Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Duke of York]

Since when was Beshear dinged for his handling of COVID? He consistently had high approvals throughout the peak...

He shut down the state.

I didn't;t like shut downs either. I thought they were an over reaction but its been two years. Let it go.

[Duke of York]

All these are Lean R until Sept when we see a poll after Docugate

No one is going to casting a ballot for governor based on Docugate.

[Duke of York]

there's no way he is going to win by that much

Imagine if he does though, imagine! Kentucky bellwether, manifest it!

It would definitely be impressive. We can only hope.

Just wait for Oct we should know if there is an Impeachment inquiry Docugate isn't over Hillary wasn't exhonerated she was admonished by FBI and Lost Biden hasn't been fully Investigation yet

An Impeachment inquiry by Oct will hinder Beshear chances I am not rooting for RS but we all know what happened to Strickland and Ryan and TMac in Appalachian when they had early leads they Lost

We gotta hear from Trafalgar if there is uniform between Trafalgar and rest of polls they are right but if Trafalgar is way off like PA S then they are Wrong but they are off in blue not red states

Very few are going to be casting a ballot for governor based on Docugate. An impeachment over this would only hurt Republicans.

Trafalgar is a pollster that makes up their their numbers and only happens to be right on occasion.

[Duke of York]

Do Democrats have a chance to win any other statewide officers other than Governor?

[Duke of York]

cameron picked his running mate today: state senator robby mills

He managed to pick the worst running mate possible.

I think a lot of people are just going to stay home on Election Day.

What makes him so bad?

If a lot of people don’t vote maybe that could help other Democrats win other statewide elections.

[Duke of York]

There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Do they though? We're only 2 months out at this point, months removed from the primary, and Cameron has done pretty much nothing to improve his position. He kind of wasted the summer. If he's just going to be talking about culture wars for the next 60 days...

Again, Cameron knows what his base wants. He'll deliver it, and they'll vote for him. Beshear is an underdog.

Yet polling isn't showing that. You have such a pessimistic attitude.

[Duke of York]

If Beshear wins is there any chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

[Duke of York]

KY Republicans really took the state for granted and thought federal elections from Kentucky would translate to a statewide win, with minimal work or effort, and an elections savant knows that Kentuckians love their Bill Clinton type Democrats. The entire GOP ticket is really bad except for Michael Adams who I really think deserves re-election as SOS.

Is there a chance Democrats could win any other statewide offices?

[Duke of York]

i saw one (1) cameron sign on southern parkway (a deep blue stronghold in louisville) a few weeks ago so therefore beshear is DONE.

yard signs can be fairly telling, though its mostly Beshear who seems to be garnering strong support.

No they don’t. Signs don’t vote.

[Duke of York]

In KY I am definitly waiting on the Louisville Courier-Journal Mason-Dixon Poll. Beshear ain't winning by 16 Points like the Emerson Poll is suggesting.

Weird thing about this is Emerson usually leans pretty R.

I would hesitate to project from LA to KY or vice versa given recent history, including the abortion votes in each state which were dramatically different.  I would say tonight increases the probability of a Beshear collapse in EKY, but a lot of that was already baked in.

No it doesn't. The dynamics of the elections are completely different. what happened in Louisiana has zero bearing on Kentucky. This race was always going to be a flip and turnout was awful.Your not going to see that in Kentucky.

[Duke of York]

Approval rating is utterly meaningless and a completely shocking result.

[Duke of York]

The Lexington Herald interviewed some strategists and politicians that seem to think there is some late momentum for Cameron over the last week or so, citing Kentucky is difficult to predict and a lot of conservatives don't finalize their decision until late in the season.

That doesn't surprise me. And I'm not saying that just because I'm a "doomer", but rather because of both the Louisiana results and the fact that partisanship often kicks in in red states. I'm sticking with my prediction of Beshear +2, but I would not be that surprised to see him lose.

You always doom. If Beshear loses it will prove approval rating means nothing.

Louisiana has nothing to do with this election. Democrats didn’t even try there.

[Duke of York]

Ds are looking for the sweeper

Are you predicting Beshear wins?