2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[smoltchanov]

RRH’s previews are arguably the best of any political website out there, which is the only reason I lurk there. The comments sections on the daily roundups have become unreadable cesspools that cause your IQ to drop 10 points every time you make the mistake of reading the comments.

I know. I was a poster there for some time (until being banned for being "insufficiently Republican" in my posts, though i never pretended to be anything, but slightly-left-of-center-Indie (in present conditions - Democratically-leaning))... To be honest - the same situation exist on DKE, where i was banned for refusal to admire Obama, and my saying, that Reagan, in his 8 Presidential years, probably learned more then him))). Almost all partisan sites are, essentially the same - clubs for people thinking the same way...

[VPH]

Some of the Democrats running in longshot seats are proving able to raise good amounts of money. Peter Joffrion outraised Mo Brooks. Alan LaPolice raised over $100,000 in KS-01. Anthony Flaccovento raised almost $200k between pre-primary and the July report.

[LimoLiberal]

I want to read this...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1020323631988117504

Someone needs to coordinate an Atlas-wide Cook subscription. We can probably get a group discount or something.

[136or142]

According to www.politics1.com, the Democrats now have a candidate in Louisiana-5 (today is the filing deadline.)

District 5:
Ralph Abraham (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Billy Burkette (I) - Choctaw Tribal Council Chair/Chief of Police, Businessman & '16 Candidate
Jessee Fleenor (D) - Farmer
Kyle Randol (Libertarian) - Legal Assistant

http://www.politics1.com/la.htm

So, this means the Democrats will be running 432 candidates in 2018.

[IceSpear]

According to www.politics1.com, the Democrats now have a candidate in Louisiana-5 (today is the filing deadline.)

District 5:
Ralph Abraham (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Billy Burkette (I) - Choctaw Tribal Council Chair/Chief of Police, Businessman & '16 Candidate
Jessee Fleenor (D) - Farmer
Kyle Randol (Libertarian) - Legal Assistant

http://www.politics1.com/la.htm

So, this means the Democrats will be running 432 candidates in 2018.

What are the districts where they have no candidate?

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to www.politics1.com, the Democrats now have a candidate in Louisiana-5 (today is the filing deadline.)

District 5:
Ralph Abraham (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Billy Burkette (I) - Choctaw Tribal Council Chair/Chief of Police, Businessman & '16 Candidate
Jessee Fleenor (D) - Farmer
Kyle Randol (Libertarian) - Legal Assistant

http://www.politics1.com/la.htm

So, this means the Democrats will be running 432 candidates in 2018.

What are the districts where they have no candidate?

Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

[Virginiá]

Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

Might be worth adding up the vote deficit for Republicans in those districts from, maybe, 2016, or the last election they ran in (this redistricting cycle) to see what # of votes they would have been expected to get. I imagine a decent chunk of those are probably absurdly Democratic districts where the number of votes they would have added to the R's national PV share wouldn't have been much.

[ON Progressive]

According to www.politics1.com, the Democrats now have a candidate in Louisiana-5 (today is the filing deadline.)

District 5:
Ralph Abraham (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Billy Burkette (I) - Choctaw Tribal Council Chair/Chief of Police, Businessman & '16 Candidate
Jessee Fleenor (D) - Farmer
Kyle Randol (Libertarian) - Legal Assistant

http://www.politics1.com/la.htm

So, this means the Democrats will be running 432 candidates in 2018.

What are the districts where they have no candidate?

Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

Should note that GA-8 is only uncontested because Fred Swann dropped out to run for Agriculture Commissioner (which would've been left uncontested itself had Swann stayed put).

MI-1 is uncontested because our only primary candidate got DQ'd from being on the ballot due to signature issues, but he'll get the nomination via write-in most likely.

[IceSpear]

Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

Might be worth adding up the vote deficit for Republicans in those districts from, maybe, 2016, or the last election they ran in (this redistricting cycle) to see what # of votes they would have been expected to get. I imagine a decent chunk of those are probably absurdly Democratic districts where the number of votes they would have added to the R's national PV share wouldn't have been much.

I could see the unopposed districts gap becoming a talking point if Dems win the PV by a decent margin but still lose the chamber, even though it wouldn't have that much of an impact for the reason you stated.

It also wouldn't have any impact on polling, since there's nothing stopping someone in AL-07 or PA-18 from answering generic R, and vice versa.

[136or142]

According to www.politics1.com, the Democrats now have a candidate in Louisiana-5 (today is the filing deadline.)

District 5:
Ralph Abraham (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Billy Burkette (I) - Choctaw Tribal Council Chair/Chief of Police, Businessman & '16 Candidate
Jessee Fleenor (D) - Farmer
Kyle Randol (Libertarian) - Legal Assistant

http://www.politics1.com/la.htm

So, this means the Democrats will be running 432 candidates in 2018.

What are the districts where they have no candidate?

Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

Should note that GA-8 is only uncontested because Fred Swann dropped out to run for Agriculture Commissioner (which would've been left uncontested itself had Swann stayed put).

MI-1 is uncontested because our only primary candidate got DQ'd from being on the ballot due to signature issues, but he'll get the nomination via write-in most likely.

And California-8 is uncontested because no Democrat made the top two positions.  I've not read this anywhere, but it wouldn't surprise me if North Carolina-3 is uncontested because the Democrats de-facto supported maverick Republican Walter Jones against his latest establishment Republican primary challenger.

[136or142]

Per Ballotpedia, they are CA-8, GA-8, MI-1, and NC-3.  There are 38 districts with no Republican candidate.  Source

Might be worth adding up the vote deficit for Republicans in those districts from, maybe, 2016, or the last election they ran in (this redistricting cycle) to see what # of votes they would have been expected to get. I imagine a decent chunk of those are probably absurdly Democratic districts where the number of votes they would have added to the R's national PV share wouldn't have been much.

I could see the unopposed districts gap becoming a talking point if Dems win the PV by a decent margin but still lose the chamber, even though it wouldn't have that much of an impact for the reason you stated.

It also wouldn't have any impact on polling, since there's nothing stopping someone in AL-07 or PA-18 from answering generic R, and vice versa.

One way you could deal with that is to impute say 20% of the vote for any district with no Republican candidate.  In many cases, where there is no major party candidate in a district, the votes for a third party candidate (or several third party candidates) increase significantly.  So, if the total votes in a district were 225,000 and the Democrat received 200,000, you could impute the total votes in the district to 250,000 and give the imaginary Republican 50,000 (with a small vote remaining for the 3rd parties).  As long as it's made clear that the aggregate total there is based on imputed numbers and is not the actual aggregate totals I don't see a problem with it.

Of course, you could also base it on the percentage of vote that the Republican candidate usually receives in the district subtracted by a small percentage should the Democratic wave materialize, but that takes more work.

[ON Progressive]

The "experts" strike again!

Apparently VA-Sen is "competitive" and MO, IN, ND, and NV are all more likely to flip than Arizona.

PA being competitive is laughable too. Casey is ahead by 15+ in literally every non-Surveymonkey poll. Even in those surveymonkey polls, he is way ahead.

[IceSpear]

Nevada being #1 is the one saving grace of that article.

[Brittain33]

The "experts" strike again!

Apparently VA-Sen is "competitive" and MO, IN, ND, and NV are all more likely to flip than Arizona.

“Plus, several recent special congressional and state House elections in Florida have gone Democrats' way.“

Was there a special congressional election in Florida?!

[ltomlinson31]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

wow

[Doimper]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

It's happening?

[Gass3268]

More changes from Crystal Ball:

WV: Toss Up > Lean Dem

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1021724515292864512

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Please remove Steve King from Congress.

[Gass3268]

Dave must have gotten an early preview of the Monmouth Poll:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1021767997990559745

[Gass3268]

Dave must have gotten an early preview of the Monmouth Poll:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1021767997990559745

Patrick Murray is not happy:

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1021769393146146816

[JG]

Dave must have gotten an early preview of the Monmouth Poll:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1021767997990559745

Patrick Murray is not happy:

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1021769393146146816

Well, looks like someone won't get any more preview.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Time for me to update my house predictions!

[KingSweden]

Dave must have gotten an early preview of the Monmouth Poll:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1021767997990559745

Patrick Murray is not happy:

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1021769393146146816

I enjoyed this

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]