2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

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Ryan Costello is running.

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Filing deadline was a few days ago in Pennsylvania.  Obviously there was some confusion caused by the redistricting (www.politics1.com still hasn't provided a final update or moved the candidates who switched districts into their correct districts) so it took awhile (for me at least) to get final information.

Democrats have a full slate while Republicans have candidates in 17/18 districts.  They ended up getting candidates in both of the Philadelphia districts (and the third district that tips into Philadelphia) but they didn't get a candidate in the Pittsburgh based 18th district.  The woman who had the affair with Tim Murphy who was going to run for the Republicans in that district never filed in the end.

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Latest filing deadlines:  Democrats have a full slate in South Carolina and Virginia.

Republicans have a full slate in South Carolina (they have a candidate against Jim Clyburn) and have 10/11 candidates in Virginia having not fielded a challenger to Bobby Scott.

http://www.politics1.com/sc.htm
http://www.politics1.com/va.htm

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As I pointed out before, there is a lot of possible additional support for the Congressional Democratic candidates in Texas.  While Hillary Clinton lost Texas 52-43% to Donald Trump, the Congressional Democrats lost in aggregate 57-39% whereas they lost 61-34% in 2014.  No doubt the number of Texas districts where the Democrats did not run a candidate in 2016 (especially this one) skews the numbers somewhat, but I think there is no question the Democrats can still gain significant votes in 2018 in Texas.

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https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/999373426795204630

Scandal watch!

Any good dem recruit in this district?

Nah the dems did a convention and proceeded to nominate someone with skeletons. That said, if the seat becomes open, I suspect that nominee gets dropped like a rock in favor of Perrellio.

They won’t do that, lol. The Democrats already held their caucuses and nominated their candidate, they could ask her to step aside, but she won’t.

I agree that Cockburn wouldn't drop out; she's an anti-Semitic bigot, so clearly rationale thought isn't her strong suite.

Is she really anti-semitic, or just critical of Israel?

I'm genuinely curious.

No, she wrote a book critical of America’s foreign policy towards Israel, that some anti-semitists latched on, but she herself isn’t anti-Semitic. The whole thing is blown out of proportion, the case against her is even more tenuous than against Scott Wallace in PA-01.

I propose a common sense reaction: if a Republican tells you something, and you have no evidence either way, believe the opposite.

Leslie Cockburn is also the mother of A-List actress Olivia Wilde, so she should have no trouble raising significant amounts of money.

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https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

That’s great that these two candidates are getting some help, but I’m still waiting on NE-02.

FWIW the CPC has endorsed Kara Eastman so I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC adds her to the red to blue list soon.

Although they are Canadian, I can understand why the Communist Party of Canada would do that.  (sorry)

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These are the Democrats who have out-raised Republicans in Republican held districts.  This is for total fundraising this cycle, not just the second quarter.

Outraised incumbents:
1.California 4, Tom McClintock, $1,186,099, Jessica Morse, 1,455,419
2.California 25,Steve Knight, 1,695,794, Katie Hill, 2,442,041
3.California 48, Dana Rohrabacher, 1,746,614, Harley Rouda, 2,686,620
4.California 50, Duncan Hunter, 848,389, Ammar Campa Nijjar, 1,063,403
5.Iowa 1, Rod Blum, 1,780,866, Abby Finkenauer, 1,861,542
6.Iowa 4, Steve King, 506,775, J.D Scholten, 755,973
7.Michigan 8, Mike Bishop, 2,142,700, Elissa Slotkin, 2,847,085
8.Minnesota 2, Jason Lewis, 1,808,699, Angie Craig, 2,109,198
9.New Jersey 7, Leonard Lance, 1,534,858, Tom Malinowski, 2,311,646
10.New York 11, Dan Donovan, 1,801,444, Max Rose, 1,933,436
11.New York 19, John Faso, 2,297,980, Antonio Delgado, 2,702,347
12.North Carolina 13, Ted Budd, 1,154,387, Kathy Manning, 1,932,258
13.Ohio 1, Steve Chabot, 958,196, Aftab Pureval, 1,569,432
14.Ohio 7, Bob Gibbs, 749,683, Ken Harbaugh, 1,688,731
15.Pennsylvania 1, Brian Fitzpatrick, 2,313,762, Scott Wallace, 5,379,968
16.Texas 7, John Culberson, 2,007,183, LIzzie Fletcher, 2,312,615
17.Texas 31, John Carter, 996,707, Mary Jennings Hegar, 1,612,439
18.Virginia 7, Dave Brat, 1,319,825, Abigail Spanberger, 1,347,694
19.Wisconsin 6, Glenn Grothman, 1,227,107, Dan Kohl, 1,643,006

These are the Republican open districts but only in the states that have held primaries
(States that haven't yet held primaries: Alaska, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming)
1.California 39, Young Kim, $1,278,531, Gil Cisneros, 5,499,829
2.California 49, Diane Harkey, 702,043, Mike Levin, 2,577,583
3.New Jersey 2, Seth Grossman, 87,842, Jeff Van Drew, 1,043,005
4.New Jersey 11, Jay Weber, 574,410, Mikie Sherrill, 4,200,452
5.New Mexico 2, Yvette Herrell, 512,610, Xochitl Torres-Small, 928,419
6.North Carolina 9, Mark Harris, 922,855, Dan McCready, 2,662,380
7.Pennsylvania 5, Pearl Kim, 350,171, Mary Gay Scanlon, 1,048,249
8.Pennsylvania 6, Greg McCauley, 174,293, Chrissy Houlahan, 2,805,743
9.Pennsylvania 7, Marty Nothstein, 525,853, Susan Wild, 1,099,465
10.South Carolina 1, Katie Arrington, 662,026, Joe Cunningham, 789,761
11.Texas 6, Ron Wright, 313,176, Jana Lynne Sanchez, 358,960
12.Texas 21, Chip Roy, 934,789, Joseph Kopser, 1,550,139
13.Virginia 5, Denver Riggleman, 217,443, Leslie Cockburn, 1,284,034 (Riggleman is a late entrant having replaced the Republican incumbent who stepped down after the close of candidate filing)

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28 Democrats in those 32 districts have raised over $1 million.  These are other Democrats in states that have held primaries who have raised over $1 million. (I also left out the Georgia 7th district)

Unfortunately opensecrets.org has a problem transitioning from Special Elections, so I don't know what's gone on in any district that has held a special election this cycle.

1.California 10, Jeff Denham, $3,444,695, Josh Harder, 2,519,983
2.California 21, David Valadao, 2,300,633, T.J Cox, 1,320,049
3.California 32, Devin Nunes, 7,379,364, Andrew Janz, 2,847,975
4.California 45, Mimi Walters, 2,926,804, Katie Porter, 2,067,985
5.Colorado 6, Mike Coffman, 2,362,516, Jason Crow, 2,255,792
6.Illinois 6, Pete Roskam, 4,389,553, Sean Casten, 2,015,336
7.Illinois 12, Mike Bost, 1,903,753, Brandon Kelly, 1,778,360
8.Illinois 13, Rodney Davis, 2,368,640, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, 1,341,611
9.Illinois 14, Randy Hultgren, 1,432,423, Lauren Underwood, 1,127,586
10.Indiana 2, Jackie Walorski, 2,056,968, Mel Hall, 1,417,941
11.Indiana 9, Trey Hollingsworth, 1,116,720, Liz Watson, 1,059,037
12.Iowa, 3, David Young, 1,704,881, Cindy Axne, 1,069,118
13.Kentucky 6, Andy Barr, 3,147,866, Amy McGrath, 3,017,831
14.Maine 1, Bruce Poliquin, 2,998,396, Jared Golden, 1,174,196
15.New Jersey 3, Tom McCarthur, 2,346,449, Andy Kim, 2,154,107
16.New York 1, Lee Zeldin, 3,027,393, Perry Gershon, 2,192,508
17.New York 22, Claudia Tenney, 1,936,988, Anthony Brindisi, 1,934,672
18.Ohio 14, David Joyce, 1,557,010, Betsy Rader, 1,028,633
19.Texas 23, Will Hurd, 3,049,456, Gina Ortiz-Jones, 2,251,293
20.Texas 32, Pete Sessions, 2,744,974, Colin Allred, 1,912,400
21.Utah 4, Mia Love, 3,294,307, Ben McAdams, 1,677,141
22.Virginia 2, Scott Taylor, 2,716,309, Elaine Luria, 1,318,067
23.Virginia 10, Barbara Comstock, 3,798,392, Jennifer Wexton, 1,929,620
  
So, this is a total of 51 Democrats who have raised over $1,000,000 excluding the states where the primaries have not yet been held.  (Except for Michigan 8, Minnesota 2 and Wisconsin 6 where the Democratic nominee seems to be pretty certain.)

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28 Democrats in those 32 districts have raised over $1 million.  These are other Democrats in states that have held primaries who have raised over $1 million. (I also left out the Georgia 7th district)

Unfortunately opensecrets.org has a problem transitioning from Special Elections, so I don't know what's gone on in any district that has held a special election this cycle.

1.California 10, Jeff Denham, $3,444,695, Josh Harder, 2,519,983
2.California 21, David Valadao, 2,300,633, T.J Cox, 1,320,049
3.California 32, Devin Nunes, 7,379,364, Andrew Janz, 2,847,975
4.California 45, Mimi Walters, 2,926,804, Katie Porter, 2,067,985
5.Colorado 6, Mike Coffman, 2,362,516, Jason Crow, 2,255,792
6.Illinois 6, Pete Roskam, 4,389,553, Sean Casten, 2,015,336
7.Illinois 12, Mike Bost, 1,903,753, Brandon Kelly, 1,778,360
8.Illinois 13, Rodney Davis, 2,368,640, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, 1,341,611
9.Illinois 14, Randy Hultgren, 1,432,423, Lauren Underwood, 1,127,586
10.Indiana 2, Jackie Walorski, 2,056,968, Mel Hall, 1,417,941
11.Indiana 9, Trey Hollingsworth, 1,116,720, Liz Watson, 1,059,037
12.Iowa, 3, David Young, 1,704,881, Cindy Axne, 1,069,118
13.Kentucky 6, Andy Barr, 3,147,866, Amy McGrath, 3,017,831
14.Maine 1, Bruce Poliquin, 2,998,396, Jared Golden, 1,174,196
15.New Jersey 3, Tom McCarthur, 2,346,449, Andy Kim, 2,154,107
16.New York 1, Lee Zeldin, 3,027,393, Perry Gershon, 2,192,508
17.New York 22, Claudia Tenney, 1,936,988, Anthony Brindisi, 1,934,672
18.Ohio 14, David Joyce, 1,557,010, Betsy Rader, 1,028,633
19.Texas 23, Will Hurd, 3,049,456, Gina Ortiz-Jones, 2,251,293
20.Texas 32, Pete Sessions, 2,744,974, Colin Allred, 1,912,400
21.Utah 4, Mia Love, 3,294,307, Ben McAdams, 1,677,141
22.Virginia 2, Scott Taylor, 2,716,309, Elaine Luria, 1,318,067
23.Virginia 10, Barbara Comstock, 3,798,392, Jennifer Wexton, 1,929,620
  
So, this is a total of 51 Democrats who have raised over $1,000,000 excluding the states where the primaries have not yet been held.  (Except for Michigan 8, Minnesota 2 and Wisconsin 6 where the Democratic nominee seems to be pretty certain.)

D@mnit, he needed to try harder.

Denham knows how to bring home the bacon.

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According to www.politics1.com, the Democrats now have a candidate in Louisiana-5 (today is the filing deadline.)

District 5:
Ralph Abraham (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Billy Burkette (I) - Choctaw Tribal Council Chair/Chief of Police, Businessman & '16 Candidate
Jessee Fleenor (D) - Farmer
Kyle Randol (Libertarian) - Legal Assistant

http://www.politics1.com/la.htm

So, this means the Democrats will be running 432 candidates in 2018.

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According to www.politics1.com, the Democrats now have a candidate in Louisiana-5 (today is the filing deadline.)

District 5:
Ralph Abraham (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Billy Burkette (I) - Choctaw Tribal Council Chair/Chief of Police, Businessman & '16 Candidate
Jessee Fleenor (D) - Farmer
Kyle Randol (Libertarian) - Legal Assistant

http://www.politics1.com/la.htm

So, this means the Democrats will be running 432 candidates in 2018.

What are the districts where they have no candidate?

Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

Should note that GA-8 is only uncontested because Fred Swann dropped out to run for Agriculture Commissioner (which would've been left uncontested itself had Swann stayed put).

MI-1 is uncontested because our only primary candidate got DQ'd from being on the ballot due to signature issues, but he'll get the nomination via write-in most likely.

And California-8 is uncontested because no Democrat made the top two positions.  I've not read this anywhere, but it wouldn't surprise me if North Carolina-3 is uncontested because the Democrats de-facto supported maverick Republican Walter Jones against his latest establishment Republican primary challenger.

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Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

Might be worth adding up the vote deficit for Republicans in those districts from, maybe, 2016, or the last election they ran in (this redistricting cycle) to see what # of votes they would have been expected to get. I imagine a decent chunk of those are probably absurdly Democratic districts where the number of votes they would have added to the R's national PV share wouldn't have been much.

I could see the unopposed districts gap becoming a talking point if Dems win the PV by a decent margin but still lose the chamber, even though it wouldn't have that much of an impact for the reason you stated.

It also wouldn't have any impact on polling, since there's nothing stopping someone in AL-07 or PA-18 from answering generic R, and vice versa.

One way you could deal with that is to impute say 20% of the vote for any district with no Republican candidate.  In many cases, where there is no major party candidate in a district, the votes for a third party candidate (or several third party candidates) increase significantly.  So, if the total votes in a district were 225,000 and the Democrat received 200,000, you could impute the total votes in the district to 250,000 and give the imaginary Republican 50,000 (with a small vote remaining for the 3rd parties).  As long as it's made clear that the aggregate total there is based on imputed numbers and is not the actual aggregate totals I don't see a problem with it.

Of course, you could also base it on the percentage of vote that the Republican candidate usually receives in the district subtracted by a small percentage should the Democratic wave materialize, but that takes more work.

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Has a member of MS-13 even set foot in Comstock's district?

The gang is an issue here in the DC area, but like Gillespie before her is ridiculously hyping it up to the point where everyone sees through it.

Since when does Mississippi have 13 or more Representatives?

That's my joke!

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Likely one less Democratic candidate:

‘I hate this county.’ Democratic House candidate convicted of DUI unloads on cops

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/hate-this-county-democratic-house-candidate-convicted-dui-unloads-cops/T9B8qfyAjX7NnI725UV2VP/

For the posters on another thread, I don't think it's a surprise that the Democratic candidate in question here is Steven Foster.  And to think, this man has a medical degree.

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In terms of House recruitment, 73 2016 major party nominees ran again for nominations this cycle.  Of the 67 who have run in primaries so far this time, 31 have been renominated, 25 Republicans and 6 Democrats.  This includes 2016 defeated incumbents Cresent Hardy who won in Nevada and Brad Ashford who lost in Nebraska.

There are still 5 2016 nominees up for primaries in Florida and one in Arizona.

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R
Safe D
NJ-2(OPEN)
Likely D
PA-17(Rothfus)
VA-10(Comstock)
Leans D
AZ-2
CA-49
FL-27
MI-11
PA-7
Tilts D
CA-25
CO-6
IA-1(Blum)
KS-2
KY-6
MN-2
NY-22
NC-9
VA-7
TX-23
WA-8
PTU
CA-10
CA-45
CA-48
IL-6
IL-12
IA-3
KS-3
ME-2
MI-8
MN-3
NJ-3
NY-19
PA-1
TX-7
TX-32
VA-2
WV-3
Tilts R
GA-6
IL-14
NE-2
NY-24
NC-13
WA-5
WI-1
Leans R
AR-2
FL-26
GA-7
IN-2
MO-2
NM-2
OH-1
PA-10
PA-16
SC-1
Likely R
AK-AL
AZ-6
CO-3
FL-6
FL-15
FL-16
FL-25
IN-2
KS-4
MI-1
MI-6
MT-AL
NV-2
NY-1
NY-11
NY-21
NY-27
NC-2
OH-7
OH-10
OH-14
OK-5
TX-6
TX-21
TX-31
VA-5
WI-8
D Seats
Likely D
FL-7
MN-7
NV-4
NJ-5
PA-8
Leans D
AZ-1
NH-1
Tilts D
MN-1
PTU
MN-8
Safe R

PA-14

I audited this.  Indiana-2(nd) is in twice.  I assume one of them is meant to be Indiana-9.

There are a five in here I don't think are competitive: Kansas City-4, Nevada-2, New York-21, New York-27 (depends on if the Republicans can name a replacement candidate or not), Wisconsin-8 (just because Beau Liegeois is a cool name doesn't make him competitive )

There are 24 not on here though that I think should be. Some of them are marginals like the 5 I don't think should be on here, but others I think should definitely be on here.

Those that should be on here, in my opinion (in no order)
1.Utah-3, Ben McAdams
2.Michigan-7, Gretchen Driskell
3.Washington-3, Carolyn Long
4.Ohio-12, Danny O'Connor (final results should have Balderson narrowly winning the Special)
5.Illinois-13, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
6.Pennsylvania-5, Mary Gay Scanlon (or Pennsylvania 4, Madeline Dean)
7.Pennsylvania-6, Chrissy Houlahan (both Pennsylvania 5 and 6 should be at least lean D)
8.California-39, Gil Cisneros (should be at least lean D)
9.New Jersey-7, Tom Malinowski
10.New Jersey-11, Mikie Sherrill (should be at least lean D)

Others I consider competitive (in no order)
1.Florida-18
2.North Carolina-7, Kyle Horton
3.North Carolina-8, Frank McNeill
4.Texas-2, Todd Litton
5.Texas-22, Sri Preston Kulkarni
6.West Virginia-2, Talley Sergent
7.Alabama-5, Peter Joffrion
8.Pennsylvania-9, Denny Wolff
9.California-4, Jessica Morse
10.California-22, Andrew Janz
11.California-25, T.J Cox
12.Wisconsin-6, Dan Kohl
13.North Dakota-AL, Mac Schneider
14.South Dakota-AL, Tim Bjorkman