2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

AZ-05 can't be right. What did you mean?

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1030533475508600832

AZ-05: Leans Dem
CA-48: Toss Up
CA-49: Tilts Dem
CO-06: Toss Up
FL-16: Likely Rep
FL-18: Likely Rep
IL-06: Toss Up
IL-12: Titls Rep
IL-13: Leans Rep
IA-03: Tilts Rep
IA-04: Likely Rep
KS-02: Tilts Rep
KS-03: Tilts Rep
MI-08: Tilts Rep
MN-03: Tilts Rep
NE-02: Leans Rep
NJ-03: Tilts Rep
NY-19: Toss Up
NY-22: Toss Up
NC-02: Likely Rep
NC-13: Leans Rep
OH-01: Leans Rep
PA-16: Likely Rep
PA-17: Leans Dem
TX-23: Tilts Rep
TX-32: Likely Rep
VA-02: Leans Rep
VA-07: Tilts Rep
VA-10: Titls Dem
WA-03: Likely Rep
WA-05: Leans Rep
WV-03: Leans Rep

Bolded are the two seats the moved towards the Republicans

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1030533475508600832

[...]

VA-10: Titls Dem

[...]

 

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1030533475508600832

[...]

VA-10: Titls Dem

[...]

 

At least they're finally acknowledging she's an underdog. Unlike a certain someone that they all still insist is in a pure toss up race.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1030533475508600832

[...]

VA-10: Titls Dem

[...]

 

At least they're finally acknowledging she's an underdog. Unlike a certain someone that they all still insist is in a pure toss up race.

Its still poor, and speaks to the pundits being too R friendly this year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

R
Safe D
NJ-2(OPEN)
Likely D
PA-17(Rothfus)
VA-10(Comstock)
Leans D
AZ-2
CA-49
FL-27
MI-11
PA-7
Tilts D
CA-25
CO-6
IA-1(Blum)
KS-2
KY-6
MN-2
NY-22
NC-9
VA-7
TX-23
WA-8
PTU
CA-10
CA-45
CA-48
IL-6
IL-12
IA-3
KS-3
ME-2
MI-8
MN-3
NJ-3
NY-19
PA-1
TX-7
TX-32
VA-2
WV-3
Tilts R
GA-6
IL-14
NE-2
NY-24
NC-13
WA-5
WI-1
Leans R
AR-2
FL-26
GA-7
IN-2
MO-2
NM-2
OH-1
PA-10
PA-16
SC-1
Likely R
AK-AL
AZ-6
CO-3
FL-6
FL-15
FL-16
FL-25
IN-2
KS-4
MI-1
MI-6
MT-AL
NV-2
NY-1
NY-11
NY-21
NY-27
NC-2
OH-7
OH-10
OH-14
OK-5
TX-6
TX-21
TX-31
VA-5
WI-8
D Seats
Likely D
FL-7
MN-7
NV-4
NJ-5
PA-8
Leans D
AZ-1
NH-1
Tilts D
MN-1
PTU
MN-8
Safe R

PA-14

[136or142]

R
Safe D
NJ-2(OPEN)
Likely D
PA-17(Rothfus)
VA-10(Comstock)
Leans D
AZ-2
CA-49
FL-27
MI-11
PA-7
Tilts D
CA-25
CO-6
IA-1(Blum)
KS-2
KY-6
MN-2
NY-22
NC-9
VA-7
TX-23
WA-8
PTU
CA-10
CA-45
CA-48
IL-6
IL-12
IA-3
KS-3
ME-2
MI-8
MN-3
NJ-3
NY-19
PA-1
TX-7
TX-32
VA-2
WV-3
Tilts R
GA-6
IL-14
NE-2
NY-24
NC-13
WA-5
WI-1
Leans R
AR-2
FL-26
GA-7
IN-2
MO-2
NM-2
OH-1
PA-10
PA-16
SC-1
Likely R
AK-AL
AZ-6
CO-3
FL-6
FL-15
FL-16
FL-25
IN-2
KS-4
MI-1
MI-6
MT-AL
NV-2
NY-1
NY-11
NY-21
NY-27
NC-2
OH-7
OH-10
OH-14
OK-5
TX-6
TX-21
TX-31
VA-5
WI-8
D Seats
Likely D
FL-7
MN-7
NV-4
NJ-5
PA-8
Leans D
AZ-1
NH-1
Tilts D
MN-1
PTU
MN-8
Safe R

PA-14

I audited this.  Indiana-2(nd) is in twice.  I assume one of them is meant to be Indiana-9.

There are a five in here I don't think are competitive: Kansas City-4, Nevada-2, New York-21, New York-27 (depends on if the Republicans can name a replacement candidate or not), Wisconsin-8 (just because Beau Liegeois is a cool name doesn't make him competitive )

There are 24 not on here though that I think should be. Some of them are marginals like the 5 I don't think should be on here, but others I think should definitely be on here.

Those that should be on here, in my opinion (in no order)
1.Utah-3, Ben McAdams
2.Michigan-7, Gretchen Driskell
3.Washington-3, Carolyn Long
4.Ohio-12, Danny O'Connor (final results should have Balderson narrowly winning the Special)
5.Illinois-13, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
6.Pennsylvania-5, Mary Gay Scanlon (or Pennsylvania 4, Madeline Dean)
7.Pennsylvania-6, Chrissy Houlahan (both Pennsylvania 5 and 6 should be at least lean D)
8.California-39, Gil Cisneros (should be at least lean D)
9.New Jersey-7, Tom Malinowski
10.New Jersey-11, Mikie Sherrill (should be at least lean D)

Others I consider competitive (in no order)
1.Florida-18
2.North Carolina-7, Kyle Horton
3.North Carolina-8, Frank McNeill
4.Texas-2, Todd Litton
5.Texas-22, Sri Preston Kulkarni
6.West Virginia-2, Talley Sergent
7.Alabama-5, Peter Joffrion
8.Pennsylvania-9, Denny Wolff
9.California-4, Jessica Morse
10.California-22, Andrew Janz
11.California-25, T.J Cox
12.Wisconsin-6, Dan Kohl
13.North Dakota-AL, Mac Schneider
14.South Dakota-AL, Tim Bjorkman

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's weird to me that the 538 forecast changes a bit everyday even though no new polls have been entered since Friday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's weird to me that the 538 forecast changes a bit everyday even though no new polls have been entered since Friday.

Perhaps the time factor?  Every day that goes by may slightly narrow the range of projected outcomes in some variables.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It's weird to me that the 538 forecast changes a bit everyday even though no new polls have been entered since Friday.

It is a Bayesian model that uses Monte Carlo simulation. This means that even if the data stays exactly the same, each time you re-run the model, the simulations will turn out slightly differently.

[Gustaf]

It's weird to me that the 538 forecast changes a bit everyday even though no new polls have been entered since Friday.

It is a Bayesian model that uses Monte Carlo simulation. This means that even if the data stays exactly the same, each time you re-run the model, the simulations will turn out slightly differently.

But do they re-run it without any new input? It would have to be time I Think.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It's weird to me that the 538 forecast changes a bit everyday even though no new polls have been entered since Friday.

It is a Bayesian model that uses Monte Carlo simulation. This means that even if the data stays exactly the same, each time you re-run the model, the simulations will turn out slightly differently.

But do they re-run it without any new input? It would have to be time I Think.

Ah, I see what you and GeorgiaModerate mean now. Yes, the fact that it is closer to the election could make a difference also. There is less uncertainty about future shifts in the race as you get closer to election day, and the model is supposed to incorporate the possibility of shifts in the national environment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1032035921733066753

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1032035921733066753

Daaaamn

SoCal, are you ready for Flawless Beautiful Ammar Campa-Najjar?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Per Dave Wasserman on Twitter, Cook is also moving Hunter's seat from Solid R to Lean R.  In addition, Cook is moving both Don Young's and Steve King's seats from Solid R to Likely R.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Per Dave Wasserman on Twitter, Cook is also moving Hunter's seat from Solid R to Lean R.  In addition, Cook is moving both Don Young's and Steve King's seats from Solid R to Likely R.

Forecasters are looking very wrong on the state of the House... GOP surging. They need to be moving seats right, not left.

Yeah, nothing like Trump's campaign manager and lawyer formally becoming convicts to shift the momentum to the GOP.

[KingSweden]

Per Dave Wasserman on Twitter, Cook is also moving Hunter's seat from Solid R to Lean R.  In addition, Cook is moving both Don Young's and Steve King's seats from Solid R to Likely R.

Forecasters are looking very wrong on the state of the House... GOP surging. They need to be moving seats right, not left.

We’ll find out soon who’s right between professional forecasters who do this for a living or a high school aged poster on a random forum (where he has somehow become the most unpopular member despite us having had actual pedos and Nazis).

[Doimper]

Please don't quote the poop poster, it makes his posts visible to people with enough common sense to have him on ignore.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Please don't quote the poop poster, it makes his posts visible to people with enough common sense to have him on ignore.

[LimoLiberal]

10 in favor of Democrats, 2 in favor of Republicans.

AK-AL: Safe R >> Likely R
CA-50: Safe R >> Lean R
GA-06: Lean R >> Likely R
IL-13: Likely R >> Lean R
IL-14: Likely R >> Lean R
NC-09: Tossup >> Lean D (!)
NJ-03: Lean R >> Tossup
OH-14: Likely R >> Lean R
TX-02: Safe R >> Likely R
TX-22: Safe R >> Likely R
WA-05: Tossup >> Lean R
WA-08: Tossup >> Lean D (!)

don't tell Greedo about Rossi...

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2018-house-update-12-ratings-changes/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

[NOVA Green]

10 in favor of Democrats, 2 in favor of Republicans.

AK-AL: Safe R >> Likely R
CA-50: Safe R >> Lean R
GA-06: Lean R >> Likely R
IL-13: Likely R >> Lean R
IL-14: Likely R >> Lean R
NC-09: Tossup >> Lean D (!)
NJ-03: Lean R >> Tossup
OH-14: Likely R >> Lean R
TX-02: Safe R >> Likely R
TX-22: Safe R >> Likely R
WA-05: Tossup >> Lean R
WA-08: Tossup >> Lean D (!)

don't tell Greedo about Rossi...

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2018-house-update-12-ratings-changes/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

Limo, keep posting links like this and keeping a slightly larger distance from "election analysis" and your Atlas street Cred rating will likely improve rapidly....

The details in your link to Sabato's site are the most interesting part of the post overall, and quite frankly he's one of the sharper Political Science Geeks that follows this stuff.

TY for sharing the link and opening a thread on this topic.

[wesmoorenerd]

N U T all around. Quality moves, including the two in favor of Republicans (both of which are definitely reasonable). I'm especially happy to see NC-09 moved to Lean D and TX-02 and TX-22 moved out of Safe.

[Xing]

WA-05 was a premature move anyway, WA-03 is more likely to flip. I highly doubt that TX-02 or TX-22 flip, but Likely R is reasonable, and I don't really disagree with any of these.

[Orser67]

NC-09: Tossup >> Lean D (!)

Yeah, wow. An open R+8 seat at Lean D.

[Politician]

Great ratings changes. Especially NJ-03 and GA-06.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

All of these make at least some sense.