UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Frodo]

Jesus. There were some polls showing up to 55%?

YouGov has Labour on 54% and Omnisis has Labour on 55%

Even if polls on Election Day in 2024 return to Earth, at the very least Labour should be taking back its old strongholds in northern England. 

[Frodo]

Nicola Sturgeon says there will be an Independence vote for Scotland in October 2023, even if the Supreme Court rules against it.

The leader of the Scottish government said Sunday that she will push on with her campaign to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom, even if she loses a Supreme Court case seeking authorization to call a new independence referendum.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold a referendum in October 2023, but the Conservative U.K. government in London has said no. Britain’s top court is due to hear arguments starting Tuesday on whether Scotland’s semi-autonomous administration can organize an independence vote without the London government’s consent.

Sturgeon, who leads the Scottish National Party, said that if her Edinburgh-based government loses the court case, she will make the next U.K. national election a de facto plebiscite on ending Scotland’s three-century-old union with England.

She did not give details of how that would work. A vote held without the approval of the U.K. government would not be legally binding.

Sturgeon said that if the courts blocked a referendum, “we put our case to people in an election or we give up on Scottish democracy.”

It's starting to look like Scotland is going to become the new Catalonia.

Given most Scots are #1 against independence, and #2 against the very idea of the independence referendum taking place, I think that highly unlikely.  In fact, if she goes through with it regardless of public sentiment, that could spell the beginning of the end for the independence movement in Scotland, especially if they lose.  Which wouldn't be a bad thing, considering I want the island of Britain to remain politically whole.   

[Frodo]

Would things really be any better under Sunak? He's a vapid failure himself; he's just not the vapid failure who's already been in office for over a month as the worst PM since at least Chamberlain.

Not really - but at least he doesn't have a net -48% approval rating, and bear personal blame for the spiralling cost of mortgages in the minds of a plurality of voters. Unless the current popularity death-spiral miraculously reverses, I think the self-preservation instinct will make it impossible for MPs to stick with Truss.

"We've listened, got rid of her, and we're a brand new government", isn't going to save them in 2024, but it might stop the haemorrhaging.

So a marginal improvement then.  Instead of an election disaster for Conservatives being worse than in 1997 under Truss, Sunak might be able to make it only about as bad as in 1997.  

Every little bit helps, I guess... 

[Frodo]

Are they actually being serious this time?

https://twitter.com/HuffPostUKPol/status/1594292402935984128
From the link to the Observer article:

Keir Starmer will abolish the House of Lords and replace it with a new elected chamber as part of plans to “restore trust in politics”, the Observer understands.

In a sweeping constitutional overhaul, the Labour leader has told the party’s peers that he wants to strip politicians of the power to make appointments to the Lords as part of the first-term programme of a Labour government. Starmer said that the public’s faith in the political system had been undermined by successive Tory leaders handing peerages to “lackeys and donors”.

It is understood that Labour will hold a consultation on the composition and size of a new chamber as well as immediate reforms to the current appointments process. Final proposals will be included in the party’s next election manifesto.

Starmer had pledged to abolish the Lords as part of his leadership campaign, and to “replace it with an elected chamber of regions and nations”. Doubts were later raised about his commitment to the promise after he abandoned other elements of his leadership pitch. However, it is understood he now sees reform of the Lords as necessary to demonstrate that Labour would represent a decisive change from the Conservatives.

Starmer’s comments suggest that he is backing many of the ideas drawn up by Brown’s review. It is understood to support replacing the Lords with an upper house of nations and regions. It is also said to have backed a new round of devolution, including handing new economic and taxation powers to new independent councils of the nations and for England. Brown wants local mayors to have more power over education, transport and research funding.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1598675028966531074?s=46&t=0rMKs6jY...
it’s over for torycels

So if this poll plays itself out in the actual 2024 election, the Conservative Party suffers a devastating blow but at least survives the impact, barely.  I read somewhere that it has to retain at least a hundred seats in the House of Commons if it wants to live to fight another election.

[Frodo]

Labour is pledging to abolish the House of Lords.

If the House of Lords is actually abolished, what happens to all this ceremony and pageantry?

Will King Charles open Parliament at the House of Commons instead?  And if so, will the throne chairs at the back of the room of the House of Lords be moved over?  Or are they going to do away with all that altogether?

[Frodo]

Scotland is generally accepted as a distinct nation within the UK, though - and this has pretty much always been the case since 1707 (even at the height of "modern" unionism in the 1950s)

Yes, so that while we could conventionally never describe Scottish people as some sort of minority group even in the loosest possible sense, this is not because Scottish people were/are seen as identical to English people: it's more that once you cross the border, the majority group becomes Scottish; much as when the Monarch does they become a Presbyterian rather than an Anglican. As bizarre as this might sound to people who aren't British, it's one reason why the debate over Scotland's constitutional status has never anything like as nasty as the one in Quebec, even at its worst: there has never been this sense of Scottish people as a besieged ethnic minority.

I suspect that is due to the astute decision by the English to include the Scots as partners rather than as subjects in their imperial project soon after the Acts of Union -with the notable exception of the Jacobite Rebellions.  As a result, how the Scots viewed their role in the British Empire compared to their Irish counterparts is like night and day.  

[Frodo]

If you're a unionist, now would be a good time for a second (and final) Scottish independence referendum:

Poll shows slump in support for SNP and Scottish independence

Support for the SNP at Holyrood and Westminster has dropped, a new poll suggests.

The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list, when compared to the results of the same poll in December.

Support for independence also dropped substantially, from 53% to 47% among decided voters.

SNP support at Westminster dropped marginally from 43% to 42%.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she plans to run the next UK election as a “de-facto referendum” in the hopes of achieving a majority of votes north of the border and securing negotiations on independence.

But the First Minister’s approval rating has also suffered in recent months, dropping from a net of 7% in October to -4%.

[Frodo]

YouGov have released a Scottish poll (for Westminster) which was conducted just before Sturgeon stood down:

SNP 38 (-7)
Lab 35 (+17)
Con 16 (-9)
LD 5 (-4)
Green 3 (+2)

Changes are since 2019. Usual caveats that you should be sceptical because it's just one poll and even more sceptical because it's one poll showing a big shift, but if those numbers were borne out in reality then most of the Central Belt would flip and Labour and the SNP would be approximately equal in terms of seats.

As I say, I'm sceptical, but I imagine that this is going to have some impact in the discourse.

If scottish independence is not credible the SNP becomes just another Plaid Cymru.

Or worse.  At what point will we know that the Scottish independence movement will suffer the fate of its counterpart in Quebec which nearly thirty years after the last independence referendum in 1995 (which took place fifteen years after the first referendum was defeated), no longer has any serious hope of success?  Do we have to wait until the independence advocates lose again after a second referendum?  

[Frodo]

In short, the implosion of the Scottish National Party shouldn't be taken as an implosion of the independence movement in Scotland, since Keir Starmer will still need their support in the event of a hung parliament after next year's elections to take power in Westminster.  To do that, he will need to give them some concessions, perhaps including a second independence referendum, or if not that then at least greater economic autonomy particularly when it concerns taxation.
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That is quite a spin, I will give the author that:

The SNP implosion could lead to a more independent Scotland. Here’s how

[Frodo]

In the (unlikely) event the Orkneys join Norway, could the Shetlands and the Outer Hebrides follow suit?

Orkney debates motion to become territory of Norway

[Frodo]

Even Nigel Farage has concluded that Brexit has been a miserable failure:

Brexit: More than half of Britons would vote to rejoin the EU, poll finds

[Frodo]

Another one - TechneUK have the Tories on 22%. Worth noting that 22% is the lowest Techne have every found for the Tories, and has only been reached on one other occasion - the direct aftermath of the mini-budget.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1725313575214813606

So this is shaping up to be even worse for them than 1997 if poll results hold by the time of the next election.  Rumor has it the Conservatives might suffer the fate of the old Liberal Party of a century ago or so, and simply cease to exist.  

[Frodo]

This coming election is going to be a do-or-die moment for the Scottish independence movement -if election results (more or less) match the polls, and Labour decisively defeats the SNP, that is it for any continuance of the debate over whether Scotland should leave the United Kingdom:

Voters have lost interest in Scottish independence, says Yes campaigner
Country moving to ‘more normal political period’ as people focus on general election — with polls predicting heavy losses for the SNP

[Frodo]

Urgent changes needed to protect Welsh devolution, independent commission finds

Urgent changes are needed to protect devolution in Wales from collapse with independence a viable option for the country, an independent commission has found.

The Independent Commission On The Constitutional Future Of Wales, a cross-party group of 11 members, published its final report on Thursday following a two-year project.

Its interim report, published in December 2022, reported significant issues with the way Wales is governed within the Union and that the status quo was not a viable foundation for stability and prosperity for the nation.

That report set out three alternative constitutional routes for Wales: independence, a federal system, and enhancing devolution.

The commission’s final report has concluded that all three options are “viable for the long term”, arguing that urgent changes are required to protect the status quo.