Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Zinneke]

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDU; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

CDA not CDU.

Well, its not so much that Omtzigt was going to be offered a seat cabinet, but its clear that Rutte wanted him silenced ("functie, anders" is open to debate), and you can do that by forcing them into a low level cabinet position or, of course, sending them to Brussels. Rutte denied he had issues with Omzigt, straight up to the camera. He lied. He is now devoid of credibility, and fighting for his career.  

Oh, sorry about the typo.

I understand your point, but, again, I don't see this as very serious. To be honest, that's quite common practice in my country (maybe that's why I don't see this as a problem.)

I also think its a storm in a teacup, but although the situation with Covid is serious, politics stays politics, and this is a pure political "water cooler" story.

Kaag has ditched him, she said in the debate today "here our ways part". So that suggests D66 are out of any Rutte-led coalition. Politically this is extremely harming his image. He was seen as honest to his supporters, but now he is caught just bare faced lying and trying to shift the blame to other sources because he realised he could be held responsible for political marginalisation of a now super-popular figure. Other party leaders can't be seen to support him anymore.

His other way out is the far right support him and CDA are also up for it, but many on the far right hate Rutte more than the Left (some consider him a leftist anyway). They can smell a scalp.

So its not just his credibility that is done : his political capital is too.

[Zinneke]

Could Rutte still remain PM after a re-vote?

He is facing a no-confidence vote soon.
He fails that he's pretty much done.

 he wins then Re-vote? - i dunno, depends how soon it is. The VVD have to weigh up whether he is an asset or a liability. I would still say he's an asset - I don't like his politics but he can actually manage, and he will probably be better than anyone else at the VVD for striking deals with parties to his left and at the EU level.  

Rutte should stop spinning ("I actually wanted to give him a promotion!") and just put his hands up and admit he was playing "spelletjes" (little games) at a political level and come clean as a whole.

Ollogren is speaking now, suddenly completely aware of the facts. She is also thus being caught out as fundementally dishonest. But then she is also pretty hard done by by this given she was photographed with the notes having tested positive for covid and having to rush out.

[Zinneke]

Another big thing that has come up so far from the debates is that Rutte claimed that he was informed this morning at 07:30 AM that the notes indicated he talked about Omtzigt, while other faction leaders were only able to look at their notes between 09:00-10:00 2 hours later. So someone leaked that information to Rutte and Rutte does not want to give his source away.

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDA; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

Its more likely that Rutte is afraid that Omtzigt will become CDA faction leader when CDA joins the government and Hoekstra decides to become Minister. And Rutte doesn't want someone that will criticize too much from parliament, so 'promoting' Omtzigt to Minister will silence him. In the notes, it seems that Jorritsma has also suggested to 'promote' Omtzigt to become Speaker. A symbolic neutral position.

The leaked notes are also very interesting.

https://www.kabinetsformatie2021.nl/documenten

What a treasure trove of all the strategies and relations.

[Zinneke]

Rutte survived the no confidence vote so Rutte IV looks to be back on. I think D66 and CDA will suffer though for saying one thing and doing another.

[Zinneke]

So the main question last night is whether D66 and CDA have decided to give Rutte one more chance or they are guilding him to his political end. But Rutte political life is now in D66 and CDA hands now

So they are roughly 4 scenerio now for the formation:

1) CDA and D66 want to continue with Rutte as PM Rutte in exchange for big concessions. Only likely coalition will be VVD/D66/CDA/CU as they were the only parties not voting for motion of no confidence.
2) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is willing to step down for a another PM, probably someone else from VVD
3) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down so CDA and D66 will govern without the VVD but with the Left in a coalition of chaos
4) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down and we will get gridlock and can go back to scenario 1-3 when there is pressure or possibly new elections

Rutte dreams of being a high ranking eu position are gone I take it

No those plans are accelerating.
https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20210324/6604722/espana-alia-holanda-ue-menos-unanime.html
Rutte wants to form a pro-EU, pro-market, pro-competition block that tries to counter-weight France and Germany's temptation to go more towards the China Inc. economic model of state subsidised major international players.

His domestic issues won't impact his EU career. Von Der Leyen, Michel are evidence of that. Rutte is smarter and more competent than them, but he will likely be vetoed by Poland, Hungary, Malta, Cyprus, France and Germany.

[Zinneke]

Segers says to Nederlands Dagblad that CU are not entering another cabinet with Rutte as PM. He states that cooperation with VVD in a new cabinet is still possible, but not with Rutte cause he is the poster boy of the political culture of the last ten years. A culture where elections are a nuisance and an interruption, and where opposition (i.e Omzigt) is impeded. The man responsible for that culture can not lead a cabinet, which have to change that culture.

Without CU's votes the other day, there had not been a majority to save Rutte in the vote of no confidence, so with Segers' statement it really seems like game over for Rutte.

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve. We thought he was done on thursday, but this guy is incredible is his ability to survive.

[Zinneke]

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve.

It's about time the Netherlands got a PM who can't be compared to Harry Potter.

Honestly I prefer Rutte to Schippers, or pretty much the entire VVD. I imagine a lot of the Dutch left feel the same.

[Zinneke]

That JA21 figure though might be important.

[Zinneke]

PSOL is right. I think the "don't knows" in Denk show a story. Also, as Baudet said when he had to find one good thing about DENK, they do care a lot about shopkeepers (from their community, but the legislation as a whole is pro-shopkeeper). I think that demographic likes Rutte's pragmatism when it comes to general governance and low tax rates.

[Zinneke]

Vera Bergkamp from D66 was elected Speaker of parliament. She won 74 of the 139 votes cast in the secret ballot, defeating incumbent speaker Khadija Arib from PvdA (38 votes) and Martin Bosma from PVV (27 votes). While the ballot was secret, it sounds like Bergkamp was supported by D66, VVD and CDA. The last votes could be DENK, who obviously did not vote for Bosma and hates Arib after she criticized DENK heavily for their personalized attack videos on MPs from other parties with migrant background.

The 49-year old Bergkamp is by her own words: "I am a lesbian, half-Moroccan, but also a woman, a human being, an Amsterdam citizen and a citizen of the world." She has been a MP since 2012, before that she was leader of the Dutch LGBT advocacy group for four years.

Do I remember correctly that Arib was involved in some sort of odd scandal?

Critical of DENK? Of Pechtold? And also got involved in the Dion Graus case* which probably ended her reasonable relationship with the PVV, which she tried to woo by allowing them to push the envelope.

She made more enemies than friends trying to play politics to secure a second term. And she wasn't that good at the nitty gritty of being Speaker, especially with logistics during Covid apparently, while also being arrogant.

*this is the odd scandal you are referring to i think.

[Zinneke]

Largest party per municipality (postal votes only)

Only voters 70 years and older had the possibility to vote by mail.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Classifaction/status/1381158821129768963

Also something like 65.000 votes by post were not taken into account because of mistakes.

On reddit there is a highres version of all the parties' electoral maps (make sure to look at the legend)
https://i.redd.it/d43xjtso6ds61.png

small version :

[Zinneke]

While the formation of a government is going very slow (negotiations between parties haven't even started yet), an MP has split of from her party already. Sole 50PLUS MP Lianne den Haan has turned independent. Something that was not completelu unexpected, before the elections it emerged that Den Haan disagreed with the party programme on key points as pension reform and retirement age. Still, a split within two months is preposterous.

Also bringing to a close Jan Nagel's political career, which had an understated influence on Dutch politics it has to be said.

[Zinneke]

This will hopefully be a catalyst to making leadership elections more transparent and opening them up to the wider public. In the Netherlands there is still a culture of the predecessor appoint their successor, or some shady committee, or in this case 3 major donors. Hoekstra was, as commented by many, an Establishment stitch up.

[Zinneke]

De Hond might be trolling again but he has CDA down to 6 seats in his latest poll.

Any new developments into the factional fights in SP?

Two weeks ago SP members wanted a split with Rood, the youth wing. Now there are discussions between the two to resolve differences. But there are still a lot of internal factions and the leadership is getting more and more criticised from all quarters. The issue also now is that Communist Platform has now become the "Marxists Forum" and want to replace the leadership. CP still exists as a separate entity with a board and that meant SP's statutes could prevent one being a member of both CP and SP (and also Rood-SP if that split is confirmed). MF is a open discussion group and can maneuver more effectively within the party, but still faces resistance from the Marijnissen clan. Honestly I think it will take a genuine electoral dismantling and reformation of the Dutch anti-capitalist Left.


D66 members are also getting critical of their wonder woman Kaag because they find the negotiations with Rutte are not transparent to them enough. She argues that this is normal in a negotiation.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/Bjheijne/status/1407984329100304387

Wilders is definitely protecting gay rights from the evil Islamic agenda though!

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/Bjheijne/status/1407984329100304387

Wilders is definitely protecting gay rights from the evil Islamic agenda though!

Dumb question, but isn't DENK more of a socially conservative party? I remember reading somewhere they were somewhat more hostile towards LGBT than other Dutch parties. Am I confusing something?

sticking it to Orban is probably far more worthwhile politically than them exposing themselves as homophobes. But yes, they have adopted against endorsing pro-LGBT+ legislation before. https://joop.bnnvara.nl/nieuws/geen-steun-van-pvv-cda-denk-lhbti-akkoord

Of course, part of PVV and especially FvD 's stance is simply siding with Orban (and by extension Putin) against the "globohomos". The actual debate on LGBT being taught properly is secondary in all this. Its all about being a fifth column good ally to the right people that back them.


Heaven forbid these parties, whether its DENK or FvD, put the internal consistency their values ahead of their donors and alliances with external state actors.

[Zinneke]

BV NL is Van Haga who broke off from Baudet, who seems to be getting more and more unhinged with his fanboys.

[Zinneke]

RIP CDA

Imagine we are back to the headline "PvdA twice as big as CDA" ten years ago...and it's significance compared to now.

[Zinneke]

Why did CDA force out Omtzigt instead of making him leader? What a shot in the foot.

What jeron said + the donor scandal where basically a bunch of millionaires donated and placed Hoekstra in the driver's seat. CDA have such an identity crisis that basically the highest bidders get to decide their direction now.

[Zinneke]

Bij1 is decomposing at a rapid pace, seemingly trying to outdo FvDs internal struggles. There was first a member of their Haarlem who resigned due to white male heterosexuality. And now the party's number 2 Quincy Gario's suspension for alleged inappropriate behaviour (with the report into it being hidden) has meant a whole chunk of the party are breaking off.

[Zinneke]

PvdA and GL announce that they will now negotiate as one unit, whatever that is worth. Probably just means more deadlock.

[Zinneke]

[Zinneke]

I think in the short term there is a very specific blockage that is linked to the CU-D66 political falling out, and the CDA's precarious position. I think eventually D66 will accept CU back in, although getting rid of CDA potentially for good might be tempting for a lot of parties.

In the long term, even though they seem to be competing with Belgium for who can have the most insane parliamentary fragmentation, I don't expect the NL's fragmentation to make it less governable. There is still, arguably too much, elite social settings that reinforce ties between opposition parties. There's also the fact that the protracted "Nazbol majority" scenario in BE doesn't exist in the NL. Even SP and JA21 for example seem able to negotiate on majorities and pass individual legislative texts. They aren't fully testimonial parties who use the parliament as a cash cow and a circus act like PTB/PVDA and VB.

Will it become more inefficient to negotiate majorities? Yes. Will the Netherlands be crippled by poor governance? No. You may eventually drift towards Scandi-blocks with agreements like the one GL-PvdA signed to maximize negotiation strategies.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/jlowijk/status/1433772613814345732

[Zinneke]

D66 starting to collapse too according to Maurice de Hond.



I said that fragmentation won't affect Dutch politics in the long run, but that being said I don't think a new election will help at all now if the big winners are the BBB. VVD seem untouchable and at the same time the weakening of their partners corners them into a rock and a hard place with a fragmented left and far right.