Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Zinneke]

Just realised where I had heard Party of the Future before...a small "Die Partei" like party in the early 2000s was called that and had some pretty awesome features, such as wanting a Minister of Parties

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8tVYE3m76A


of course they have essentially been replaced by the "Party against the Citizen"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdoU8A7OKfg


On a more serious note, for dutch speakers the latest Stuk Rood Vlees podcast episode is quite a good one about the history of breakaways in Dutch party history. VVD and PVV (itself a breakaway from VVD) have by far the most amount of defections of elected officials to their name.

[Zinneke]

Amsterdam GroenLinks Mayor Famke Halsema has been heavily criticised for her handling of the BlackLivesMatter protests in her city as the Netherlands is still technically in lockdown over Covid-19. Thousands gathered :

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-protests-netherlan-idUSKBN2390UP

While she did call for restraint and the organizers did not expect so many to turn out, she was seen walking around rather proudly in the protest which is not an essential domestic issue.

[Zinneke]

developments in Dutch politics :

The Cabinet is preparing an emergency law that will allow it to rule by decree in a lot of policy fields and especially take emergency powers while Corona  is still a threat. Usually its a law designed for brief periods of civil disorder.  Its a preliminary law that still needs to be revised, but several actors, such as the Raad van State, legal academics, the opposition and even some D66ers [who have remembered what their party is about] are against what they call unnecessary and draconian powers afforded to cabinet allowing the suppression of freedom of assembly so easily.

Pension reform was finally agreed among the cabinet and the employers/unions, led by D66 Minister Wouter Koolmees, which is quite an Everest in Dutch (and indeed European) politics due to its perceived unsustainability. Its the biggest pension reform since the 1950s and its quite smart of them to agree it during an unnewsworthy period. It needs confirmation in the Eerste Kamer and will enter into effect in 2022 with 2026 being the deadline for private companies to adopt the new pension system.

Dutch retail and industry is taking a bit of a kicking. There was the announcement of the loss of Unilever's headquarters to UK after a tug of war between them and the Hague. In the end Rutte and Hoekstra tried their best but the fact remains a lot of executives in the Anglo-Dutch company are more London-orientated anyway. Meanwhile retail giant Hema is undergoing administration, just a few years after V&D also went bust. Hema is a bit of a Dutch institution on the retail market and it seems rival Blokker is weighing up a bid. But in general Dutch highstreet retail has not been healthy since the GFC.

Also, in party political news, the Youth wing of the FVD in South Holland had 89 pages of anti-semitic content leaked from their Whatsapp group, including depictions of Anne Frank taking cocaine for some reason(?), but mainly the usual stuff about Jews being against white interests. Baudet denounced what he called a "thought police" in the media that wanted to take action against his movement, but he made one of their high profile members resign in response anyway. Also the FvD's parliamentary group have welcomed ex-VVDer Wyben Van Haga, who was expelled by the VVD for conflict of interest.  

[Zinneke]

developments in Dutch politics :


Pension reform was finally agreed among the cabinet and the employers/unions, led by D66 Minister Wouter Koolmees, which is quite an Everest in Dutch (and indeed European) politics due to its perceived unsustainability. Its the biggest pension reform since the 1950s and its quite smart of them to agree it during an unnewsworthy period. It needs confirmation in the Eerste Kamer and will enter into effect in 2022 with 2026 being the deadline for private companies to adopt the new pension system.

Any more details? Or maybe some link to the article where I can read about it? Would be very grateful.

https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-CH/Insights/2019/07/gnb-netherlands-sweeping-pension-reforms-agreed

[Zinneke]

Hard to believe its been almost 4 years since the last election but in March 2021 the Dutch will likely return to the polls and some of the parties' key figures are already jostling to see who will be the Lijsttrekker - the list leader.

Within D66 their poor polling numbers mean Rob Jetten is under pressure...and Sigrid Kaag was waiting in the wings to take the limelight . Jetten just announced he will not even run for leadership, leaving Kaag, a diplomat by profession and current trade minister, to take a leading role in the campaign. Ollongren was also touted, but she's a controversial figure.

In the CDA its quite a mudpit with Hugo de Jonge, the Health Minister praised somewhat for his response after taking up the role impromptu, coming up against Mona Keijzer. A lot of the debate within CDA revolves around whether to contemplate another government with the far right if it comes up. Keijzer refuses to rule out cooperation with FVD, De Jonge is jesuit about his refusal - "I can't envisage working with them". Keijzer is the more right-wing candidate though and already took on the CDA establishment in 2012. Wop Hoekstra was also touted as a favorite as he is fast becoming a figurehead of the harsh tone the Netherlands has adopted towards Southern countries wanting Corona-aid in the form of grants rather than loans-with-conditions. But he said he was "more of a manager" than a political leader and wants to stay in his position.

Lilian Marijnissen was named as SP list leader as was Esther Owehand for the PvdD, replacing Thieme.

I assume the rest will largely stay unchanged :

VVD : Rutte can do what he wants, he's walking on water right now, even if some of his base still might want to emerge one day and try to backstab him again. But he's always had an eye on Europe.
PVV : basically a front for Wilders but will be interesting to see what succession plan he has.
FVD : see PVV, but for Baudet.
GroenLinks : Klaver and his newfound base, judging by the strange videos he releases. continues to believe in the Jessiah complex. He should be in a strong position as official left-wing opposition but could be the flop of the election IMO.
PvdA : not sure what the internal workings are looking like, but their strong EP electoral performance has renewed spirits and Asscher was never blamed for their troubles.

And then the smaller parties whose troubles have been documented here.


Still, a year is a long time in politics and there could be some more backstabbing.

[Zinneke]

Interesting how the Dutch are the most positive towards their colonial heritage.

EDIT : should add that the CDA "leadership" race is 4 way now. At least officially. Martin Van Hijlvert is representing the Limburg branch and anti-Randstad ticket in a sense. Pieter Omzigt is also against the party establishment, more than Kijzer, but somewhat more populist/anti-government. 

[Zinneke]

De Jonge wins the CDA leadership contest.

1rst round
De Jonge 49%
Omtzigt 37%
Keijzer 11%

2nd round
De Jonge 50.7%
Omtzigt 49.3%
only a hundred odd votes difference

[Zinneke]

De Jonge wins the CDA leadership contest.

1rst round
De Jonge 49%
Omtzigt 37%
Keijzer 11%

2nd round
De Jonge 50.7%
Omtzigt 49.3%
only a hundred odd votes difference

Can we expect turn to the center, or wikipedia is far from truth?

Compared to Buma : he's more "urban" as a Rotterdamer and thus might be more progressive-minded on some issues.

Compared to his rivals : a lot of the campaign was about whether to co-operate with FvD and Keijzer was open about her willingness to work with FvD if necessary. De Jonge works well with parties to his right but doesn't want to work with FvD.

Expect the CDA (and the whole spectrum tbh) to shift rightwards though on Europe and the economy, there is no question there is a sort of national close ranks mentality over the demands of the southern countries vs the frugal four that the Netherlands leads...and you can be sure that Rutte and De Jonge/Hoekstra will compete on that same message of "no grants, only loans with conditionality" so soon after the pandemic recovery package. If they fail in swerving right on that, it leaves Wilders and Baudet with an open goal.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/1287380035838648323

Rutte appears to have got away, only just, with the EU deal despite there being a pretty strong national consensus that the strict approach is the right approach and that right-wingers think he could have been stricter.

[Zinneke]

Maurice de Hond poll

Momentum swinging from VVD to PVV although I imagine margin of error is being abused a bit for a headline. Corona and what happened at EU level could undo Rutte's goodwill. I heard that the situation in the NL was just as bad as Belgium regarding Corona but that there was a much laxer reporting of the cases.

[Zinneke]

Kaag chosen as D66 list leader. She did eventually have token opposition in the form of Ton Visser. A guy with er...interesting ideas.

[Zinneke]

been a while since we had maps to look at

obesity rates vs socio-economic status

https://twitter.com/CardioTamara/status/1305045619350933504

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/pete-hoekstra-us-ambassador-under-fire-for-hosting-dutch-far-right-bash/

[Zinneke]

New polls in the Netherlands (Maurice de Hond)



Rather stable in the short term, but from a previous election perspective its quite clear D66 and CDA are being punished as so many have for being junior partners while Rutte gleams in the limelight. He has announced he will run again as list leader and candidate for Prime Minister. I think its fair to say he is one of the shrewdest political operators the country has seen for a while, given the difficult circumstances he has had to negotiate. The far right resurgence likely has to do with the Netherlands first real dose of hard lockdown. Note the new party : Code Oranje. Here is their (hilariously badly written, given how well the Dutch speak English) description on their website

Code Orange is a new political movement in the Netherlands, aiming to evolve the state of our democracy. The name Code Orange has two meanings.

First: when heavy weather is predicted and storms are coming, our weatherbroadcast speaks of Code Orange (the next phase is Code Red). With that association in mind we speak of Code Orange in our political system. More and more people decide not to vote at all, vote out of protest or do not vote wholeheartedly. Our analysis: the political system does not fit anymore with the mindset of our citizens. Years of education and emancipation, but also the transition into an age of information, asks for evolving forms of democracy.

Co-Democracy
This brings us to the second meaning of Code Orange. Code stands for Co-democracy: the democracy of coöperation and cocreation. New forms of on- and offline consultation, citizins assemblees and (p)referenda are knocking on our door to enrich the traditional representative democratic practices.

Code Orange points out these new democratic forms, which give our citizins the possibility to have more influence on their surroundings and on government policies than ‘one vote in four years’. In our modern society a representative vote for a political party is not enough. Citizins want more influence than that. The political systeem needs to be completed; needs te evolve. That is the plea of Code Orange.

People initiatives
In many city’s in our country, and in neighbouring countries as well, local initiatives and local government are succesfully experimenting with these new and transparant democratic forms. People initiatives are popping up more and more. The amount of cities organising citizins assemblees grow every day.

Code Orange strives to lift this movement up to the regional, national en European schale. Therefore people in the Netherlands now can vote for a movement that wants to increase their power and influence. At the last elections one out of houndred voters made this choice! Perhaps this is an idea for your country (or city) as well?

They seem to want a more localist platform and attract big shot lawyers, the type that really usually start their own “movement” alongside their practice.

[Zinneke]

Thanks for the clarifications, freek. I didn't realise Code Oranje was De Mos's vehicle. I just saw some headlines about how they were attracting the lawyer frat types.

I think Wilders has always had a talent for being more clear-sighted and an internal consistency with his views than Baudet, and indeed most far right European politicians. It explains his somewhat remarkable comeback and Baudet's collapse.

[Zinneke]

https://www.europenowjournal.org/2020/11/09/the-urban-rural-divide-in-political-attitudes-in-the-netherlands/

[Zinneke]

There were local elections in a few localities in Groningen province and North Brabant.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/11/local-elections-pass-coronavirus-test-turnout-hardly-affected/

A number of local elections in Groningen and Noord-Brabant on Wednesday have tested the way forward for coronavirus-proof voting ahead of next March’s national vote, officials said on Thursday. The elections were called because of boundary changes and in all cases turnout was close to levels recorded in the last local elections in 2018, showing people were still happy to vote. In Groningen, three local authorities – Appingedam, Loppersum and Delfzijl – have been merged into a single region with the name Eemsdelta. Turnout was 44% and local parties won 11 seats on the new council, followed by Labour on five. Local parties also topped the polls in various Brabant local authority areas, including Vucht and Boxtel, where boundary changes have led to a rejig of council coverage. In total, 115,000 people were able to vote on Wednesday, with turnout averaging around 50%. The Netherlands goes to the polls to elect a new government next March and a number of measures are being taken to ensure that coronavirus does not have an impact. These include keeping some polling stations open for three days to spread voting and allowing some people to vote by mail.

Read more at DutchNews.nl:

Meanwhile both the SP and the FvD were in the headlines for all the wrong reasons: SP had to expel some members for conspiracy to commit violent revolution and the FvD expelled the whistle blowers(!) in their youth wing for sharing the anti-semitic comments on their whatsapp groups to the press.

[Zinneke]

and the FvD expelled the whistle blowers(!) in their youth wing for sharing the anti-semitic comments on their whatsapp groups to the press.

B-bUt....AnTi-SeMiTiSm Is OnLy FoUnD oN tHe LeFt ThEsE dAyS!!??!!!11!!!!??!!

As a reminder they kicked out the anti-semites too...but yeah the optics aren't great. Their claim is probably centred around the idea that you shouldn't doxx people on what are supposed to be private chats where people should be allowed to have a "dark sense of humour"...at the same time I don't think youth wings need to be a necessary place for locker room talk, let alone jokes about Anne Frank on cocaine.

FvD will always find it difficult to reconcile the respectable RWPP more boomer voters that flocked to them during the hype because of Baudet's intellectual style with the younger ones that brought the party forward (along with almost certainly a bunch of Russian assets involved) that were there for the "dank memes" and have links to clear sighted neo-fascist movements in Europe. Whereas before the PVV vs FVD map was pretty straightforward (basically a similar map of GL vs SP and FVD winning more LPF areas than PVV did at their peak) this time round it will be interesting to see who stuck with FVD and who bailed for Wilders or Code Oranje (with some also going back to Rutte I imagine).

[Zinneke]

Baudet has resigned as leader of the FvD and as lijstrekker too.

Here's an insight into the factional war ongoing :

https://twitter.com/SLdeLange/status/1330830292106547206

EDIT : jeron beat me to it

Regarding the far left, I think there's also a lot of grassroots organisations in industrial communities that vote SP out of resignation more than anything, but maintain their party structure at local level.

[Zinneke]

Meanwhile, Thierry Baudet stands down as FVD party leader as a result of the antisemitism and nazism crisis within the party. Many people within the party, including MP’s, asked Baudet to force the leader of the party’s youth wing and number 7 on its electoral list Freek Jansen to stand down. Apparently Baudet was not prepared to do so.

How definite does it seem?
From what I can read in Telegraaf, he is resigning as the name on the top of the list (who represents the party in election TV and so on, I believe), but that he will remain as party leader and probably still run at the election, so he could be elected via preference votes.

He may present himself as a list pusher he said, which implies he doesn't actually want to be elected. Its unclear about the presidency too because NOS for example has the headline as no longer "lijstrekker en leider meer" but then put this at the end.

De 37-jarige Baudet is behalve Kamerlid ook partijvoorzitter van Forum voor Democratie. Volgens een woordvoerder is er binnen het partijbestuur afgesproken dat hij de functie blijft vervullen. Waarschijnlijk komen er binnenkort lijsttrekkersverkiezingen.

"will continue to fulfill the function [of president of the FvD]."

[Zinneke]

Cas Mudde on the FvD implosion :

https://www.sv.uio.no/c-rex/english/news-and-events/right-now/2020/from-wilders-to-baudet-and-back-to-wilders-again.html

What Changed?

Why was this one scandal too far? Accusations of antisemitism and racism have followed Baudet, and several of his now challengers (like Senator Annabel Nanninga), for years. He has warned against the “homeopathic thinning” of the Dutch people and has used the (Nazi) term “Boreal world”. And he has met with Jean-Marie Le Pen in Paris in 2009 and with notorious American racist Jared Taylor in Amsterdam in 2017. In other words, this was far from the worst scandal for the party and for Baudet himself.

What has changed is that the Dutch media has lost its fascination with Baudet. Bored by the one-dimensionality of far-right mainstay Geert Wilders, one of the few Dutch political leaders without a university degree, the Dutch media was enamored by the attractive, eccentric, and self-confident Baudet. Moreover, expressing a deep-seated classism, they trivialized his racist and sexist statements as “provocations” of a “frat boy” – after all, how could some like “us”, a university-educated white man, be a racist? But with time it became increasingly difficult to deny the racism and sexism, while Baudet became more and more hostile towards the media.

In many ways, Baudet is just a rehash of Pim Fortuyn, the right-wing populist trailblazer that started the mainstreaming and normalization of far-right opinions and parties in the Netherlands. Like Baudet, Fortuyn was eccentric and university-educated, “our kind of people”, which helped him overcome accusations of racism in the broader establishment and media. Fortuyn was tragically assassinated shortly before the 2002 election, which made him the Jimmie Hendrix of Dutch politics; i.e. he died at his prime. Undoubtedly, had Fortuyn lived to lead his List Pim Fortuyn, LPF, his personality would have caused a party implosion too.

I would disagree with Mudde though here. What changed was the demographic was directly targeted  on any accusation targeted, and that even though JFVD had links with Erkenband they had plausible deniability. Here they were caught red handed, a lot like how in Flanders the Schild & Vrienden movement was. The contrast in reactions is damning though : De Wever kicked out S&V immediately but was politically punished for it. Here it remains to be seen but the general reaction is : "what a load of neo-nazi tossers" and the party is in dissaray.

What's more, I pointed out the structural issues with the Dutch far right before. One is that very particular brand of political entrepreneurs inspired by Fortuyn that seek to pretend to build an organic political movement but end up running it like a court. Wilders was smart enough though to not even bother with the whole movement thing. 2 members : himself and his organization. That's the only way the Dutch far right can work. It helps that Wilders, although unhinged in some aspects, can work the Hague circuit well.

Its true that Baudet had become a bit stale, and that his resignation is, as some are speculating, a way to refresh his credentials as the rude frat boy kicked out of his party again.  I don't think its the main reason for his departure.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1330955716694257666
W E W
E
W

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1330955716694257666
W E W
E
W

Could you help those who can’t speak Dutch pls, thx.

google translate does the job but the main significance is Wilders actually commenting on a competitor, and his condescending tone yet blatant attempt to attract certain FvD types. He could have stuck the knife in further and signalled his disgust at antisemitism (which is one of his strongest "yeah but" arguments when accused of being a neo-fascist), but here he is actively taking the side of Baudet, most likely for electoral purposes.

[Zinneke]

Baudet stays on as FVD leader btw.

[Zinneke]

Hugo de Jonge withdraws as CDA Lijstrekker to focus on Corona policy. Likely due to the burnout experience of his predecessor. New elections expected at CDA then. Omzigt must be favorite.