates on Georgia and had Trump down to 15k when everyone else was still at 31k because he was able to process the Fulton data quicker then everyone else. I’m saying the major networks are now catching up to his estimates because they’re finally getting the Fulton data in

Ahh I see. Makes sense now

[ObamaMichael]

Biden now down only 18K. There were reports that 60K+ were still out in GA.

IF we go by this, and give Biden 65% of those 60.000 votes we have left,
we net EXACTLY 18k for Biden.

[philly09]

Chris Cuomo was talking about this.

https://twitter.com/howardfineman/status/1324217159250333697

[Meclazine for Israel]

What does your algorithm say when you plug in "450,000 ballots remaining" and Biden trailing by around 154,000 for PA?

67.1%

That is nearly in the too-hard basket.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Biden now down only 18K. There were reports that 60K+ were still out in GA.

IF we go by this, and give Biden 65% of those 60.000 votes we have left,
we net EXACTLY 18k for Biden.

And that’s just by giving Biden 65% when he’s winning by 75-80% margins with these dumps

[BlueSwan]

Chris Cuomo was talking about this.

https://twitter.com/howardfineman/status/1324217159250333697

More deplorable behaviour from the "president".

[wbrocks67]

As of last night at 9:15PM, this is how many mail ballots remain. Not sure how many have counted overnight though.

Montco's website says they are finished with ballots that they received thru Election Day, but that there are more (3K at least) that are still outstanding

Philadelphia: 120K
York: 77K
Allegheny: 46K
Bucks: 43K
Chester: 42K
Lehigh: 39K
Erie: 31K
Butler: 33K
Cumberland: 32K
Beaver: 25K
Luzerne: 20K
Lancaster: 19K
Delaware: 18K

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

[MasterJedi]

Remember, MillennialModerate also said there was no way Biden could come back in WI, MI and PA.

[wbrocks67]

What does your algorithm say when you plug in "450,000 ballots remaining" and Biden trailing by around 154,000 for PA?

67.1%

That is nearly in the too-hard basket.

Biden has been winning mail-ins by about at least 75%

[Brittain33]

Just catching up this morning. What is the source for thinking there are fewer ballots in Pa. than people thought yesterday? I’m not finding the answer in news searches.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Guys, stop.

Sorry Tender, but Australians dont take orders from Austrians.

We were given two extra letters for a reason.

[Admiral Kizaru]

Still seems Biden's win at this point but I'd rest a lot easier if & when he gets ahead in Pennsylvania and Georgia. This is difficult to watch right now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

As of last night at 9:15PM, this is how many mail ballots remain. Not sure how many have counted overnight though.

Montco's website says they are finished with ballots that they received thru Election Day, but that there are more (3K at least) that are still outstanding

Philadelphia: 120K
York: 77K
Allegheny: 46K
Bucks: 43K
Chester: 42K
Lehigh: 39K
Erie: 31K
Butler: 33K
Cumberland: 32K
Beaver: 25K
Luzerne: 20K
Lancaster: 19K
Delaware: 18K

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

My algorithm uses 784,000, so that is closer than 450k.

[MillennialModerate]

Remember, MillennialModerate also said there was no way Biden could come back in WI, MI and PA.

I was very unsure about WI and MI but I never totally discounted Bidens chances in the way I do in PA or especially GA (and AZ for that matter)

[wbrocks67]

For reference: Biden is at about 458K in Philly right now. Hillary got 584K in 2016, so there is a LOT left to count in Philly.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1324316787836620801
Hard to see what is left to count in Georgia and not think Biden is gonna pull ahead at some point

[Ben.]

Is there any update from Arizona? Do we know where the outstanding votes are from?

I’m guessing it could be similar to the 2018 Senate race where the late arriving votes tilted D but we’re counted in batches that usually lean one way or another.

[wbrocks67]

However, this is from Boockvar herself last night at 10PM. DOS website also had about this amount at 9pm last night. There has been some overnight counting, but it looks like there has only been a ~150K difference from 9/10pm last night to now. (6.2m last night, 6.35m right now)

So that would mean we have about ~600K left

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1324188579162132480

[philly09]

CNN basically saying the Perdue race goes to a runoff.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Is there any update from Arizona?

I immediately thought of this.

Joe DeRosa

Update from Arizona

https://youtu.be/f2QgaQ-rS78

[DaleCooper]

However, this is from Boockvar herself last night at 10PM. DOS website also had about this amount at 9pm last night. There has been some overnight counting, but it looks like there has only been a ~150K difference from 9/10pm last night to now. (6.2m last night, 6.35m right now)

So that would mean we have about ~600K left

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1324188579162132480

It seems pretty clear that as of a few hours ago there were approximately 475k mail-in ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, but is it possible that the remainder of that 600K was counted but not reported?