PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

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My mom used to watch his show a lot back when I was in high school

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https://doctoroz.com/issues/

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> Mitch McConnell is fixated on ensuring that the 2022 cycle is not a repeat of 2010 or 2012...

I understand the references to 2010 (DE, CO, etc. etc.).  But to what Senate races from 2012 is this referring?

IN MO ND probably


Truly embarrassing how badly we did in the senate in 2012

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I honestly think that whoever the GOP nominates here performs in the general election almost exactly the same. Oz, McCormick, Barnette it doesn’t matter. I think this race is going to be high-Tilt R to Lean R. I do not see how anyone is going to change their vote (or not vote) regardless of the candidate.

My hot take is we are less likely to hold PA than pick up NV , AZ and even GA .

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I don't know about you guys, but this might be the most excited I've been for a non-prezi primary in quite some time.  

I have a pretty clear candidate picked out for when I vote tomorrow, but I genuinely have no idea who's going to be the GOP's nominee when all is said and done.  

Are you voting for your fellow Doctor

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I don't know about you guys, but this might be the most excited I've been for a non-prezi primary in quite some time.  

I have a pretty clear candidate picked out for when I vote tomorrow, but I genuinely have no idea who's going to be the GOP's nominee when all is said and done.  

Are you voting for your fellow Doctor

She seems like a McCormick supporter to me. Oz is an interesting choice for moderate Republicans, since there's plenty of reason to believe that he would be the most ideologically centrist GOP senator given what he has said before the primary.

I think Oz and McCormick will have similar voting records though Oz will definitely be more “outspoken”. I don’t mind if either win and really really hope Barnette doesn’t win as I think she’d have a 50/50 chance of losing the general

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My Final Prediction is Oz wins by 4.5 points

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Imagine 5 years ago if someone told you the two leading Republican candidates for senate in Pennsylvania would be a Muslim backed by Trump and an African American women by the right wing grassroot voters.

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Let's go Barnette! Watching the incoming conservative race-baiting ("Will liberals call her potential election to the Senate historic?") is going to be entertaining. LOL.

Barnette would still have a 50/50 chance of winning so be careful what you wish for

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Oz has the momentum

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I now do wish McCormick won the primary and he may have without polls showing Barnette in 2nd lol.

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I now do wish McCormick won the primary and he may have without polls showing Barnette in 2nd lol.

McCormick wouldn't have been any better, in fact he may have been worse. TV personality is slightly more appealing than a hedge fund manager lol.

The issue is Oz doesn’t seem to be actively campaigning

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https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

I think you counting is off, shouldn’t WI be 50 and PA be 54?

No its 50/50 right now and if the GOP doesnt pick up any seats and loses PA that drops them to 49.

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Fetterman seems like a force of nature based on that rally. Oz seems like just a leaf in the wind. Of course a lot can change but Oz is by far the weakest Republican candidate they could have nominated.

Would you say even weaker than Barnette at this point

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Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

I'll disagree with you, if only because Mastriano is running a competent campaign and Oz isn't even trying to run a competent campaign. Based on that alone, I could see a split decision in Pennsylvania.

He just said at a rally he wants to turn PA into 'Northern Florida'.

If that’s all he wanted to do I’d easily support him as Florida is one of the best states in the country

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Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

I'll disagree with you, if only because Mastriano is running a competent campaign and Oz isn't even trying to run a competent campaign. Based on that alone, I could see a split decision in Pennsylvania.

He just said at a rally he wants to turn PA into 'Northern Florida'.

If that’s all he wanted to do I’d easily support him as Florida is one of the best states in the country

He also wants to end democracy.

Can you please read my posts better next time

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Given Fetterman's clear health issues, I kind of wish we had nominated Lamb or Kenyatta.

Either of them would also be destroying Oz, and we wouldn't be running the risk of an incumbent dying halfway through a term and a Governor Mastriano appointing his replacement.

If Fetterman wins, Mastriano ain't winning.  The two outcomes are not independent.

I'll disagree with you, if only because Mastriano is running a competent campaign and Oz isn't even trying to run a competent campaign. Based on that alone, I could see a split decision in Pennsylvania.

He just said at a rally he wants to turn PA into 'Northern Florida'.

If that’s all he wanted to do I’d easily support him as Florida is one of the best states in the country

It looks better from your distance.

Imagine wanting to move from a clean, forested state with good healthcare to a sinking swamp full of meth and alligators just because you like the fact that the governor doesn't like teaching about the Holocaust.

Sadly Oregon used to be like that 4-5 years ago , but it’s rapidly not like that anymore . Anyway you can think Florida is a better state without wanting to move there cause you know there are other factors in why people move.

I would not want to leave behind my family and closest friends to move for example .

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https://twitter.com/harvf/status/1563708422805233666

Original photo:

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1558159881542189060

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https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

But teh GOP has moderated on social issues .

Yes it's an undeniable fact

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https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

But teh GOP has moderated on social issues .

Yes it's an undeniable fact

They have not moderated.

10 years ago , zero Republicans would have voted for Gay Marriage let alone 47. If you want to talk about 20 years ago , the Republican President then had people arrested for Sodomy as Governor while one of the most right wing senators today supports repealing Texas's anti Sodomy Law.

So yes they have moderated on LGBT Issues and to say otherwise is completely preposterous

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So yes they have moderated on LGBT Issues and to say otherwise is completely preposterous

I'll believe it when I count the R votes on the bill codifying Obergefell and Windsor into law. Otherwise, they've only moderated by choosing to be silent on issues where their supporters are out of step with the mainstream.

47 vs 0 10 years ago

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Just saw an Oz ad during the Eagles' game (RIP Carson Wentz) pelting Fetterman for his support of student loan forgiveness.  

During one scene, the ad showed a steel worker with a hard hat wiping his brow and decrying that hard-working tax payers would have to pay off the student loans of "gender studies" majors and "bartenders with blue hair".  

I have mixed feelings about student loan forgiveness, but the ad's message that only blue-collar workers pay their taxes was equal parts laughable and enraging.  

I don't think thats the message though of the ad. Rather that people who made the right financial choices and did not go into debt for useless degrees should not have to pay to forgive the loans of people who did go into debt for those types of degrees.

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https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1575508812269748231

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https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1575508812269748231

Since Fetterman is relatively left-wing and belongs to the progressive faction, not a huge surprise here.

Also Oz is not really that right wing despite being endorsed by Trump . The reason Trump endorsed him is cause of Melania was apparently a huge fan of Oz