2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Blair]

Without being abused can someone give me a rational case for why that stupid needle still favours Biden in Georgia?

[Blair]

Appreciate we might know but is there any news about the timeframe for Michigan?

I feel I can sit marginally more comfortable if I know that both Michigan & Wisconin have leads..

[Blair]

The Wisconsin Democrat party deserves a lot of credit.

They've worked their asses off since 2016, won important state wide races & hopefully have done just enough to save this.

[Blair]

The Wisconsin Democrat party deserves a lot of credit.

They've worked their asses off since 2016, won important state wide races & hopefully have done just enough to save this.

I am however looking forward to the bi-annual sh**tting on the Florida Democratic Party; although they at least to their credit did warn about this happening (while clearly doing nothing since 2018)

[Blair]

Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

Yeah a leadershipt team exclusively of 70+ year olds who've all been in D.C since 1980 is really not good after a night like this; I'm curious to see how the Senate/House campaigns get blamed. I'm generally of the view that the national figures drive this but it seems both Schumer & Pelosi were far too bullish

[Blair]

Any hope for Gary Peters?

[Blair]

FWIW there was a lot of chatter in the last week that both sides had the race as level & that Gideon hadn't put Collins away.

I wonder if this was the type of race that needed a really top tier recruit (who might not have existed?) rather than just a generic state leader.

[Blair]

There seems to be a worrying amount of confusion with Arizona; some saying that because it's EV that was returned the day before or on election day it could skewer Trump but equally some people are saying that it's fine because the most of it is maricopa county.

After I've stopped worrying about Michigan can somone reassure me Arizona isn't going to f*** us from behind?

[Blair]

FWIW that thread from Nate Cohn goes on to say he thinks Biden still narrowly will survive

[Blair]

Sorry to be annoying I've just woken up and can't see a good summary of the nights counting; what's the current situation?

[Blair]

Thanks everyone! I assumed both Arizona dumps would be done by the time I was awake but the delays seem to have impacted it; do we still not know how Arizona is going to go & how these late ballots are going?

[Blair]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

[Blair]

My uninformed take on the Arizona dump (which gave Trump +10K) is that the last dump was okay for Trump but not enough to say he's now on course to win Arizona.

[Blair]

It worries me that Pam Bondi was once a State Attorney General

[Blair]

Remember when we actually had a case of voter fraud in North Carolina- what party was it again?

[Blair]

FWIW Rick Scott over-performing in 2018 makes me think this is also a story of very good republican outreach (combined with lackluster democratic rebuttal)

[Blair]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

President-elect Joe Biden. God, I love that.

Do you really? Or do you just like that the democrats will be back in the white house?

Most democrats I know, all agree that Biden is an awful candidate on the basis that after 47 years he's still achieved nothing in politics, is likely taking corrupt money from foreign governments and changes his positions on core policies to suit the mood.

This is a thread to discuss election results. To keep ourselves sane we go off topic & joke around but please don't just post stupid talking points- you're not on the sunday shows.

[Blair]

can someone do an idiots guide to the remaining Georgia counties?

[Blair]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

Yeah, I know it's trendy for everyone to absolutely hate Tim Kaine and call him the worst VP pick ever, but I wonder if the latino result in this election helps vindicate the Kaine pick somewhat.  You may have thought it was goofy, but Kaine made a real effort to reach out to latinos.  Kaine was out there in AZ/FL giving speeches entirely in fluent spanish.

I hear you, but I'm pretty sure Biden's dropoff among Hispanics went far deeper than the fact Tim Kaine speaks Spanish.

And despite the late Clinton admin's problems with Florida Cubans iirc both Clintons were extremely popular with the hispanic community (someone will correct me but I think she did very well in the '08 primary with them too)

[Blair]

I've also said it before but the democratic joy of infighting & navel gazing makes it too easy to see this as solely a democratic failure; rather than a democratic failure & good republican outreach work

[Blair]

Time mangement post; is there a chance of any significant news in the next 10 hours? (aka when I'm in bed)

[Blair]

John King on CNN said Chatham County has 17K outstanding votes; my bad math shows that 60% of that alone gets Biden over the line...

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324474674521219073?s=21

Also I’m hearing AP and Fox calls of GA and NV are possibly imminent.

Curious where that's from?

[Blair]

I've woken up and beyond a raving Trump press conference nothing seems to have happened. From a quick skim PA is still taking years & Georgia is going to come down to about a 1000 votes either way right?

[Blair]

Whats the current consensus on Arizona?