2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Nyvin]

Ohio looks like it will be within a few points. That tells me that Biden has won the Presidency...

It's hard to imagine Ohio being down to the wire and Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin all going for Trump, so yeah, I still have Biden winning overall.

[Nyvin]

Ohio still has tons left in Franklin, Cuyahoga, Hamilton, Lucas, and Summit, and lots of Rural counties are nearly done.   There's no way Ohio isn't competitive for Biden still.

[Nyvin]

 Dang Hennepin MN counts votes fast

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/ErinMcPike/status/1323829281663930368

HUGE! 

[Nyvin]

The 2012 map +AZ/NE-2 and -FL might actually be quite realistic here.     I still think NC can go either way though, but probably won't matter for President.

[Nyvin]

Cook County MN is weird,  voted 56% Clinton and now voting 65% Biden, despite not having anything that really resembles a Dem trending area.   wtf

[Nyvin]

Antrim Co Michigan has to be some clerical error or something isn't it?



Was 62-33 Trump in 2016.  It almost completely inversed.

[Nyvin]

Arizona just got a big dump

Yeah, that can definitely be called for Biden now.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=19

What an idiot,  there's nothing "magical" or "strange" about it, it happens every fricking election.

[Nyvin]

Do we know who is up in ME-02 for president? I want as much insurance as possible in case PA doesn't flip and in case Nebraska decides to change its EV split system after the fact.

The Republicans don't have a filibuster-proof majority in the legislature so they can't change the EV split. They've tried and failed.

Is that filibuster constitutionally entrenched?

No, they can end it with a rule change.   Unclear if there's the political will for that though.

[Nyvin]

If you ignore history and just look at demographics and population distribution, Georgia being to the left of Florida makes total sense. 

I won't be surprised at all if this becomes the norm from now on.

[Nyvin]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

It's nearly impossible for Republicans to get the House,  there's plenty of uncalled seats that are heavily leaning towards dems, like WA-8, MI-5, AZ-1, and a ton in California.

[Nyvin]

If Trump does win Georgia,  this may very well be the last time in a long while that a Republican will be able to win it.

[Nyvin]

So Dave Wasserman is saying he doesn’t believe there are only 120k uncounted ballots in Philadelphia. That would be a decrease in turnout there

Isn’t Philly a city that is shrinking in population ?

If the population of a city is shrinking (especially because of American citizens moving out), raw turnout could decrease, while other parts of the country see an increase.

Also, ballots are being received in PA today and tomorrow.

There could be slightly more than 120.000 left then.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324375334653988864?s=19

So what?

[Nyvin]

Please celebrate, but don't gloat, if/when Biden takes the lead in these states counting mail ballots.  I don't believe that there is anything majorly fraudulent going on here, but it is still really hard watching apparent leads disappear even if you know it's coming.  I remember that well from the AZ-SEN and several CA House races in 2018.  We need to find a more efficient way of counting mail ballots going forward because this sort of result seems fishy to people who don't pay that close of attention to why it's happening, and that appearance can be real for so many people.

Get the Republican legislature to allow early processing of ballots.

This is intentional design, and it's designed by Republican Politicians.

[Nyvin]

Is GA gonna count those remaining 48K ballots or

They aren’t nearly Democratic enough to make a difference at this point

And you're saying this based on what exactly?

[Nyvin]

*rolls out 55 gallon drum of lotion*

It’s gettin’ real.

I just wanna say, as a gay man, I'm looking forward to future updates.

Fellow gays represent!

Atlas baybee! I got here the year I realized I was gay and this was the first place where I really knew a significant amount of LGBT people.

I’m here, I’m gay (albeit with a bi-cycle) and I wouldn’t have it any other way!

At this point, I would like all the forum gays to identify themselves.

Reporting for duty!

Atlas gays, assemble!

Gay here, and happily married ^.^ 

Same sex marriage is what originally sparked my interests in politics way back in 2004.

[Nyvin]

Isn't this not true? Isn't there stuff out in Cobb and Gwinnett?

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324510129580990464

Looks like just Gwinnet, Clayton, Floyd, and Taylor.   

Cobb is done counting I guess?

[Nyvin]

I think Trump will concede. If I was him, and what he would do if he didn't want to concede, would be to hold rallies claiming himself as the legitimate leader, calling any Republican who disagreed "traitors" and calling on his supporters to rally against anyone supporting validity of mail-in votes.

That is literally, to the word,  a coup.

[Nyvin]

Geez he really is that stupid huh?   Maybe he really can't read.

[Nyvin]

Holy hell, Trump is getting absolutely destroyed in Delaware county, PA.

Not really, it didn't change much from 2016.

[Nyvin]

Trump +48 in PA now.

48... votes?

Link now, please!

48k

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/perez4az/status/1324559557918556161

What do they want?  To stop the vote count in Arizona?   Do they understand what that means?

[Nyvin]

Trump is a pathetic president who lost the popular vote in his first election, and is only the fourth US President in history to lose re-election.

He accomplished almost nothing, had an absolute inept administration with multiple resignations, convictions, and scandals.

He'll go down as the most pathetic president we've ever had.