Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the "early vote" exceed 2017 by quite a bit too? That always skews massively to Democrats. This election could likely have been over for Youngkin before the real election ever begun.

The early vote was up but less skewed towards Ds than in 2020. Early votes actually aren't historically massively pro-Dem. Absentee ballots were even once upon a time lean Republican (though I understand absentees=/=early votes).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

*NSW
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455606297647190024?s=20

Based

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

*NSW
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455606297647190024?s=20

Where the data is coming from. It seems like a random account with 870 followers.

It's a meme

Well, memes are good. Thanks for posting!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hot take; TMac wins Falls Church 😤😤

Now now, that's pretty bold. Here's an even bolder take: TMac wins Arlington and Alexandria.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hot take; TMac wins Falls Church 😤😤

Now now, that's pretty bold. Here's an even bolder take: TMac wins Arlington and Alexandria.

Hotter take: Youngkin wins Lee County.

Hottest possible take: TMac wins Petersburg

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Never change, Atlas lol.

To sum up - is it fair to say there are positives so far for both sides regarding turnout and there are no meaningful takeaways so far?

This is correct.  Basically we will know almost nothing useful until actual results start coming in.

We know that the enthusiasm gap/Dems aren't going to turnout narrative was BUNK.

It was bunk that was thrown about by the media to justify their particular view of why this was a horse-race, which is good for ratings.
Ds were probably always going to turn out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another good sign for African American turnout.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455617366843404289?s=20

So Youngkin lives in Sussex County? Can we expect a small boost for him there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another good sign for African American turnout.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455617366843404289?s=20

So Youngkin lives in Sussex County? Can we expect a small boost for him there?

Given that Youngkin centered his campaign around a racist dog whistle (CRT), probably not.

Also, what do you mean?  Youngkin lives in Great Falls, the wealthiest zip code in the state.

Ah, that's it.
I was misled by the tweet's specific word choices.
Glad that got cleared up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How soon till polls close?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How soon till polls close?

3 hours, 25 minutes

Thanks for the info good Sir.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The coal mines don’t close until later in the day. Except those Buchanan numbers to surge as the coal miners take off their hard hats and replace them with MAGA hats.

The memes don't get any better than this, folks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The coal mines don’t close until later in the day. Except those Buchanan numbers to surge as the coal miners take off their hard hats and replace them with MAGA hats.

Best post in this 150 page thread

I unrecommended it so that I could recommend it twice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

Why does the media in the UK like talking about London? In Japan, about Tokyo? In France, about Paris? etc.
Virginia is close to the heart of power, of course it gets a lot of media coverage.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

It's not.

Whether or not you (and NSV) believe the race is competitive, most of the world believes that it is, and that's what generates the attention.

Also a tip: you don't need to keep responding that way about the competitiveness of the race.  You've made your opinion extremely clear by now.

Fair point, whatever the truth is about VA elections, if people perceive them to be competitive, they'll treat them as such.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I think the naunce was that if turnout was very low, that'd be good for Dems as it would mean the GOP base wouldn't turn out *as much*, and if turnout was very high, that's be good for Dems as well as it means that the state's natural D lean is less likely to be overruled by differential turnout (see: AL-SEN 2017).
But some of that naunce can be lost in all the excitement and glee and salivation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

YoungKING indeed is no republican at all, but a filthy FEDERALIST —an Emperor —an unprincipled banditti of Britiſh ſpeculators —the hireling tool and emiſſary of his majesty king George the 3d.

Virginia Democrats: turn out, turn out, and ſave your country from ruin! Down the the Tories, down with the Britiſh faction!

Only by voting for McAuliffe can you defend the Glorious Revolution!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I'm really surprised you're expecting T-Mac winning by that much.

I think Del Tachi is more bullish on T-Mac than NSV is at this point (in terms of predicted margin).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully we can call Youngkin , YoungKing after tonight

Cringe

BRTD makes king jokes all the time , so why can’t I . Especially since it rhymes here 

Meme all you like. Memes are an innate part of the joy of politics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any updates from Buchanan?  Feels like it's the only county where turnout is actually down.

Not to be morbid but haven't some of the rural SW counties been hit really hard by COVID? There may just be fewer people around to vote..

This is an unfortunate but still very possible explanation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rain clearing out of NoVA just in time for the afternoon rush of TMac soccer moms.

One of the pleasures of Atlas is seeing memes connect across spans of 4 years or more.

Atlas is the best place to follow elections. Change my mind.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I simply cannot see a scenario where the GOP wins this race unless turnout in northern VA is extremely low. Republicans have done nothing over the last year to show us they want to let go of Trump era politics.

Youngkin looks like such a smug rich white d-bag I associate with suburban Republicans so I fear he may connect with people like Trump didn't.

So in other words, Youngkin is more a 2012 Romney than a Trump?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rain clearing out of NoVA just in time for the afternoon rush of TMac soccer moms.

One of the pleasures of Atlas is seeing memes connect across spans of 4 years or more.

i just realized i have been on this site for over 4 years now. wow

You thought that was a lot? Try six and a half years...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where are the Exit Polls?

Not everyone has voted yet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing is for sure, high turnout in every election is the new normal.

Welcome to the 1890s!

I swear the number of similarities between our own time and the 1890s (including electoral politics) is both incredibly interesting and incredibly depressing.

The polarization sure fits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where are the Exit Polls?

Not everyone has voted yet.

Doesn't matter! VA Exits usually come out at 5pm ET!

Ah. If so, pardon my ignorance.