GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Warnock won the EV in Pulaski County....

How did that look in November?

Well, Pulaski voted for Trump in 2020 by a margin of 69-30.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Warnock won the EV in Pulaski County....

Good for Masters (I hope this Twitter joke lands)

Somebody made that comment in a reply to Nate Cohn today, and he had to have it explained to him.

Please explain this to me. This is my first time seeing this joke.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Warnock won the EV in Pulaski County....

Good for Masters (I hope this Twitter joke lands)

Somebody made that comment in a reply to Nate Cohn today, and he had to have it explained to him.

Please explain this to me. This is my first time seeing this joke.

There was some guy who responded to every Garrett Archer tweet about Arizona that it was very good for Masters.

Ah. I see. Thanks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The vampire vote just isn’t there for walker

#WerewolvesForWalker never got off the ground.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The vampire vote just isn’t there for walker

#WerewolvesForWalker never got off the ground.

furries are overwhelmingly left-leaning anyway.

Yeah, they are left-leaning, but did they watch UGA games in the 80s?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1600287561116946438

Roughly a 7-point shift left from November.

Ouch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How is Whitfield County GA looking?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rabun (far North GA mountains on NC border) nearly all in (>95%) 77 Walker/23 Warnock. 

How did it vote in November?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Towns County >95% in (this one is in North GA)

Walker 80%
Warnock 20%

~6,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 81%
Ossoff 19%

~7,200 votes cast back then.

Rabun County >95% in (this one is also in North GA)

Walker 77%
Warnock 23%

~7,400 votes cast so far.

January 2021:

Perdue 79%
Ossoff 21%

~8,400 votes cast back then.

Why do you only report the R favorable trends, is this a form of cope?

He's reporting counties that have counted all the votes. It so happens that early in the night those are the ones with a small number of votes, which are almost exlcusively Republican.

And the trends are not R friendly - most counties he reported have Walker underperforming Perdue and with a lower turnout.

Turnout being down is particularly bad for Walker. He needs to increase his net vote gains from said counties...and he's failing at that. If he goes from winning a county 60-40 with 10k votes cast to winning a county 65-35 with only 5k votes, that a big net loss for him.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This isn't consistent with a Warnock +4 result at all so far.

Warnock+4 will depend on how well he does in counties like Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett. I don't think we can make a judgement either way on this, yet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Warnock seems to be doing fine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

Lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

Walker wins Walker. Walker sweep.

Walkerception

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Felt like only 5-6 pages and 30 minutes ago that folks were all glum about this not being a 5+ point blowout for Warnock

It wouldn't be Atlas if we didn't drastically overreact to every slight little change.

True

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The needle is being detained by the military. Patriots in control.

The needle is going to be stuck in Fort Chattahochee for a bit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm surprised people still care so much about the election needle.

The needle is love, the needle is life.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dougherty county, home of Albany, now fully reporting. Went from Warnock +41 to Warnock -43.

oh no, that's an 84 swing against Warnock! We're screwed.

DEMS IN DISARRAY

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MARICOPA INCOMING

Election Day votes from Maricopa will be enough to get Walker over the line! Rrrrrrriight, guys?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A bit sad but Spalding County basically didn't swing. However, the county really hasn't been taken into metro Atlanta's influence yet, the the black suburbs aren't spilling into it yet, but it's def on the list in teh future.

lack of a swing in Spalding is good for Warnock in the sense it's bad for Walker. Walker needs places like Spalding to swing in his favor if he is to make up the deficit he has from November, let alone win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Warnock's final margin might seem a tad underwhelming...but imagine if someone in 2016 told you these would be the results the next the seat was up for a full term.

Yeah.
There'd be jubiliation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In 2004 George Bush won Rockdale County with 60% of the vote. Warnock is winning it tonight with 75% of the vote.

GOOD LORD

I'm assuming this is a suburban county? Good lord, what an absolutely insane shift in coalitions...

Yep, just southeast of DeKalb

75% for Warnock in Rockdale is just insane. It gave Biden less than 70% of the vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1600311811869650944

Plains, GA: repeatedly closer than Maryland was in the first decade of the 20th century.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

Tonight is a battle between Werewolves (Republicans) and Vampires (Democrats), duh.

This is actually the reverse of how it used to be. Traditionally in the southern states, vampires were able to assimilate will within society and became super wealthy (their pale skin helped) However they like to live in urban and suburban areas because they need humans to feed on for bloodmeals. Vampires traditionally were Republican due to their wealth but as suburbs have trended D so have vampires. I think Hillary was the first to win the vampire vote in Georgia by a plurality since Carter.

Werewolves on the other hand are far more rural due to historic marginalization and are far less well off/working class. They traditionally have voted like other minorities although recently the werewolf community has begun to trend right rapidly. While still D on the net, Walker needs to cut those margins from 2020 honestly due to vampire bleeding.

At this point both groups vote more D than humans but that could change.

I reposted this in the Atlas Hilarity thread in Forum Community btw: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259314.msg8902917#msg8902917

Nice. It belongs there. Incredible post, really.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if Warnock will hold onto Fayette.  Warnock +10 with 69% reporting.

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It might be close, but I still have hope Warnock holds his lead in this county. Of course, I am ready to accept anything to the contrary...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

Tonight is a battle between Werewolves (Republicans) and Vampires (Democrats), duh.

This is actually the reverse of how it used to be. Traditionally in the southern states, vampires were able to assimilate will within society and became super wealthy (their pale skin helped) However they like to live in urban and suburban areas because they need humans to feed on for bloodmeals. Vampires traditionally were Republican due to their wealth but as suburbs have trended D so have vampires. I think Hillary was the first to win the vampire vote in Georgia by a plurality since Carter.

Werewolves on the other hand are far more rural due to historic marginalization and are far less well off/working class. They traditionally have voted like other minorities although recently the werewolf community has begun to trend right rapidly. While still D on the net, Walker needs to cut those margins from 2020 honestly due to vampire bleeding.

At this point both groups vote more D than humans but that could change.

I reposted this in the Atlas Hilarity thread in Forum Community btw: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259314.msg8902917#msg8902917

Nice. It belongs there. Incredible post, really.

Thank you!

My pleasure! You've been kind to me, only fair for me to reciprocate.