LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[IceSpear]

Lol, someone is desperate:

https://twitter.com/RepAbraham/status/1181646965773230080?s=20

Yeah, Republicans totally run on #KitchenTableIssues

In a sense, yes. They want Pelosi to go back to the kitchen table.

[IceSpear]

I have to be honest- I miss the anecdotal turnout reports that were usually wrong.

If it makes you happy, I saw a guy posting on twitter that there had been black people at his polling place, which he obviously saw as a good sign for JBE.

Yeah, but I saw on Twitter that someone saw a rain cloud in Baton Rouge. RIP JBE.

[IceSpear]

Have we gotten a Wulfric projection yet?

[IceSpear]

Is there a counting bias towards the GOP or towards Dems?

The former. Nothing is in from Caddo, Orleans, or Baton Rouge.

[IceSpear]

Let the record show I will happily admit I was wrong if JBE wins tonight. I wonder if the same can be said when Bevin crushes it in three weeks

Although JBE could still win, even tonight, his utter collapse in Acadiana makes me resigned to Bevin winning, since Appalachia has had similar voting patterns. Not a direct correlation, but worrying nonetheless.

True, but Kentucky has areas such as Oldham, Cincy burbs, Warren, Daviess, etc. Where Beshear could improve substantially on Conway.

Wait, you're finally admitting Trends Are Real?

[IceSpear]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE is doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

Wow, a Democrat during better in the suburbs and much worse in the rurals. What an unprecedented event in the modern political era. This one will go down in the history books.

[IceSpear]

Doesn't seem like there's enough votes left for JBE to crack 50% or for Abraham to overtake Rispone. Matchup looks set.

[IceSpear]

Doesn't seem like there's enough votes left for JBE to crack 50% or for Abraham to overtake Rispone. Matchup looks set.

Yeah, I’m not optimistic about this runoff unlike the people rating it Likely D or whatever. A month of Trump rallies in Louisiana? Yikes

I said this a year ago back when JBE had yuge leads and the CW was he was an Unbeatable Titan who would win in a landslide in round 1:

Now that Kennedy has declined to run I'd rate it a toss up. I think JBE is in decent shape to win considering he's pretty popular and the fact that he won't have the strongest challenger, but it's still Louisiana. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Abraham or whoever makes it a tight race once their name recognition goes up and they get a Trump endorsement. But for now if forced to bet I'd bet on JBE.

I was heavily mocked for rating this a toss up for the longest time, lol. I will now accept my accolades.

[IceSpear]

On the bright side, at least those clowns Dantzler/Landrieu didn't act as spoilers. That would've really pissed me off.

On another bright side, at least Abraham's hilariously desperate gambit to expel Pelosi failed miserably.

[IceSpear]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

Putting Louisiana aside, the fact that people genuinely, unironically thought this when Kentucky was on the board was utterly hilarious.

[IceSpear]

The Impeachment Crap from Democrats does one thing right from the GET-GO: Unite Republican Voters. Another month from D's with that sort of nonsense and Rispone might have a shot to pull this off.

This is gonna be a dumb, unprovable trope, isnt it?
Republicans turn out regardless.

I think two things can be true here:

1) JBE was not going to win in a megaultragigalandslide pre-impeachment, the vast majority of these Republicans were going to vote against him anyway.

2) Impeachment has galvanized the GOP base (see the early vote stats) and also helped them at the margins in a crimson red state.

[IceSpear]

Shocking to see rurals get even more Republican.

So so so very shocking.

Only Mensa level geniuses could've predicted it.

[IceSpear]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

But why is it that Hogan won by 11% last year, in a state that is just as heavily Democratic as Louisiana is Republican, while Edwards might lose?

Because despite popular belief, the Republican base is far more partisan and inflexible than the Democratic base.

This is why I always laugh at "BLIMPF RLY CULD LOSE BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!" hot takes.

[IceSpear]

The good news for JBE is that the combined Dem vote share will be over 48% and Dems have historically done better in Louisiana runoffs than in the jungle, but will that hold in the era of Trump rallies and impeachment inquiries? It might, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[IceSpear]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

If it were up to me, Democrats would be spending 90% of their money in the suburbs of Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, but instead we got fools giving $10 million to Amy McGrath and thinking we can beat Linday Gayham

mrw Tillis and the GOP nominee in GA win by <1 point and McGrath loses by 20:

[IceSpear]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

LMAO

JFC, didn't this guy AUTHOR the draconian abortion ban?!

[IceSpear]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

[IceSpear]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

No, Landrieu is a rightwinger who used the nygger word.

He’s not from the Democratic Landrieus in LA ...

And you think the people who voted for him know that? They probably just voted based off the last name.

[IceSpear]

Doesn't seem like there's enough votes left for JBE to crack 50% or for Abraham to overtake Rispone. Matchup looks set.

Yeah, I’m not optimistic about this runoff unlike the people rating it Likely D or whatever. A month of Trump rallies in Louisiana? Yikes

I said this a year ago back when JBE had yuge leads and the CW was he was an Unbeatable Titan who would win in a landslide in round 1:

Now that Kennedy has declined to run I'd rate it a toss up. I think JBE is in decent shape to win considering he's pretty popular and the fact that he won't have the strongest challenger, but it's still Louisiana. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Abraham or whoever makes it a tight race once their name recognition goes up and they get a Trump endorsement. But for now if forced to bet I'd bet on JBE.

I was heavily mocked for rating this a toss up for the longest time, lol. I will now accept my accolades.

CW was always that there would be a runoff and you were not heavily mocked for that prediction, but thanks for playing

Nice revisionist history. Yes, most people in the last few weeks thought there would be a runoff, maybe even in the last couple months, but the CW in 2018/early-mid 2019 was that JBE was inevitable and would be the Democratic version of Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker, etc.

[IceSpear]

It's so annoying that this race is tight but nobody up here even considered voting out God-Emperor Charlie Baker.

885,770 people did.