USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Nyvin]

I can't watch the live feed atm - Has it started?

[Nyvin]

Holy CRAP!! Texas +2 and Florida +1?!?!??!

[Nyvin]

Alabama and Rhode Island actually weren't even all that close to losing seats...weird.

[Nyvin]

Hispanic-heavy states all universally took a hit (AZ/FL/TX in particular).   Seems like Trump's efforts with the Census Bureau really sabotaged those states pretty hard.

[Nyvin]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

Alabama, Minnesota, and Wisconsin "gaining" a seat?   

Also I think you're a bit too hopeful on the Midwest in general.

[Nyvin]

Could New York make a case about the Census missing enough overseas people to gain back it's 27th seat?

[Nyvin]

In terms of NY being so close, what would've been the 436th seat?

NY-27, apparently.

Yeah, I definitely worded that wrong. I meant to ask about the 435th seat. Who would lose if NY kept it's 27th seat?

MN-8

[Nyvin]

Northwest Arkansas continues to be a growth hub island in a vast sea of declines.

[Nyvin]

Clark County NV actually ended up a bit below 73% of the state, bleh.    Looks like one of the congressional districts actually does have to take in a good chunk of the rurals.

[Nyvin]

Clark County NV actually ended up a bit below 73% of the state, bleh.    Looks like one of the congressional districts actually does have to take in a good chunk of the rurals.

160k-170k people look likely to be added to the rest-of-Clark CD. The 4th might actually move north.

I have it at 63k,  170k people would be pretty much almost everything outside the Reno/Carson City area.

[Nyvin]

Wisconsin’s data https://madison.com/wisconsin-change-in-total-population-by-county-from-2010-to-2020/html_2536aafe-90dc-5707-b2ac-8c6c75ce48e4.html

My initial thoughts are as follows:
-The rurals did ok. Marinette, Florence, Iron, Bayfield, Burnett, Polk, and Douglas were all supposed to lose population (none did-in fact, Bayfield and Burnett grew substantially). The areas that were supposed to lose the most, (Price, Rusk, Lincoln, and Langlade) lost much less than expected. Overall, rural numbers mean good things for the GOP, with the exception the Dems should be able to keep their Senate seat in Douglas/Ashland/Bayfield counties.

-Dane grew more than expected; 2020 estimate was 552,000, in reality it was 561,000. Too bad for Dems that it’s so blue already. One saving grace for them though is that LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Sauk, Green and Columbia all grew faster than predicted, and Richland, Crawford, Lafayette, and Buffalo all lost, meaning it would actually be easier to make WI-3 more blue.

-Brown, Calumet and Outagamie grew faster than expected, meaning WI-8 will need to shed some heavily R rural territory.

-WI-6, WI-7, and WI-5 can easily take on more red territory, WI-1 and WI-4 will swap some suburban territory.

Overall, it’s a wash, but the pubs should have a bonus state assembly seat because rurals were underestimated.

It kinda looked like the rurals in Wisconsin (and to a lesser extent Minnesota) did much better than what was seen elsewhere in the country.

[Nyvin]

How long before DRA has these numbers inputed???

They're saying 4 days, so end of day monday, 8/16.

[Nyvin]

This is kinda wild -

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1426193763714707456

"Shrinking America" is almost exclusively trending right

"Growing America" is overwhelmingly trending left.