Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Duke of York]

This seems bad …

way too early to make any sort of prediction.

[Duke of York]

The vote counted is mostly from Brasilia lol. Relax people

Id have thought Brasilia would be for Lula.

[Duke of York]

The good news for Bolsonaro is that outside of DF he is slightly ahead.  He is outperforming so far but it is still way too early.

The polls seems like they were off and Lula isn't going to win outright.

[Duke of York]

So don't freak out yet is the message I'm getting? Cos when I saw Bolonaro ahead I almost died

yes it is way too early to make any predictions

[Duke of York]

So don't freak out yet is the message I'm getting? Cos when I saw Bolonaro ahead I almost died

Do not worry.  Lula will win.  It is a matter of in which round.

I hope its first round because if he doesn't things could get very ugly over the next month.

[Duke of York]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

where? Brasilia?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

I hope this comes to pass

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

There was no exit polls.

why would a reputable source like them say that then?

[Duke of York]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

where? Brasilia?

Yeah

That can't be a good sign for Bolsonaro right?

[Duke of York]

Still narrow Bolsonaro lead in the non-DF count.

From what I can tell most of the votes in so far are from the Northwest, where Bolsonaro was expected to win anyway. If the Southeast comes in hot for Lula then a slight overperformance here won't matter.

Still, if I had to make a bet just based on these results I'd guess Lula doesn't win the first round.

that's my guess as well.

[Duke of York]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

[Duke of York]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

in first or second round?

[Duke of York]

The count has completely stopped updating in the last 10 minutes.  What is going on here. ...

That can't be a good sign.

[Duke of York]

🚨

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1576680685922037760

well thats some good news.

This is in Sao Paulo for those wondering

[Duke of York]

It is still too early to say if is going to be a runoff?

yes

[Duke of York]

Gomes is underperforming pre-election polls.  This could be a last-minute Gomes->Lula tactical voting or as more Left-friendly areas come in his vote share will rise.

I hope so and Lula wins outright.

[Duke of York]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

Why must you always doom?

[Duke of York]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

As much as I want Bolsonaro to win he will not.

what makes you say that?

[Duke of York]

States with over 60% of votes counted:

Distrito Federal (92%): Lula +6.79 from Haddad 2R
Espirito Santo (89%): Lula +3.27
Mato Grosso do Sul (84%): Lula +3.09
Tocantins (76%): Lula -1.79
Paraná (65%): Lula +3.56

So if these results hold we are looking for Lula around 48% or so nationwide.

so a runoff is likely.

[Duke of York]

Oh great. Who told SL about this thread?

Huh?

[Duke of York]

44.17% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 23,591,925 (46.84%)
LULA- 22,324,551 (44.32%)

From The Guardian map it looks like Lula is gaining in the Amazon. At this rate he might win it off the backs of the indigenous folks.

There is still a large portion of Lula's strongholds to come in. Its still possible he wins outright.

[Duke of York]

44.17% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 23,591,925 (46.84%)
LULA- 22,324,551 (44.32%)

From The Guardian map it looks like Lula is gaining in the Amazon. At this rate he might win it off the backs of the indigenous folks.

you think he can avoid a runoff?

[Duke of York]

46,46% counted

Bolsonaro 46,69%
Lula 44,47%

Lula will win since it’s mostly Northeastern vote to come in but I don’t think it will reach 50% and Bolsonaro won’t fall below 40% like polls pointed. Bolsonaro candidates (ex: Damares in DF senate wasn’t expected to win) overperformance is also something that hints Bolsonaro doing better than expected as well.

Could end up being something around Lula 48% and Bolsonaro 42% maybe, more or less. So it’s going to a runoff.

if it goes to runoff I expect Lula to win but it will be very ugly.

[Duke of York]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

At 52% of the vote counted  Bolsonaro is at 46.3% which is a bit lower than I had guessed.  My next guess is that based on historical patterns he will be at 43.3% at the end.

If so it should be

Lula         48.0%
Bolsonaro 43.3%

For first round

I hope there is no runoff but it seems unlikely at this point.

[Duke of York]

54.59% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 29,079,829 (46.31%)
LULA- 28,175,139 (44.87%)

Ballsonaro lead down to ~4% in Amazonas with 64.3% in. Probably on track to win at this rate but still too early.

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

The preservation of (what is left of) the Amazon rainforest is a higher priority to me in this election than their stances on Ukraine in any case.  

The Amazon issue is so important that this is the first election I've ever supported a socialist, and not just weakly a la 'lesser of two evils' but strongly.

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula seem to care about Ukraine very much. And why should they? They're not in NATO and it's on the other side of the planet. Brazil has about 1,000 bigger fish to fry.

1,000 bigger forests to fry.

who is on track to win? and win without a runoff?