2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Virginiá]

Old thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.0

[Virginiá]

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

To be fair, that was coming off 8 years of a Democratic president who spent more time slightly underwater approvals-wise, and with a candidate who was the 2nd most unpopular presidential candidate in history (#1 being Trump). Point being that the Democratic base was unmotivated and Clinton was falling from one bad news cycle to the next.

Meanwhile, now an unpopular and highly controversial incumbent Republican president has fired up the Democratic Party like none other, alienated many voters who previously supported him or might have but sat out 2016, in addition to the myriad drama of 2020.

A lot of this is situational or very candidate-specific. The campaigns themselves weren't terrible. Like, Biden hasn't heavily contested Georgia or Texas but is still in the running to win one or both of them. So campaign investment or lack thereof isn't necessarily a dealbreaker.

[Virginiá]

And I am definitely not a Bernie Sanders fan as people here know, but the primary process that year was objectively rubbish.

Yeah, I agree. Ideally, a competitive primary would have put Clinton's flaws to the test and given a less controversial candidate a chance to take on Trump. Not to say the primary electorate wouldn't have ended up picking Clinton anyway, but it at least would have made it more possible.

I think if there is any lesson the party should take away from the last two nominating contests, it's that a candidate preemptively clearing the field is a bad thing and likely to not end well.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1322636964890333185

[Virginiá]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

[Virginiá]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

We'll lose seats, but there are a few big things working in our favor:
1. Democrats will control redistricting in a lot of states where we didn't last time.
2. DC and Puerto Rico could be states.
3. The Democratic Coalition traded a lot of low-propensity voters for high-propensity ones.
4. Biden is likely to be president as the pandemic and recession end--right before midterms.
5. We don't have a bunch of random blue-dog rural seats that were always going to favor Republicans to defend.

Yeah, those are all great points, without a doubt. But even in the best circumstances, you're still going to see a regression of power unless the in-party is peaking in some sort of generational political realignment. I don't think we're at that point yet.

[Virginiá]

My niece is a first time voter in GA and she voted for Biden. I am a proud uncle

How old are you? I always thought you were college-aged.

[Virginiá]

100 pages and basically 100 million early votes. How fitting!

I think a bunch of pages disappeared a few days ago as well. Not sure what happened.

I split the thread a few days ago because it had gotten to something like 150+ pages. The original is here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.0