2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 640255 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,840
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Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #50 on: November 04, 2020, 07:35:11 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 04, 2020, 07:32:18 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 04, 2020, 07:30:53 AM
Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?
It seems in your anger you killed him

There are some posters that you cannot convince me are not just supernatural manifestations of our best/worst instincts as a community.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #51 on: November 04, 2020, 07:37:57 AM »
Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #52 on: November 04, 2020, 07:46:45 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 04, 2020, 07:40:23 AM
Quote from: Crumpets on November 04, 2020, 07:37:57 AM
Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?
It's legit, but it is realistically a pure tossup now. I'm certainly not counting on it. Hedging my bets on the AZ/NV/WI/MI route now!

Man, if Biden wins AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA, my prediction would only be one state off (NC), even though I got almost everything else completely wrong about the election. Surprise
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #53 on: November 04, 2020, 09:51:38 AM »
When I just pulled up the NYT county swing map, this is the first image that came into my head:
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #54 on: November 04, 2020, 09:57:35 AM »
This may have already been discussed, but anybody know what's going on in Haskell County, KS? NYT has it as 100% Biden - 146 to 0 - albeit with only 10% in.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #55 on: November 04, 2020, 10:05:27 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 04, 2020, 10:03:36 AM
Quote from: Nyvin on November 04, 2020, 09:57:37 AM
Antrim Co Michigan has to be some clerical error or something isn't it?



Was 62-33 Trump in 2016.  It almost completely inversed.
Yeah, that looks very odd indeed.

That county cast 13,667 votes in 2016. That >98% reporting is probably wrong. It might be accurate in terms of number of precincts, but no way is there no more outstanding vote there.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #56 on: November 04, 2020, 10:27:13 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 04, 2020, 10:22:03 AM

Lol this is awesome

I now have an image in my head of some anime daikaiju firing hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots at Tokyo and destroying the city.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #57 on: November 04, 2020, 11:33:01 AM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on November 04, 2020, 11:31:43 AM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 04, 2020, 11:29:21 AM


Anemic.

I thought Biden was +17 in WI?  lol

If only we didn't have an election system that valued a narrow win in a state the same as a blowout win...
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #58 on: November 04, 2020, 12:53:40 PM »
From Annie Karni:

"Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement that Trump 'is well within the threshold to request a recount' in Wisconsin, and that the campaign planned to 'immediately do so.'"
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #59 on: November 04, 2020, 12:55:37 PM »
I wonder if Jill Stein will help back Trump's efforts for a recount in Wisconsin. Tongue
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #60 on: November 04, 2020, 01:43:32 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2020, 01:52:35 PM by Crumpets »
Quote from: Taking the D out of Driftless :( on November 04, 2020, 01:37:09 PM
Quote from: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on November 04, 2020, 01:32:10 PM
When was the last time there was Democratic President, Republican Senate and Democratic House?

Grover Cleveland's first term.

Seems R senate/D house is a rare combination.

Which is striking, since the whole purpose of the Senate/House divide was that the Senate would generally represent the interests of the gentry and the House was the "people's house," and that would seem to line up with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House throughout most of the party systems since 1856.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #61 on: November 04, 2020, 01:46:11 PM »
Quote from: Abolish class on November 04, 2020, 01:44:00 PM
Can someone explain to me wtf happened in Minnesota? Looks like Biden trounced Trump yet the GOP held the state senate. Why are Americans like this

My short and quick take on the ballot splitting is that, time and time again, American voters have shown they generally prefer divided government. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of "Biden's gonna win, might as well keep him in check" voters out there. We saw that clearly in 2016 when Orange County had lots of ticket splitting ahead of an anticipated Clinton win, only for Republicans to get blown out there in 2018.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #62 on: November 04, 2020, 03:25:46 PM »
Quote from: CrimsonCommander688 on November 04, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

1) New cabinet

2) Undoing Trump's executive orders

3) No more Trump-appointed judges. Sure he'll still have to go through McConnell, but at least we can stop the bleeding.

4) No more spur-of-the-moment major military decisions or presidential decrees by tweet

5) We can at least start to rebuild our reputation abroad
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #63 on: November 04, 2020, 03:42:55 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 03:35:47 PM


Hey, if we want to declare Michigan done with Biden currently up 37,000 votes, I'd be cool with that.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #64 on: November 04, 2020, 03:55:21 PM »
I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #65 on: November 04, 2020, 04:06:24 PM »
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on November 04, 2020, 04:02:11 PM
Quote from: Crumpets on November 04, 2020, 03:55:21 PM
I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

He's overtaken her since I posted, at least by the NYT count. He was up a clean 2 points when I posted.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #66 on: November 04, 2020, 04:12:09 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 04, 2020, 04:07:17 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 04, 2020, 04:02:29 PM
Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

At least looking at the NYT map now, Antrim is back to showing zero votes. So Republicans can still get a net ~3,000 over the NYT numbers, but not the full 6,000.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #67 on: November 04, 2020, 04:17:54 PM »
Biden's lead in Michigan has almost doubled just within the last hour. Hard to see other networks not following suit soon.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #68 on: November 04, 2020, 04:20:04 PM »

Starring Morgan Freeman. Coming soon to a socially-distant theater near you.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #69 on: November 04, 2020, 04:21:17 PM »
Biden just now:

"I’m not here to declare that we’ve won, but I am here to report that when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners."
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #70 on: November 04, 2020, 04:40:41 PM »
Not sure if this has already been posted (about 45 minutes old), but:
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #71 on: November 04, 2020, 04:46:14 PM »
Quote from: Georgia Democrat in 2020 on November 04, 2020, 04:43:15 PM
Watching Eric Trump and Giuliani in Philadelphia screaming about claims of voter fraud.

This pathetic scene would be hilarious if this weren't so serious.

At least they picked the two Trump people least respected by the media and the public writ large.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #72 on: November 04, 2020, 04:46:43 PM »
NYT just called Michigan!
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #73 on: November 04, 2020, 05:19:57 PM »
Quote from: emailking on November 04, 2020, 05:16:41 PM


I know I like it when my President talks to me in a way that looks like I'm installing malware.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #74 on: November 04, 2020, 05:37:57 PM »
Nate Cohn just implied on the NYT blog that Nevada is still releasing some results tonight. Not sure what his sources are.
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