Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Zinneke]

Hoekstra has become the campaign leader.

[Zinneke]

Been noticed a lot on Dutch political twitter how the Den Haag circuit seem to have adopted Hoekstra as a darling much quicker than De Jonge, and that this has some undertones of a classism that goes relatively unnoticed in the Netherlands. Hoekstra is of a more traditional elite background (well very elite background - Leiden law faculty that seems hell bent in running the country, then McKinsey, and ever present Shell), De Jonge went to a technical school. This is ending up looking like a party stitch up from the powers that be to close observers but low info voters might see Hoekstra as a strong challenger to Rutte as to who can live up to the Dutch tight-fisted stereotype (no cents more to the pensionado countries, etc..)

[Zinneke]

New topic for the election or can a mod change the thread title?

Anyway 89 parties have registered their names to be on the ballot. They have to submit lists and other official documents.

FvD's breakaway is called JA21 (Yes21)

The full list of the new parties :

Lijst Henk Krol
OPRECHT
Directe Democratie Partij
HET NIEUWE GELUID (HNG)
Idr1
Algemene Politieke Partij Nederland
Partij voor Ontwikkeling
Splinter
NIDA
Liberaal Nederland
JA21
Partij Zonder Naam
het Zetel Genootschap
Wij zijn Nederland
KINDPARTIJ
Blije Burgers
Volksbesluit
INL
Politieke Partij Nexus
Samen Sterk (USM)
EVERT!
Partij van de Eenheid
Partij voor de Kinderbelangen
Partij voor de Republiek
Nuchter Nederland
De Jongeren Partij


I'll do a rundown of those on the ballot when it is confirmed.

[Zinneke]

By the way, the Netherlands is the last country in the EU to be starting vaccinations and its fair to say the government is taking quite a bit of heat because of it. The Tweede Kamer has been recalled and there is going to be a lot of grandstanding by the opposition as to why this fiasco happened (especially when you consider NL's reputation).

Hugo De Jonghe admitted they could have vaccinated faster, but he also rightly pointed out that a lot of countries have only started a symbolic media campaign and that the Netherlands was waiting to make sure everything was in place for an efficient vaccination programme.

 I expect CDA and VVD to suffer the polls because of this.  


Also Theo Hiddema has now left the FvD finding its platform too populist and orientated towards the Coronavirus crisis. THis now leaves the FvD as a Baudet personality vehicle, and he'll have nothing to lose. Don't count him out yet, he's proven to be an effective campaigner that can outflank Wilders, who has a more "old school" approach to the Den Haag circuit.

[Zinneke]

It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1349462149274492930

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1349462149274492930

I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?

Yeah, great infighting and attempt to kick out Baudet from leadership after really stupid affair with him ranting about music in restaurant during party meeting as I remember correctly. And some issues with youth organisation and probably some more stuff we dont know.

Is there any consensus on where the FvD supporters redistributed? It doesn't seem like any single party obviously benefitted, unless I'm just missing it

Given it looked like PVV were the ones heading for 3 seats rather than FvD only two years ago when there were provincial elections...it's quite obvious the bulk has gone (back) to Wilders.

The more intellectual Right populist types who don't like Baudet have found new homes in the form of Code Oranje and now JA21

I think the more obscure question is where have the 50+ voters gone. And there's an obviously dark joke there about Corona  but still...

[Zinneke]

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html

Yeah I'm surprised this has blown up so quickly...freek described it here :

It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).

Also an important issue is something which is probably best translated as the 'tax benefits scandal'. In short: after some fraud cases regarding the handing out social benefits, very strict anti-fraud laws were implemented. Turns out, these laws had unintended consequences: harsh treatment of 'fraud cases' as a missing signature on a form or a mother who supplied her child on benefits with some groceries once in a while. In many cases, tens of thousands of euros had to be repaid.

Both the Tax Agency (which handed out the benefits and handled the fraud cases) and the government were not very helpful in supplying relevant information to those who were affected, and to parliament. This may have some consequences the following weeks, resignation of the government is not out of the picture.

Basically the government could resign as a whole and them continue on as a current affairs government. But there's a fear that a minor party uses it as an electoral issue to leave the government altogether, and properly. They seem to have decided to stick together though : either we all resign and become current affairs or we all stay on.


2 Ministers are named in the report and one of them is Wopke Hoekstra. D66 are desperate to get rid of him politically by forcing "political consequences" upon the Cabinet and getting him to resign. Eric Wiebes is the other one.

Klaver Will submit a no confidence vote with support from SP and...PVV!

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1349462149274492930

I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?

Yeah, great infighting and attempt to kick out Baudet from leadership after really stupid affair with him ranting about music in restaurantand the Jews during party meeting as I remember correctly. And some issues with a Neo-Nazi youth organisation and probably some more stuff we dont know.

FTFY

[Zinneke]

I get that it was simmering for years but the government looked secure and now parties are threatening to walk...we were so close to an actual functioning more than two party coalition reaching its end point.

So, are PvdA finally gonna draft Timmermans in I wonder...that leadership election should be interesting. Aboutaleb would also be a good choice.

[Zinneke]

There is a first victim: PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher just resigned. When he was Minister for Social Affairs (2012-2017), he was responsible for implementing these anti-fraud laws. There had been calls in the party for weeks  that he had to resign.

New PvdA leader is Lilianne Ploumen, until now #3 on the candidates list. Ploumen is an MP at the moment, and used to be the Foreign Trade minister 2012-2017.

Could you tell maybe something more about her? Would her leadership bring some major changes?

Its a slightly more progressive choice than Asscher, the press says. She is also the daughter of a milkman and has a strong feminist tinge that could tap into electorates that were sizing up Kaag. But apart from that its been received in a lukewarm manner. PvdA had 3 very obvious people including one who led a campaign that, albeit with low turnout, they actually won.  The fact that they all turn it down says something...

[Zinneke]

What is the cause of the recent riots in the Netherlands?

the curfew which is a controversial high political issue too.

[Zinneke]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

No it should not, as the current threshold ensures a variety of representation in a deeply pillarised society.

Hasn't been like that for a couple decades now, which is exactly the problem. In the era of pillarization, you could have a dozen parties in parliament and the system would still handle it because every party's support was stable and everyone knew what to expect.

Anyway, 5% wouldn't solve anything. The problem isn't small parties getting in with 0.x% of the vote; it's the overabundance of mid-sized parties that have no other option but to govern with the sole major party; but that party, unlike the old CDA, isn't centrist and you end up with ideologically incoherent coalitions and compromises that make all sides dissatisfied.

Rutte III though I think most would have been satisfied with their term up until Corona and the benefits scandal, with the possible exception of D66 voters who abandoned them. I'm not sure what those PvdA --> D66 voters expected though.

[Zinneke]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

No it should not, as the current threshold ensures a variety of representation in a deeply pillarised society.

Hasn't been like that for a couple decades now, which is exactly the problem. In the era of pillarization, you could have a dozen parties in parliament and the system would still handle it because every party's support was stable and everyone knew what to expect.

Anyway, 5% wouldn't solve anything. The problem isn't small parties getting in with 0.x% of the vote; it's the overabundance of mid-sized parties that have no other option but to govern with the sole major party; but that party, unlike the old CDA, isn't centrist and you end up with ideologically incoherent coalitions and compromises that make all sides dissatisfied.

Rutte III though I think most would have been satisfied with their term up until Corona and the benefits scandal, with the possible exception of D66 voters who abandoned them. I'm not sure what those PvdA --> D66 voters expected though.

On that note: what has Rutte III actually done?

Here you have proof they are happy plus the reasons :

1. economy still thriving which is no mean feat.
2. thorny issue of pensions
3. coronavirus response up until the curfew (which is and will be divisive) was generally seemingly "good" in the eyes of most - although i have my doubts on that.
4. A sense of direction and continuity - but then that's somewhat outdated a view too due to the resignation. A reminder that not so long ago it was deemed virtually impossible for a Dutch government to serve a full term.


https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/17/people-satisfied-rutte-iii-cabinet

The benefits scandal is what it is but no one party seems to be able to take political capital out of it, just individuals who investigated it.

[Zinneke]

New poll by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond. Hardly any movement compared to last week. First time any pollster is polling Volt above the threshold. Code Oranje is apparently hovering just below it.

Be aware that De Hond is not the most credible pollster, and tends to exaggerate trends.

Would Volt ever pass, though? Surely D66 covers the base for the really really pro-EU people.

Volt received 106k votes in the European elections, nearly 2%. There is some potential.

Still, I don't expect Volt to gain a seat. Typical Volt voters will probably vote strategically D66 (or GroenLinks) in a higher stakes event as the national elections.

Volt is the perfect candidate for a certain type of disgruntled D66 voter though.
And if there is a battle to meet the threshold between them and Code Oranje, the politically engaged (who tend to vote for those two kind of parties) might "lend" their votes.

I'm just saying this to get a bit of excitement going, because so far the campaign is lacklustre for obvious reasons.

[Zinneke]

37 parties on the ballot, a new record.

1. VVD
2. PVV
3. CDA
4. D66
5. GroenLinks
6. SP
7. Partij van de Arbeid
8. ChristenUnie
9. Partij voor de Dieren
10. 50Plus
11. Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
12. Denk
13. Forum voor Democratie
14. Bij1
15. JA21
16. Code Oranje
17. Volt
18. Nida
19. Piratenpartij
20. LP Libertaire Partij
21. Jong
22. Splinter
23. BBB
24. NL Beter
25. Lijst Henk Krol
26. Oprecht
27. Jezus Leeft
28. Trots op Nederland
29. Ubuntu Connected Front
30. Blanco lijst
31. Partij van de Eenheid
32. De Feestpartij
33. Vrij en Sociaal Nederland
34. Wij Zijn Nederland
35. Modern Nederland
36. De Groenen
37. Partij voor de Republiek

[Zinneke]

they need move the thershold up to 5% no way should a party under 1% of the vote be awared a seat

I think a cornerstone of democracy is incumbents being able to lose. If you extend this idea to its maximum, you must allow a platform for small parties to develop, and be represented and have a platform. In this sense I would again defend the Dutch electoral system. Their governments may be unstable but their institutions have remained strong. Belgium has the 5% threshold (simplyfing things here) plus districts...we're far more in chaos, politically speaking, than our northern brethren despite having pretty strong fragmentation (and yes, I know, the ethnic divide plays, but so does the complacency of our incumbent parties, whereas in the NL the government parties do genuinely fear the grassroots).

FVD might be a Russian psy op that went to sh**t, LPF might have been a mess too, but their successes, SP's success in 2006, PvdD and their success etc are examples of democracy in action.

[Zinneke]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

[Zinneke]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

Sounds significant - was this expected?

It is significant from the little I have read. Government basically bypassed parliament when they shouldn't have. The lockdowns do not constitute an urgent situation where government would be allowed to enact such a measure without parliament. And parliament is much more divided over the curfew than government.

Expected - sort of. I think you are going to see a lot of courts take governments to task over measures that don't pass the standards their predecessors wrote. IU think we have seen other occasions in Spain and Germany. I also thought the curfew in Brussels was basically illegal. The problem is, of course, that the anti-curfew movement here is basically hijacked by the Covid-deniers and anti-lcokdown crowd that can't argue a case without looking unhinged.

[Zinneke]

Stuk Rood Vlees are running a great series on the demographics of each party in the Netherlands, by Matthias Rooduijn. Here he shows that D66 voters are mostly yuppies and right-wing on the economy.

https://twitter.com/mrooduijn/status/1362316844019892227

his other articles on the smaller parties are already posted : https://stukroodvlees.nl/author/matthijs-rooduijn/

The FvD one was interesting because of the comparison between their vote and PVV. FvD's median voter was almost identical to PVV's but for education level. There's a hint of FvD being what Anne Applebaum described in her recent book, a party for people on the cusp of the very top but not getting there and wanting to overthrow it as a result, whilst PVV is just generally more anti-elites.

[Zinneke]

Klaver being sensationally bold and trying to revive something similar to the 1972 pact between PvdA, D66 and the Radical Party - by trying to get all the "progressive" movement commit to a post-electoral pact. GL have just released this poster :



Referring to the names of the 4 party leaders of the progressive parties.

Typically it was dismissed by the other 3 as they want to keep their cards close to their chest, and SP and D66 are laughably incompatible anyway as Lilian Marijnessen has already suggested. However, it is pretty unprecedented that party leaders make such bold moves to commit to their preferred coalition. Klaver did so last general election during a debate but it was after the question had been asked.

It could also be cynically be seen as Klaver wanting to put women forward in politics as his party, usually the standard bearers of Dutch feminism, are the only one of those parties not running a woman and thus not highlighting that fact. Kaag especially is towing the "I can be the first woman PM in the Netherlands"-line although she is to her credit also highlighting that she is qualified for her role, perhaps more than some of the brashful fratboys .

SP are facing more internal strife due to their decision to expel their youth members for excessive revolutionary rhetoric (see last month). ROOD, their youth wing, have since re-instated these members to their board. So SP's youth wing has now non-SP members in their board, and its not the first time the youth wings gain agency from the party in Dutch politics recently. See : D66 and FvD.  

On the right, Rutte has called parties not to make too many electoral promises for ending lockdowns . Baudet is busy questioning the Nuremburg trials and their legitimacy after WW2 (if that isnt a dog whistle I dont know what is) while trying to distinguish himself from Wilders over Corona policy, saying that Wilders is going along with the Cabinet's doctrine. CDA are struggling to find airtime, they want a 1 vs 1 with Rutte clearly but he isn't biting. The wiley election master is managing the media how he wants.  

[Zinneke]

There was a first round of debates this week on NOS op 3 youtube with a focus on young people (its the "yoof" channel) and all parties in parliament + 3 small ones. Followed by the Big One on RTL Nieuws last night, with the top 6 (Rutte, Wilders, Hoekstra, Klaver, Marijnissen, Kaag).

Wilders turned NOS op 3 down so Rutte was able to just take in the questions on his own. Klaver and Marijnissen were paired which was a bit of a love in, as was Kaag and Segers. Ploumen and Hoekstra offered more of a contrast  Baudet and Denk leader Farid Azarkan had arguably the most confrontational/entertaining one, and the most interesting was the one with Bij1, VOLT and JA21. Nanninga was a last minute replacement for JA21 and I thought she did quite well.


Because I watched the NOS op 3 debates I didn't watch all of the big one yesterday night, on RTL Nieuws, I just saw clips. On the debate stage there was no PvdA as mentioned previously. Instead though you had Rutte for the first time in a while having to face the Left, Wilders as well as CDA all on one platform. His tetchyest moment of the night though came when a victim of the benefits scandal confronted him head on about it.

Kaag for D66 looked like the surprise of the night but I guess that's also because she was a bit of an unknown quantity.
Marijnissen was good.
Klaver was a little dissapointing, rehearsed and he got the national football team manager wrong. I never understood the Jessiah movement. I thought he was in a solid position last time and bombed the debates too.

Wilders was witty and caricatural but that will bring out the base for him. Remains to be seen how he does vs FvD and JA21. I still think Baudet's more conspiracy/party kartel approach plus full corona scepticism means he is underpolled and perform better than expected from people turning down pollsters or just thinking on the day to vote against measures.


One thing of note though from my outsider's perspective was how the spectrum has drifted left on economics, quite considerably. All of them are in favour of higher taxes on the rich for repaying Corona debt, and Wilders for example was really banging in points about Rutte's austerity.

[Zinneke]

What was the logic behind having a debate with the top 6 parties? It appears that there's a much bigger gap between 7th and 8th than between 6th and 7th.

Some campaign news:

Bad news for PvdA, their party is not invited for the first televised election debate 28th of February. The 6 largest party (VVD, PVV, CDA, D66, GL and SP) calculated from 2017 and current polls.

However, the PvdA is invited for the EenVandaag debate on 15th of March 2 days before the official election date and on the first early voting day, where the SP is not invited as they invited only the 6 largest party according to the polls.

The debates will be more important than usual as parties are limited to campaign caused by Covid-19

I don't know why they chose 6 either but I guess it just gets overcrowded otherwise.

[Zinneke]

Great poster from the party advocating a republic



"Kroonvirus" --> Crownvirus

didn't realise they also advocated a European Republic

definitely have my vote

[Zinneke]

Maybe a ballot redesign could be a good idea for the next election

https://twitter.com/casperkalb/status/1367507305445675008

Dangerously based.