PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/293023437268598785?t=zb6WzmDR_UFORlvn0fz04Q&...

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/293023437268598785?t=zb6WzmDR_UFORlvn0fz04Q&...

This race is now Safe D.

[wbrocks67]

Dr. Oz could never. This was Montgomery County today.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1569033108279762947

[SnowLabrador]

I want Fetterman to win, but crowd sizes don't mean s**t. Beto's drawing massive crowds too, but nobody here seriously expects him to win.

[wbrocks67]

I want Fetterman to win, but crowd sizes don't mean s**t. Beto's drawing massive crowds too, but nobody here seriously expects him to win.

Sure, they don't always. But I think when you compare it to some of the narratives, like, will Fetterman play in the suburbs? It dispels a lot of that, and also shows that Fetterman/Ds have the energy on their side.

Also Beto isn't *likely* to win but he has a shot.

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty stunning. Article on Chester County voter reg:

November 2021: D+5,069
June 2022: D+4,999
August 2022: D+6,470

https://www.pottsmerc.com/2022/09/10/after-dobbs-democratic-numbers-surge-in-chester-county/

[Xing]

This is pretty stunning. Article on Chester County voter reg:

November 2021: D+5,069
June 2022: D+4,999
August 2022: D+6,470

https://www.pottsmerc.com/2022/09/10/after-dobbs-democratic-numbers-surge-in-chester-county/

Yeah, I don’t think Fetterman will have any issue doing well in Chester. It’d be interesting to see if the trend is similar in other suburban Philly counties.

[MT Treasurer]

Oz is a prime example of a candidate who could really use some of Reagan's self-deprecating humor ("The one bad thing about me winning this race would be my wife expecting me to serve the crudité" etc). Then again, the line between self-mockery and self-abasement can be thin, and while Oz does have experience playing an audience, he seems to be a lot less confident on the campaign trail.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Dr. Oz could never. This was Montgomery County today.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1569033108279762947

I see myself in the 3rd photo!

That being said, I have to admit that hearing Fetterman speak was…off. His sentences were a lot shorter and he’d miss a word here and there. I mean, he was on message and he was never super charismatic before the stroke, but it was noticeable. I hope it’s temporary or something he can work through.

[wbrocks67]

Dr. Oz could never. This was Montgomery County today.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1569033108279762947

I see myself in the 3rd photo!

That being said, I have to admit that hearing Fetterman speak was…off. His sentences were a lot shorter and he’d miss a word here and there. I mean, he was on message and he was never super charismatic before the stroke, but it was noticeable. I hope it’s temporary or something he can work through.

From the clips that I've seen, he seemed fine. Even the Inquirer noted that compared to some of the other recent-ish speeches, that you can tell he's getting much better.

I think he might still have a harder time with the big crowds and delivering messages that way, because he was 95% fine for the Pod Save America interview. Aside from a few issues here and there, he sounded nearly as "normal" as pre-stroke.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Yeah, between what wbrocks said and Biden's recent successes, I'm still not worried. If it even makes an impact, it will be negligible enough not to affect the race.

We will beat the Republicans and the Lamb cultists in November.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

TV ads REALLY leaning anti-Fetterman at the moment.  

They seem to be hitting him on a two main fronts:

(1) Being soft on crime (wanting to commute sentences for murderers/doing away with life sentences, etc etc)
(2) Being anti-gun

"SAFETY!" appears to be the primary underlying theme; there's been very little mention of the economy or abortion.  Zero mentions of Trump. 

[wbrocks67]

TV ads REALLY leaning anti-Fetterman at the moment.  

They seem to be hitting him on a two main fronts:

(1) Being soft on crime (wanting to commute sentences for murderers/doing away with life sentences, etc etc)
(2) Being anti-gun

"SAFETY!" appears to be the primary underlying theme; there's been very little mention of the economy or abortion.  Zero mentions of Trump. 

Yeah, I've been feeling this way over the past couple weeks - thoroughly confused as to why it feels like there are way more Oz/GOP ads up on the air and not Fetterman. Fetterman has more $$$, and Senate Majority Pac/DSCC were spending even more money on this race than SLF/NRSC were, so I'm confused as to what's going on. Fett ruled the airwaves over the summer, but it feels like just at the right time they need to really go in, they're letting up a bit.

I also remember Planned Parenthood I think running the anti-Oz abortion ads during the summer, so I hope they're putting more money here, because IMO Oz's newest abortion comments that were unearthed should be the easiest ad ever for the Fett team.

And it seems Oz has nothing really to run on so he's defaulting to 'crime' all the way now.

[wbrocks67]

With Oz's recent trips to the suburbs, I think it's also interesting how there's a lot of hay being made of Oz trying to 'turn off the MAGA' to appeal there.

But it doesn't make much sense, you can't just rally with Trump one weekend, get caught on tape saying abortion is murder, and then say you're only for abortion in the cases of rape, incest, or life of mother. All of those are insanely out of step with most suburban voters. You can't just show up in Delaware or Bucks county and act as if you're a different person and all of that doesn't exist? Especially the abortion and Trump rally stuff. People aren't stupid.

But it's also the arc of the Oz campaign - to simply be whoever he needs to be in front of whoever he's talking to at the time.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1569378179462189060

Oz came out in favor of same-sex marriage, and the conservatives in the replies are NOT happy.

[wbrocks67]

This entire op-ed from the Washington Post is completely gross. I'm convinced the press is now upset this didn't/hasn't yet turned into a 50/50 race so they need to make it become one.

They even act as if this debate schedule was pre-approved and then Fetterman backed out - OZ is the one who produced all these debates! So now Fetterman is in the wrong for simply not doing whatever Oz asks?

Then the best is at the end they try and act like this is all on the same level and simply "asking" questions about Fetterman's health is the same as Oz mocking him.

Where is the op-ed for Herschel Walker or Doug Mastriano then?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/12/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-debate-health/

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

But teh GOP has moderated on social issues .

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

But teh GOP has moderated on social issues .

Yes it's an undeniable fact

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

But teh GOP has moderated on social issues .

Yes it's an undeniable fact

They have not moderated.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

But teh GOP has moderated on social issues .

Yes it's an undeniable fact

They have not moderated.

10 years ago , zero Republicans would have voted for Gay Marriage let alone 47. If you want to talk about 20 years ago , the Republican President then had people arrested for Sodomy as Governor while one of the most right wing senators today supports repealing Texas's anti Sodomy Law.

So yes they have moderated on LGBT Issues and to say otherwise is completely preposterous

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BruinGOP/status/1569386915107045376?s=20&t=MdeWmP1xxyZMQ...
Tossup -> Safe D

This is what I think is unfortunate about the GOP.

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option. Yet on the GOP side a candidate support SSM (a relatively minor issue for non-LGBTQ folks), they're instantly blasted. I think it goes to show a lot of homophobia still exists within the party even if they're slowly evolving on the issue overall.

I feel like if Oz were smart, he could actually view the issue through a pretty scientific lens, like not culturally endorsing it but explain why evolutionarily homosexual couples have a role in society.

That would lose much of the intended audience right there.

[Brittain33]

On the Dem side, a lot of the progressive base at least understands that even if you disagree on your Dem candidate on even major issues, voting for them is still the best option.

Really? It almost never feels that way...

[Brittain33]

So yes they have moderated on LGBT Issues and to say otherwise is completely preposterous

I'll believe it when I count the R votes on the bill codifying Obergefell and Windsor into law. Otherwise, they've only moderated by choosing to be silent on issues where their supporters are out of step with the mainstream.