USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Attempting 9-0 TN is a dummymander

Not if you just baconmander all the districts (yes, including the ones that eat parts of Memphis) all the way to eastern Tennessee.

Would that look awkward?

Yes.

But does it actually matter at all how it looks on a map?

No.

The voters are all just going to vote for whichever candidate has an R by their name anyway. It doesn't matter who that candidate is, where they come from, or even what district they are running in.

A lot of posters on Atlas still operate, to varying degrees, under the delusion that redistricting in the contemporary USA is about things like "communities of interest" or "traditional redistricting principles" or other such relics of the past. But what it really is about is simply rigging the election results so that whichever party one wants to win will always win, regardless of who the voters might actually vote for. Voters don't need (or want) a "Representative" from their community/local area. They want a "Representative" with the correct letter who will unthinkingly attack anyone with a different letter, and be unbreakably tribally loyal to the leader of their letter-group, and bow to whatever are the whims of that leader without question, and who afterward will post inane and vapid memes about it on facebook or twitter so that they can share them with other people in their letter-in-group. This is what the people want.

[Coastal Elitist]

I'm not sure why people think these numbers will result in dems losing less seats in redistricting. You can still do 10-4 GA, 11-3 NC, 26-12 TX, 20-8 FL, 13-2 OH, 9-0 TN and so on. You just have to shift things with populations changes but you can still draw out dem incumbents and put them in safe R seats.

Wait how is that even possible or legal. 

My bad I meant 8-1

[walleye26]

Wisconsin’s data https://madison.com/wisconsin-change-in-total-population-by-county-from-2010-to-2020/html_2536aafe-90dc-5707-b2ac-8c6c75ce48e4.html

My initial thoughts are as follows:
-The rurals did ok. Marinette, Florence, Iron, Bayfield, Burnett, Polk, and Douglas were all supposed to lose population (none did-in fact, Bayfield and Burnett grew substantially). The areas that were supposed to lose the most, (Price, Rusk, Lincoln, and Langlade) lost much less than expected. Overall, rural numbers mean good things for the GOP, with the exception the Dems should be able to keep their Senate seat in Douglas/Ashland/Bayfield counties.

-Dane grew more than expected; 2020 estimate was 552,000, in reality it was 561,000. Too bad for Dems that it’s so blue already. One saving grace for them though is that LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Sauk, Green and Columbia all grew faster than predicted, and Richland, Crawford, Lafayette, and Buffalo all lost, meaning it would actually be easier to make WI-3 more blue.

-Brown, Calumet and Outagamie grew faster than expected, meaning WI-8 will need to shed some heavily R rural territory.

-WI-6, WI-7, and WI-5 can easily take on more red territory, WI-1 and WI-4 will swap some suburban territory.

Overall, it’s a wash, but the pubs should have a bonus state assembly seat because rurals were underestimated.

[Nyvin]

Wisconsin’s data https://madison.com/wisconsin-change-in-total-population-by-county-from-2010-to-2020/html_2536aafe-90dc-5707-b2ac-8c6c75ce48e4.html

My initial thoughts are as follows:
-The rurals did ok. Marinette, Florence, Iron, Bayfield, Burnett, Polk, and Douglas were all supposed to lose population (none did-in fact, Bayfield and Burnett grew substantially). The areas that were supposed to lose the most, (Price, Rusk, Lincoln, and Langlade) lost much less than expected. Overall, rural numbers mean good things for the GOP, with the exception the Dems should be able to keep their Senate seat in Douglas/Ashland/Bayfield counties.

-Dane grew more than expected; 2020 estimate was 552,000, in reality it was 561,000. Too bad for Dems that it’s so blue already. One saving grace for them though is that LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Sauk, Green and Columbia all grew faster than predicted, and Richland, Crawford, Lafayette, and Buffalo all lost, meaning it would actually be easier to make WI-3 more blue.

-Brown, Calumet and Outagamie grew faster than expected, meaning WI-8 will need to shed some heavily R rural territory.

-WI-6, WI-7, and WI-5 can easily take on more red territory, WI-1 and WI-4 will swap some suburban territory.

Overall, it’s a wash, but the pubs should have a bonus state assembly seat because rurals were underestimated.

It kinda looked like the rurals in Wisconsin (and to a lesser extent Minnesota) did much better than what was seen elsewhere in the country.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is there a link to the data. I want to look at NC.

Population data

https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/arcgis/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2566121a73de463995ed2b2fd7ff6eb7

Demographic data

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/racial-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-united-states-2010-and-2020-census.html

Kind of amazing.  The county population change map basically looks like a blue vs. red map, with blue counties almost universally gaining population and red counties mostly losing population.  Yet everyone still seems to think redistricting will be a big boon to Republicans (even though they control less of the process than they did last time).

[Vern]

How long before DRA has these numbers inputed???

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1425877136997502988?s=20

[Nyvin]

How long before DRA has these numbers inputed???

They're saying 4 days, so end of day monday, 8/16.

[Vern]

How long before DRA has these numbers inputed???

They're saying 4 days, so end of day monday, 8/16.

I can't wait to make a bunch of new maps

[jimrtex]

Alright, here are some of the trends I noticed overall about this census:

2. Sun Belt ain't so hot:

This seems to be the story after every single census. For all the reports about huge growth in the sunbelt, it always seems to be overexaggerated. The estimates for areas such as San Antonio and Phoenix were noticeably bad, but in general most urban, suburban, and rural areas down south underperformed.

Bexar had been estimated to grow at 17.9% over the decade, and the Census only shows 17.1%.

That is not noticeably bad.

[jimrtex]

Anyone know how to convert a .pl file into a .XLSX or .CSV file?

The easiest way is to add an ".txt" to the end of the file name, and read into Excel.

Then say that the file is delimited with a pipe character/vertical bar ( | ).

What specifically are you trying to get?

You will likely be getting a lot more than you want.

If you just want total population for counties or cities in a state it is pretty easy.

[Zaybay]

Alright, here are some of the trends I noticed overall about this census:

2. Sun Belt ain't so hot:

This seems to be the story after every single census. For all the reports about huge growth in the sunbelt, it always seems to be overexaggerated. The estimates for areas such as San Antonio and Phoenix were noticeably bad, but in general most urban, suburban, and rural areas down south underperformed.

Bexar had been estimated to grow at 17.9% over the decade, and the Census only shows 17.1%.

That is not noticeably bad.

I thought it was pretty clear, since I used the city names of Phoenix and San Antonio instead of Maricopa and Bexar, that I was referring to the city of San Antonio, and not to Bexar county.

Here are the stats for anyone curious.

San Antonio projected growth: 16.6%
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.2019.html

San Antonio actual growth: 8.1%
https://www.kens5.com/article/news/local/census-breakdown-us-texas-satx-2020/273-ff46cb3a-3d7a-4430-8453-75235cc667d7

Personally, I'd say that seeing only half of the growth projected is noticeably bad, but to each their own.

[Suburbia]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

[jimrtex]

Smaller Texas counties were overestimated. This appears to particularly pronounced in Oil producing areas such as the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and Austin Chalk.

It might be that the estimates were catching people living in temporary housing: Trailers, Hotels, and man camps. Towards the end of the decade this might have tailed off. The estimates of migration are largely based on income tax returns which lag population (e.g. 2020 tax returns are filed in 2021 and may not be processed until 2022).

An example is Zavalla which estimates showed increasing from 11.7K in 2010 to 12.3K in 2015 to 11.8K in 2020, but which the Census showed as 9.7K.

That is outside the range from 1930 to 2010. There might be significant migrant labor who were missed due to the delay in the Census.

Census Pop	Deviation
1M+	-0.38%
500K-1M	0.01%
200K-500K	-0.44%
100K-200K	0.05%
50K-100K	0.62%
20K-50K	-2.42%
10K-20K	-3.25%
5K-10K	-4.45%
2K-5K	-7.72%
1K-2K	-9.48%
0-1K	-7.16%

There may be systemic error, but it may be highly localized.  The largest counties are down, but only slightly. Some but not all ring suburban counties were underestimated.

County	Population	Deviation
Coryell	83093	8.3%
Bastrop	97216	6.8%
Walker	76400	6.0%
Navarro	52624	4.1%
Van Zandt	59541	3.9%
Harrison	68839	3.6%
Taylor	143208	3.0%
El Paso	865657	2.9%
San Patricio	68755	2.7%
Kaufman	145310	2.6%
Starr	65920	2.5%
Jefferson	256526	2.4%
Orange	84808	2.2%
Potter	118525	1.9%
Galveston	350682	1.8%
Guadalupe	172706	1.7%
Ellis	192455	1.2%
Hays	241067	1.0%
Randall	140753	0.9%
Liberty	91628	0.9%
Parker	148222	0.8%
Brazos	233849	0.8%
Johnson	179927	0.6%
Bell	370647	0.6%
McLennan	260579	0.5%
Hunt	99956	0.4%
Lamar	50088	0.4%
Anderson	57922	0.1%
Collin	1064465	0.1%
Tom Green	120003	0.1%
Gregg	124239	0.0%
Harris	4731145	-0.1%
Nacogdoches	64653	-0.2%
Waller	56794	-0.2%
Montgomery	620443	-0.2%
Travis	1290188	-0.3%
Hidalgo	870781	-0.4%
Kerr	52598	-0.4%
Tarrant	2110640	-0.4%
Williamson	609017	-0.4%
Angelina	86395	-0.6%
Denton	906422	-0.6%
Bexar	2009324	-0.6%
Victoria	91319	-0.7%
Bowie	92893	-0.7%
Smith	233479	-0.7%
Cameron	421017	-0.7%
Rockwall	107819	-0.8%
Comal	161501	-0.8%
Maverick	57887	-0.9%
Dallas	2613539	-0.9%
Lubbock	310639	-1.1%
Fort Bend	822779	-1.3%
Ector	165171	-1.3%
Grayson	135543	-1.7%
Henderson	82150	-1.8%
Brazoria	372031	-1.9%
Hood	61598	-2.4%
Nueces	353178	-2.8%
Medina	50748	-2.8%
Wichita	129350	-2.8%
Wise	68632	-3.0%
Hardin	56231	-3.4%
Webb	267114	-3.8%
Rusk	52214	-4.0%
Midland	169983	-4.3%
Cherokee	50412	-4.6%
Polk	50123	-4.6%

[Non Swing Voter]

If you look at a lot of the city growth you can see how the new economy is concentrating populations in and around new cities with a significant university presence versus old industrial ones.  For instance, Raleigh area in NC, Boston, MA.  Or if you look at Madison vs. Milwaukee in WI.  Probably lots of startup tech companies and other things in the same region as the universities people went to (which can also get a lot of skilled workers). 

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Why would they go anywhere?  They are already the minority in state politics.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1425877136997502988?s=20

Honestly, I'm not buying it - unless there's some really good evidence to suggest that even post-AVR like 75% of non-voters in the state are non-white.

[Suburbia]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Why would they go anywhere?  They are already the minority in state politics.

Why would they stay where their views are not represented? They'll move to FL or maybe PA

[Continential]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Why would they go anywhere?  They are already the minority in state politics.

Why would they stay where their views are not represented? They'll move to FL or maybe PA

Because they have homes and jobs and possibly family in the area.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Why would they go anywhere?  They are already the minority in state politics.

Why would they stay where their views are not represented? They'll move to FL or maybe PA

Why would anyone live in any congressional district not represented by their preferred party? Who are the 40% of people in any 60-40 congressional district and why haven't they left?

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Why would they go anywhere?  They are already the minority in state politics.

Why would they stay where their views are not represented? They'll move to FL or maybe PA

Right but what about this election changes anything?  NY has been voting Democratic for 40 years.  Why would these people decide to leave now because their "views are not represented"?

Also, people get too worked up about national politics but if anything local politicians have a lot more impact on their day to day lives.

[Vosem]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Why would they go anywhere?  They are already the minority in state politics.

Why would they stay where their views are not represented? They'll move to FL or maybe PA

Why do Democrats stay in Texas? Or Republicans in California? The single county which provided Donald Trump the most votes, in the whole United States, was Los Angeles County, California.

[Brittain33]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Starten Island Republicans can be outvoted by Manhattan and Brooklyn Dems in a single district. Long Island Republicans can get one pack.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1425877136997502988?s=20

Honestly, I'm not buying it - unless there's some really good evidence to suggest that even post-AVR like 75% of non-voters in the state are non-white.

CVAP would be like 56% white, which makes sense with election results.

[muon2]

Fun fact - Yakutat borough AK has the exact same population it did in 2010: 662.