Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Whatever happens, can we agree to NOT delete posts if we were wrong? That takes the fun out of things.

Lol if people did that half this thread would vanish

True, LOL.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok, that's reason no. 2 for me not to rate this as Tossup instead of D-leaning. (no. 1 being the Election Day vote)
I trust Sabato.

Sabato does tend to know what he's talking about most of the time which is certainly something to take into consideration there.

Sabato does have a good track record, yes.
I read through the analysis and saw the crux of his stated reason was the fall in Biden's approvals though, and he himself was not very sure of the conclusion he made.

It's worth noting that as of late the fall in Biden approvals is only part of the story. The disapprovals are stuck at 51%. It's clear what is happening - people who aren't fans of Biden's job performance but are still loyal Democrats, to the point they are even unwilling to say they disapprove of his job performance. It's clear that Biden's fall in approvals has basically minimal in terms of impact on the election, because these sorts of voters would have voted for T-Mac anyway.

Biden's approvals don't function the same way as we're used to in some areas - it's not surprising if they didn't in this way either. I still think McAuliffe is favored. On that basis, I found myself disagreeing with Sabato. But I respect his stance on this all the same.
A lot of uncertainty on this, a lot of the fog, will be cleared over the next two days.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Youngkin campaign is trying to pretend like it's massively ahead.
That seems like a bad tactical decision but maybe they calculate that this will generate the rural VA turnout he needs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is pretty cool

https://twitter.com/mcbyrne/status/1455309096538845187

I don't get it? It just seems to be a projector onto a house?

It's cool to see modern projecting technology on the campaign trail. It'd be neat regardless of which candidate was doing it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Win or lose i am proud I was voter 3 in fairfax county on September 17th

Best of luck man! Vote early, vote often!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

another under-discussed issue on the education front:  less than half of Virginia students are in person school full time

https://twitter.com/ifihadastick/status/1455319645154693126?s=20

Isn't that during the Spring?

I assume its 95% now?

huh, I guess you're right. I'm not sure what the current number is.  Still having them out of in-person school for so long is an issue of dissatisfaction for a lot of people.

Yeah Chap Petersen was the Democrat who called them out the rest of the party on the issue.

Can see why you put him in your displayname. He's a maverick-y figure from the looks of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

another under-discussed issue on the education front:  less than half of Virginia students are in person school full time

https://twitter.com/ifihadastick/status/1455319645154693126?s=20

Isn't that during the Spring?

I assume its 95% now?

huh, I guess you're right. I'm not sure what the current number is.  Still having them out of in-person school for so long is an issue of dissatisfaction for a lot of people.

Yeah Chap Petersen was the Democrat who called them out the rest of the party on the issue.

Can see why you put him in your displayname. He's a maverick-y figure from the looks of it.

Mostly just meming due to the election coming beforehand but he is quite interesting. He even opposed an assault weapons ban while coming from a 70% Biden seat in Fairfax county !

He kind of sounds like if I was a VA state senator lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Youngkin campaign is trying to pretend like it's massively ahead.
That seems like a bad tactical decision but maybe they calculate that this will generate the rural VA turnout he needs.

Seems like he's trying to lay the groundwork for a "stolen election" narrative should he lose, convince his supporters that fraud was the only possible thing that could've happened. 

I mean, we all saw the Fox poll. Clearly Youngkin is winning by 8 points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

The early votes are already being counted as we speak.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

I BLESS THE RAINS DOWWWN IN NOOOOOOVVVVAAA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

Actually the way the forecast has been changing I wouldn't be surprised if the weather is worse in SWVA / Shenandoah area. 

Jokes aside, is there anything to the idea that weather substantially influences turnout?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hype, looking forward to watching all of us make unreasonable assumptions from turnout reports.  Anyways whats the weather supposed to be in Northern Virginia tommorrow?

Early afternoon showers.

So we're doomed, got it

Actually the way the forecast has been changing I wouldn't be surprised if the weather is worse in SWVA / Shenandoah area. 

Jokes aside, is there anything to the idea that weather substantially influences turnout?

Not really, but given that the GOP base in VA is substantially older I wouldn't want tons of rain in rural VA if I were Youngkin.  Especially since he's banked far fewer early votes.

I guess lots of voters are going to be carrying umbrellas. Especially in Northern Virginia and in the areas west of the Fall Line.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can we expect >90% of the vote in before dawn? Or is this another Cali situation where mail-in ballots take ages to count?

The early votes are already being counted as we speak.

Ok this is cool, so it'll be more like Florida where results are known extremely fast (less than 2 hours)?

And will there be a counting bias?

A bunch of votes will appear counted at the very start after polls close, and those will be (at least part of) the early vote.  It will lean Dem because a lot of them will come from Fairfax and neighboring deep blue counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s raining in NoVA today, if anyone cared.

The weather says it is but so far it’s dry.

WEATHER FRAUD!

Hello, can we audit the weather?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the same guy who was a mess election day 2017.

This time, he's not including the nearly 2,000 VBM votes in Charlottesville on top of the 4500 early votes.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455532521207250945

Failing to take into account things like VBM and early votes in this sort of analysis is just malpractice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing we can all agree on - if Rs win it's not because it was too hard to vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Presented without comment:
https://twitter.com/YoungKimCA/status/1455528329235374086

DAMN, calling for McAuliffe, this is over now. How many more races is she going to cost us?

Young Kim's homophobia is the single biggest problem for Republicans in the 2022 midterms.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anecdotal turnout reports 🥴

Look, it's Atlas, someone is bound to it.
Early hysteria on basis of anecdotal reports is the Atlas Way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Presented without comment:
https://twitter.com/YoungKimCA/status/1455528329235374086

DAMN, calling for McAuliffe, this is over now. How many more races is she going to cost us?

Youngkin wins: Young Kim is the first unbeatable titan to transfer her powers, Biden+10 seats safe R in 2022
Youngkin loses: Young Kim endorsement is the kiss of death, the memes were right, House tilt D in 2022 depending on the number of kiss of death endorsements she gives

This.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well off to go vote for Governor elect T-Mac.

Best of luck man!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

Hugh Hewitt has been a hot mess for years now, so not too surprising there

Hugh Hewitt hackishly predicting Youngkin winning before voting has even ended is par for course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

why the hell was my Election Day turnout report thread deleted? 

It wasn’t deleted. It was merged into this thread, all posts were saved. It’s best to have one megathread rather than multiple parallel discussions.

You're right. Thank you.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a bloodbath.
https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455532521207250945?s=21

Usually there is a flood of votes before work (2017 I imagine was like this) then it calms down til after work hours.  The pace appears different this year with everyone working from home.  It's more just steady all day.  That's what I'm taking from the updates from Falls Church which are occurring more often.

What does bloodbath mean?

A devastating result, essentially.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bruh... If this is true... I wish
https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1455555600990056452?s=20

Where are the numbers coming from on this?

People are forgetting that the dynamics of early voting are not necessarily going to be 2020-like ad infinitum.

Historically early votes were much less lopsided. 2020 will probably be an aberration driven by Trump sowing doubt in vote-by-mail and regular early voting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bruh... If this is true... I wish
https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1455555600990056452?s=20

Source: Someones A**

Twitter bio:

Conservative Christian. Love @BeccaRyun. Dad of 4. Jayhawk. CEO @AM_National, @VoterGravity
. @theamgreatness Senior Fellow.

I think that's someone we could call a...non-swing voter.