Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Zinneke]

That Voerendaal result suggest that VVD are really digging into the CDA's hegemony in the South like never before. Its actually not so long ago the CDA would lock the two southern provinces out (and PvdA the two northern provinces).

[Zinneke]

Yeah, I think that the D66 surge mainly comes from the north based on these results, with only about a 1-2% gain in the southern rural parts of the netherlands. The VVD seems to lose ground to the D66 in the north, whilst gaining quite a bit in the south.

D66 is more urban-rural than north-south. Like we said earlier it over-performs in uni cities so look out for Tilburg, Nijmegen, Wageningen, Groningen, Maastricht for D66 strongholds outside the Randstad.

[Zinneke]

D66 should have the first transgender parliamentarian in Dutch history if i understand correctly, barring some serious preference voting changes.

[Zinneke]

Well done Klaver for releasing the posters basically saying it doesnt matter if you vote for D66.

25% of your voters left you for the Kaagtrain

[Zinneke]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

[Zinneke]

Edam-Volendam doing something weird. Its one of only a few areas where the PVV improved on 2017, and its in the heart of Holland. FvD and JA21 made gains comparable to elsewhere, it was the CDA which fell off. Any explanations?

Its historically a fishing port, the kind of Christian one like Katwijk, but that got shafted for a bunch of reasons and is now mostly known for its suicide rate and cocaine trade. Has always been one of the PVV's best towns outside of Limburg that FvD started to take over too. Very lower middle class and white means far right do well.

[Zinneke]

Thanks to all for answers. On a personal note, it’s pretty tragic that I can actually remember when Jesse Klaver was the Guardian’s latest pin up populist slaying great white hope for Europe and European vAlUeS. RIP vrijheidsvechter 😢

And I remember the Times declaring Baudet kingmaker that same election despite having only 2 seats. It just goes to show the tunnel vision of the British press.

Anyway, Klaver is not a very good campaigner. Last time out he was exposed during the debate. This time out he wasn't really able to do what he does best, which is having a large stage at a university hall and delivers a Jessiah lecture. The fact that PvdD have swung slightly leftwards and more orientated towards becoming "Dark Green" also will not have helped. Thieme was popular with everyone, but for some reason Owenand hasn't dropped the batton.

[Zinneke]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

Especially in Southern Limburg the culture is quite different. People from there consider themselves distinct from the rest of the country. Generally, they regard the rest of the country as Holland and of course they themselves are not included in that. Little anecdote: A friend of mine who comes from Oss in Northern Brabant (a southern province) went to uni in Maastricht. People asked him if he was from the North, of course he replied no, i am from Oss. The Limburgish people answered: That is the north!
What always surprises me most out there is that people flatout refuse to talk Dutch even when you talk to them in Dutch, but cling to their own dialect instead, even in a city like Maastricht

Because I do some groundhopping, and Maastricht is a lovely city, I attended a South Limburg derby between Maastricht and Roda. Huge police presence, mock hangings, songs about WW2 collaboration, game stopped several times for crowd violence, Maastricht fans making a big deal of burning the Limburg flag, but still also finding the time to sing Hollanders Hollanders zet ze maar kapot, Hollanders Hollanders kogel in hun kop", presumably to the referee. Also they insist that Venlo should be part of Brabant, and that the only reason Limburgers aren't independent is because "we hate each other more".

You get the same provincial effect in Belgian Limburg. By far and away the ones who make the most noise about Flemish nationalism favouring Antwerp and Brussels rather than them, always voting for their own, etc.

[Zinneke]

Worth noting JA21 leader Eerdmans has worked before with D66 at the local level in Rotterdam. Dutch local politics is...strange...but its not out of the question, given JA21 inherited a lot of FvD seats in the Senate, that Eerdmans plays a more constructive role with a view to showing voters he won't just stay on the sidelines but actually influence policy.

[Zinneke]

And Eerdmans' local profile is seemingly helping them at the death. VOLT are now slightly ahead but with Rotterdam still to come in and the surrounding towns voting JA21 above their national average they should be able to take a seat.

[Zinneke]

If you want to know why Dutch politics works so much better than Belgian, despite also having a fragmented parliament look at this video :

https://nos.nl/video/2373166-partijleiders-voor-het-eerst-bijeen-na-verkiezingen-nou-gefeliciteerd-man.html

I am not getting all soppy again about the Dutch system, because someone like Baudet is right when he talks of a partijkartel, but the fact that everyone is there around the table, talking normally to each other, not antagonizing each other, following protocol and behaving like adults, is a far cry from the mess we have in Belgian when elites negotiate with each other. Of course the linguistic divide matters, perhaps less so because of the language and more because of the lack of afterhour drinking and general sharing of a common education and ideas. But the breakdown of consociationalism in the NL is not happening anytime soon.

FvD have finally made a statement saying as the party that has won the most seats (which looks likely to be true, despite a pretty insane 4 years) they must be given the initiative to talk to the other parties for a government.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/CasMudde/status/1372632741401989124

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/almodozo/status/1372613086889250816

JA21 are the new "posh alt-right".

D66's win looks to be smaller than expected (just lost 2 seats to GL and DENK) but the expat vote might save them another seat.

[Zinneke]

CDA and PvdA are screwed

[Zinneke]

Is there any reason why PvdA, SP, and GL shouldn't all be shuttered and the Dutch left just told to start over with new organisations?

Well the only positive I see from that is that the media battle for second place becomes more interesting. Ironically, if D66 actually manage to get some of their traditional "crown jewels" from their platform, Dutch voters would be allowed to choose mayors and Minister-Presidents(!) directly, so forming one left candidate would be a given (and no guarentee D66 gets behind this candidate at all - so costing them left voters).

Really the last time a left-wing party did well (PvdA 2012), it might seem like ages ago, but a big factor was the "presidentialisation" of the debate between Rutte and Samsom. So having a joint list that makes headwind in the polls as a credibly left challenger might also make an impact in that respect. I would merge GL-PvdA but then the latter is still a vote bank in certain areas.  

GL and SP have had electoral accords in the past. But nowadays they attract two different electorates and I think SP just need a better figurehead. Lilian is nice on TV and gets on well with other politicians but I think Peter Kwint has the more rough edges anti-establishment credentials that could attract certain types back and keep the old SP loyalists going at the same time.

I've literally never heard of Ubuntuism, but what happened on the island St. Eustatius

ge moet ge beeld kleiner maken!

Ubuntu Connected Front has got some ties to African ethnic rights groups if I understand correctly.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/omtzigtmeter/status/1373357505275949062/photo/1

[Zinneke]

The GL vs PvdD map by Joos de Voogd

[Zinneke]

I think the leftist party issue might seem bizarre given Ploumen said they would only join if another left-wing party joined but both are basically in a prisoners dilemma either way where if one goes the other gets to act as  official left-wing opposition and/or the other gets to act as the constructive actor but both want to see what the other does first and how the pollsters react.

[Zinneke]

Have the SP shown any interest in government this time round?

Yes on paper but they wont join.

[Zinneke]

Have the SP shown any interest in government this time round?

Yes on paper but they wont join.

Why?
[/quote

A ton of reasons mostly relating to VVD and internal strife within the party.

[Zinneke]

Rotterdam:

https://twitter.com/Gerbenhelleman/status/1375529802086645762

cool graphic showing the effect of local candidates and where :

https://twitter.com/SjoerdMouissie/status/1375728647638810624

Baudet vs Van Haga preference votes (both FvD)




The Circuit is having a field day speculating who is after Omzigt and why. CDA deny it flatly, but people in CDA internally say he is only out for his own image and not a team player. Rutte also doesn't like having people undermine government but (obviously) publically denies wanting to sideline Omzigt

I am wondering if this means CDA is out of the picture for the coalition.

[Zinneke]

Presumably not this time, but what is pvdd's stance towards joining governments? Do they serve in any local or regional coalitions?

They are not in any provincial coalitions.
They only stand in 15 gemeenten

From what I read/listen on podcasts to : They are by nature a testimonial party and they act like one. They can vote to secure individual pieces of legislation. A lot of the internal debate is "the bigger we get, how much more responsibility do we need to take up" (as I said before this is a very Dutch problem ). I think they would have no issues joining a centre-left alliance from the outside were it possible. At the same time as a testimonial party, they have quite dogmatic (no pun intended) positions, and the influx of a certain type of member can mean they are perhaps unreliable to govern with. They also risk losing a lot of their protest voters.

tldr about as much chance as SGP.

[Zinneke]

And an Omzigt breakaway scenario is already polling at 23 seats, which means nothing of course, but also says everything. Omzigt is now a symbol.

[Zinneke]

I get it if this would be too long to respond to lol, but can someone explain what exactly Omzigt's position is relative to the CDA as a whole? What makes him and his positions different from that of the rest of the party? And different from the rest of the Rutte coalition?

He is a backbencher who led the investigation into the benefits scandal. He is also known for being a strong parliamentary investigator in general, who took Rutte's governments to task over other issues.


His position to the CDA is that he often criticises a government that CDA prop up. I also said that from what I read, Hoekstra was placed in without holding a vote because Hoekstra comes from a more traditional dutch elite background (in terms of career path) - a lot thought Hoekstra got positive press as a politician because of that, whereas De Jonge and Omzigt were not trendy enough. I think that plays a role as in Dutch politics often the "lijstrekker" was traditionally selected by a committee before membership votes come in and can be quite shady as a result when they get to decide due to a last minute resignation. Maybe the higher echelons of CDA were worried Omzigt wins vs Hoekstra after his surprising result against favorite De Jonge (almost a draw).

But keep in mind the CDA are a cross class, cross religious party and this means they have loads of factions. It is kreminology for us outsiders so a Dutchman who knows the party might explain better where Omzigt lies in that cosmos.

Anyway, that is the reason why people initially thought Ollogren's brief was due to Hoekstra not wanting Omzigt in his usual position as annoying backbencher. People thought CDA higher ups wanted Omzigt to either take responsibility or "bugger" off as a way to undo his image. But it turns out Rutte is the one who wanted him gone.

Rutte is done

Yup. Extraordinary. Teflon Mark undone because of a classic political blunder he didnt even commit. But it also means I predict a re-vote. VVD will demand right to the PM spot and I imagine the more right-wing membership go for someone who wants JA21 or even Wilders on board. Not sure how VVD have evolved though since FvD and JA21 have taken some of their members.

And an Omzigt breakaway scenario is already polling at 23 seats, which means nothing of course, but also says everything. Omzigt is now a symbol.

That poll's hypothetical is F-ing weird BTW. Hype is hype, relevancy is relevancy, but then there is "my personality party will pull votes from everyone." So yeah, a relevant symbol.

If anything the Netherlands needs less parties not more a couple of parties should merge

I think its just people transferring all the issues they have with the Hague circuit into a candidate. His positions are irrelevant. Like Sunstorm or freek said, he voted for tougher legislation on benefits, then investigates government taking too tough a stance. What matters is his Knight of the Realm image, and that people are externalising frustration towards this really weird political saga that has only just begun.

(oh and its also Maurice de Hond trolling)

[Zinneke]

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDU; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

CDA not CDU.

Well, its not so much that Omtzigt was going to be offered a seat cabinet, but its clear that Rutte wanted him silenced ("functie, elders" is open to debate), and you can do that by forcing them into a low level cabinet position or, of course, sending them to Brussels. Rutte denied he had issues with Omzigt, straight up to the camera. He lied. He is now devoid of credibility, and fighting for his career.