2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night 

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

I think it's more that people want the election to be done and over with by tonight.  If Biden wins Florida (or Georgia or NC), that will almost certainly be the case. 

I think if Biden wins Florida, the election is likely over. He'd need to run the table on all of the other states, and the polls would have to be even more wrong than in 2016 for him to carry Michigan and Wisconsin again

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I voted by mail and have not driven by any polling places here in Charleston, SC, but I may do that at lunch to see how things look for Jamie Harrison

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I mean, I don't know what to make of all the data. All I will say is that if Trump wins re-election, it's time to stop polling these races.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The insane delusion from Trump supporters this entire cycle about this election being a safe Trump win has been unlike anything I've ever seen. Betting on Trump winning NY, CA, etc. It's unbelievable how many MAGA people think Trump is going to easily win this tonight. That's all I have to say for now.

They've already been conditioned to think anything less than a Trump landslide is due to voter fraud, and if Biden does emerge victorious, you'll be hearing the cries of fraud for at least the next 4 years.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

How worried should we be about a faithless elector if Biden wins 270-268?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Is Susan Collins a lock to win re-election? Just woke up recently

88% of Portland is in, so I'd say she's going to survive.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The failure of the Democratic Party in the last two presidential elections is really mind-blowing. It looks like Trump's claim of "socialism" really did work - although I tend to think AOC and her squad is actually a negative for the Democrats and not a positive. Their brand of politics simply does not play well nationwide.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Joe Biden has now broken the 69.5 million raw vote record set by Barack Obama in 2008, becoming the most voted presidential candidate in history. Trump is also on track to break it, presumably becoming the second most voted candidate in history.

More Americans have preferred the Democratic candidate for the fourth election in a row, the longest streak since the New Deal.

With the way demographics are shifting, it really does look like we will be seeing more and more winning presidential candidates losing the popular vote. Whether that motivates either side to change now EVs are allocated - who knows, but I am not hopeful anything will change.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Hopefully, if all goes well, Biden wins PA by nearly 100,000 votes, which will be enough to avoid things being tied up in court and will win him the election.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I have a feeling this election is far from over unless Biden somehow can win PA by 100k+ votes

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

To those saying Biden will be a lame duck - this election is about getting rid of Trump, who is a threat to American democracy. I can live with Biden and a GOP Senate.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

To those saying Biden will be a lame duck - this election is about getting rid of Trump, who is a threat to American democracy. I can live with Biden and a GOP Senate.

It’s not the ideal scenario, but it’s a lot better than what we’ve had the past four years.

The only realistic alternative at this stage is 4 more years of Trump... so I'll take what we can get.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If NV counts their remaining votes, we very well may have a winner tonight. Of course, Trump is going to file all kinds of lawsuits, but I think this is over - especially if Biden does pull ahead by 100k votes in PA.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What is taking states so long to count votes? I understand some are waiting for more ballots, but PA has only moved 8% today or something. I'm glad NV and AZ are going to, hopefully, finish or at least update us tonight

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

You’re looking at his strategy for the next 4 years. Claim the election was stolen, undermine our electoral process. Hell, Putin doesn’t even need to intervene. Trump is doing all the work for him

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I imagine the Trump campaign will continue to file lawsuits throughout the day, but I do not see any of them being successful because, as most know, you need evidence of fraud to be successful. Merely saying there is widespread fraud will not cut it.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I imagine the Trump campaign will continue to file lawsuits throughout the day, but I do not see any of them being successful because, as most know, you need evidence of fraud to be successful. Merely saying there is widespread fraud will not cut it.

The lawyer has spoken. Actually it is more about process than fraud I suspect. Not checking signatures  to see if they match for example is a process problem.

That makes sense too. I have not taken the time to check on what grounds these lawsuits are being filed on aside from the 53 late ballots that the Trump campaign alledges Georgia accepted.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I imagine the Trump campaign will continue to file lawsuits throughout the day, but I do not see any of them being successful because, as most know, you need evidence of fraud to be successful. Merely saying there is widespread fraud will not cut it.

Or, at the very least, it seems you would need a margin that is so small (we're talking less than a tenth of a percent), it's possible that a systematic reporting error could account for such a discrepancy. 

Exactly. Not that Team Trump will not try, but it will look even more frivolous to file lawsuits if the margin of victory, say, in PA, is over 150k votes.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What's funny is, if we stop counting all votes now, then Trump loses. Either all states count their votes or all states stop. Did we not learn anything from Bush v. Gore in 2000?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

People need to calm down. If the Trump campaign did get an injunction to stop counting votes, the court would not hold that and let the campaign announce it in dramatic fashion. We would already know.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

At this point, Biden just needs to hope AZ and NV are called for him and let PA, GA play out over the next few days. It's obvious they will not have all the votes counted by the end of the week.

In the meantime, Trump can keep filing lawsuits, but I imagine most, if not all, will be dismissed. His end game is likely the SCOTUS, where he thinks all the conservative wing will side with him and stop all vote counting. But he won't do that until/if he gets a lead in AZ.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What are the chances we're heading to another 2000?

The end game here for Trump is to push it to the SCOTUS, where he thinks the conservative justices, especially those he appointed, will rule in his favor.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Where's the big vote dump from PA?

Probably delayed because the Democrats appealed the court order to the PA Supreme Court. Now that the lower court decision was overturned, counting/number reporting should resume.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Yeah, I don't think we're going to have a winner announced until at least next week.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Yeah, I don't think we're going to have a winner announced until at least next week.

What? PA and GA are going to be done by tomorrow.

I mean, the networks won't call GA even when it's done because it'll be well within recount territory, but yeah, PA will put a definitive end to this once called.

Right. If PA does swing to Biden by the 100k+ margin people seem to think will happen, then it is over.