2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Crumpets]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

I'm not so sure. Look at how NC has trended relative to the nation as a whole since 1996:

1996: R+13
2000: R+13
2004: R+10
2008: R+7
2012: R+6
2016: R+6

NC has been trending clearly Dem for at least 20 years, albeit more slowly in the last couple of cycles. Unless that trend reverses by at least two points this year and NC votes 8 points to the right of the nation for the first time since 2004, I think Biden can safely expect to win NC if he's winning by 6 nationally, and possibly as little as 4 or 5 if that trend continues.

[Crumpets]

My thoughts exactly.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320416777281720324

For once Republicans will be able to experience the feeling of "omg there's a flash flood in XYZ important place! The election shouldn't be decided by random acts of nature like this!" And maybe we'll be able to get some decent bipartisan election reforms through as a result.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320890876554629120

This is a key point that I think a lot of people are missing. Voter registration numbers and even voting in past primaries is a strongly lagging indicator of how people vote. I'd be astounded if the past voting history of early voters in a place like Hays County is indicative of anything other than how that group might have voted 4 years ago. Likewise, I really doubt a landslide of registered Democrats will mean much of anything in the Florida panhandle. Our best bet is probably going to be tracking the polls that have asked the "already voted" question, averaging those out by state, matching them against the early voting numbers, and then working back from there to gauge what crossover support looks like instead of trying to induce how someone is voting by what kinds of elections they have voted in in the past. 

[Crumpets]

It doesn't make sense to me that you can both be worried about turnout in Miami-Dade and worried about Trump doing very well with Cuban-Americans there. It seems more likely that if Trump is doing well with Cuban-Americans then that would explain why turnout there has been less strong as Trump voters everywhere have been holding out until election day. And if you're of the opinion that "a vote already cast is more valuable than the intention to vote," then it seems like Miami-Dade's numbers are generally a wash if we're expecting it to trend R relative to the rest of the state.

All that is to say, if we're looking at a place like Texas and guessing that the huge early vote turnout places will probably trend D, then if we expect Miami-Dade to trend R, we should also expect it to have a weaker early vote showing with absolutely nothing else to be inferred about the final results.

[Crumpets]

My ballot has officially been counted!

[Crumpets]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

                               Ralston^                             ^Atlas

[Crumpets]

/pol/ is losing it over the Pennsylvania early voting #s lmao

Losing it in which direction?

[Crumpets]

We've officially crossed the 90 million vote mark nation-wide.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1322636964890333185

Turns out the historic enthusiasm in 2008 was actually just a result of Biden being the VP nominee. Whooda thunk.

[Crumpets]

94 Million Votes. Here's Michael McDonald's final assessment. He seems surprisingly bearish on Biden's chances in NC.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html

If you input his "calls" into the 538 state flipping calculator (OR, CO, AZ, NV, ME to Biden, NC to Trump, PA, IA, and FL tossups) it spits out 96% chance of Biden win, 3% chance of Trump win, 1% chance of tie.

[Crumpets]

Quick thoughts on Billings: of all the cities in Montana, it's easily the one most influenced by the oil and gas sector, hence why it has been the slowest to trend D despite being also the largest city in the state. In recent years, a lot of young people in the region have been attracted to Montana's cities because they're pretty much the only place in the west where you can live in a semi-major city with sports, concerts, and culture on a monthly rent of $650. I think Yellowstone County will certainly swing D, but if fears over Biden's oil comments turn out to be real, it probably won't outright flip to him. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a Bullock-Trump County either if Bullock has a good night.

[Crumpets]

I tried mailing in my ballot 3 weekends ago because I was too lazy to drive/bike to the nearest dropbox, but got my ballot returned in the mail the next week. Had to drop it off at my local library the following weekend.

Still have no idea why the USPS didn’t process it. The return envelope said ballot postage was pre-paid...

Patriot Prayer infiltration of Oregon USPS?