2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/09/worst-most-intriguing-parts-secret-devin-nunes-tape/ That’s gotta change the race in CA22.

Yeah, it will make Republicans love him even more.

Does Janz have any shot? He has to I would think even in an R+8

He does, but polling has shown Nunes in the lead, and the district isnt the most elastic

And he handily won the jungle primary with 58%, IIRC.

[aaroncd107]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/09/worst-most-intriguing-parts-secret-devin-nunes-tape/ That’s gotta change the race in CA22.

Yeah, it will make Republicans love him even more.

Does Janz have any shot? He has to I would think even in an R+8

He does, but polling has shown Nunes in the lead, and the district isnt the most elastic

I’m no expert on Congressional strategy but it seems to me like this would be more of a reason for the DCCC/nationwide Dems to target this race. Is that a thing they do?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/09/worst-most-intriguing-parts-secret-devin-nunes-tape/ That’s gotta change the race in CA22.

Yeah, it will make Republicans love him even more.

Does Janz have any shot? He has to I would think even in an R+8

He does, but polling has shown Nunes in the lead, and the district isnt the most elastic

Replace blacks with Hispanics and lower the turnout even more because many of them aren't citizens. The district is then pretty much on par with your typical R-leaning race-polarized Deep South CD.

[Zaybay]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/09/worst-most-intriguing-parts-secret-devin-nunes-tape/ That’s gotta change the race in CA22.

Yeah, it will make Republicans love him even more.

Does Janz have any shot? He has to I would think even in an R+8

He does, but polling has shown Nunes in the lead, and the district isnt the most elastic

I’m no expert on Congressional strategy but it seems to me like this would be more of a reason for the DCCC/nationwide Dems to target this race. Is that a thing they do?

Most congressional strategists, on both sides, like to go after the ones they think they will win, rather than ones that they could win if effort is being put in. See the MT, KS, and SC special elections compared to the GA special election.

[Gass3268]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/09/worst-most-intriguing-parts-secret-devin-nunes-tape/ That’s gotta change the race in CA22.

Yeah, it will make Republicans love him even more.

Does Janz have any shot? He has to I would think even in an R+8

He does, but polling has shown Nunes in the lead, and the district isnt the most elastic

I’m no expert on Congressional strategy but it seems to me like this would be more of a reason for the DCCC/nationwide Dems to target this race. Is that a thing they do?

Most congressional strategists, on both sides, like to go after the ones they think they will win, rather than ones that they could win if effort is being put in. See the MT, KS, and SC special elections compared to the GA special election.

These quotes will hurt Cathy Mcmorris Rodgers more than Nunes.

[Virginiá]

A major issue with any attempt to oust Nunes is that his district just doesn't fit the profile of districts that are experiencing huge backlashes to Trump/Republicans. The Democratic base there depends on Latinos enough to where an upset is probably unlikely. That is one of the most stubborn demographics to both turn out to vote and to change the voting habits of. Not to mention the district is always whiter than it appears on paper, due to citizenship status and the much younger age of the Latino population in general. They just don't seem to care about Trump in a way that makes them want to vote more. This is at least part of if not the entire reason Latino-heavy districts with special elections or primaries post-2016 have not shown the same level of activity as other areas.

That being said, I like the idea that CMR's district could be worse off than Nunes. It's 89.7% white, and she just go some horrid numbers in her top-two primary, so that seems like it's more ripe for a win. This tape could help nudge it in that direction

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A major issue with any attempt to oust Nunes is that his district just doesn't fit the profile of districts that are experiencing huge backlashes to Trump/Republicans. The Democratic base there depends on Latinos enough to where an upset is probably unlikely. That is one of the most stubborn demographics to both turn out to vote and to change the voting habits of. Not to mention the district is always whiter than it appears on paper, due to citizenship status and the much younger age of the Latino population in general. They just don't seem to care about Trump in a way that makes them want to vote more. This is at least part of if not the entire reason Latino-heavy districts with special elections or primaries post-2016 have not shown the same level of activity as other areas.

That being said, I like the idea that CMR's district could be worse off than Nunes. It's 89.7% white, and she just go some horrid numbers in her top-two primary, so that seems like it's more ripe for a win. This tape could help nudge it in that direction

Was my Deep South analogy fitting?

[Zaybay]

A major issue with any attempt to oust Nunes is that his district just doesn't fit the profile of districts that are experiencing huge backlashes to Trump/Republicans. The Democratic base there depends on Latinos enough to where an upset is probably unlikely. That is one of the most stubborn demographics to both turn out to vote and to change the voting habits of. Not to mention the district is always whiter than it appears on paper, due to citizenship status and the much younger age of the Latino population in general. They just don't seem to care about Trump in a way that makes them want to vote more. This is at least part of if not the entire reason Latino-heavy districts with special elections or primaries post-2016 have not shown the same level of activity as other areas.

That being said, I like the idea that CMR's district could be worse off than Nunes. It's 89.7% white, and she just go some horrid numbers in her top-two primary, so that seems like it's more ripe for a win. This tape could help nudge it in that direction

Was my Deep South analogy fitting?

I think so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1027577773014089728

[Virginiá]

Going by those ratings, it's getting pretty difficult to make the math work for even a bare GOP majority.

On that note, I'm curious what % of Cook's "tossup" and "lean" districts Republicans won in 2010 and 2014, and Democrats in 2006 and 2008.

[Atlas Force]

So apparently Virginia Republicans are just gonna beat a dead horse on MS-13:

https://twitter.com/BarbaraComstock/status/1027579655056965633

[Holmes]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[swf541]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[Zaybay]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[Politician]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[MycroftCZ]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has a member of MS-13 even set foot in Comstock's district?

[Gass3268]

Has a member of MS-13 even set foot in Comstock's district?

The gang is an issue here in the DC area, but like Gillespie before her is ridiculously hyping it up to the point where everyone sees through it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Has a member of MS-13 even set foot in Comstock's district?

The gang is an issue here in the DC area, but like Gillespie before her is ridiculously hyping it up to the point where everyone sees through it.

Since when does Mississippi have 13 or more Representatives?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[libertpaulian]

Is Comstock trying to lose on purpose at this point?

[ON Progressive]

Oh my god the Virginia Republicans are back on MS-13.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CarrieNBCNews/status/1027249685482938368

[Progressive Pessimist]

MS-13 fear-mongering is like an addiction for Republicans. They always relapse.