Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 09:56:10 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (search mode)
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)  (Read 44804 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2016, 11:56:46 PM »

Clearly, Sanders' performance in CO/MA/MN/OK/VT wasn't bad at all. It was his crushing losses in the South that made it a bad night for him. Case in point, the biggest mistake of the Sanders campaign was only focusing on states he thought he could win. In a proportional system, it's worth your while to invest in Texas, even if it's not a state you can win. Better to lose by 15% than 35%.

Bingo. Skipping a state here and there might be worthwhile, but for the most part you want to fight for every delegate in a proportional system, especially for something YUGE like Texas. His strategy makes me think he doesn't actually intend to win.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2016, 12:07:20 AM »

FEEL THE (CLINTON) BURN! PLUS IT WILL ONLY GONNA GET STRONGER!
Demographically, the Clinton burn will be stronger today than at any other time. She can look forward to getting these margins in MS, LA, and DC, but nowhere else.

She doesn't need those massive margins anymore due to her massive delegate lead. Even in the worst case scenario, she just needs to keep most contests remotely close. Easy peasy.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2016, 12:42:44 AM »

According to 538, this is how Bernie performed relative to his benchmarks:

CO: +6
OK: +6

MN: -1
VT: -11
MA: -14
GA: -16
VA: -20
TX: -22
AR: -25
TN: -35
AL: -41

Looks like a landslide folks.

Dude you'r fake. He won 87% of Votes in VT & he under-performed by 11% - What was he supposed to get? 98%

Where is the link? Do not come up with fake data to spread your message - Disgusting

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2016, 12:47:45 AM »

Sanders "underperforming" his target in VT is literally meaningless since it resulted in 0 change of delegates. And it's not as if the media will call VT a disappointment for Sanders.

Okay fine, throw away VT. The point is that Sanders significantly underperformed in the vast majority of the states, and now has to win other states by even more massive margins (and cut Hillary's leads significantly in her strong states) to have a prayer. It's math.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2016, 01:13:06 AM »

In terms of the headlines, Sanders had a pretty good night -- he won 4 states.  But in terms of the delegate count Hillary was the runaway winner.  As others have said, the major factor here was Hillary's blowout wins in the southern states.  In the biggest delegate prize, Texas, she is currently winning 66-33.  In the second biggest state, Georgia, she slayed 71-28.  Alabama is an average-sized state but she won by a ridiculous 78-19 which is a big delegate advantage.  In fact, because Bernie is below 20% I believe he gets no delegates from that state.  Clinton gets no delegates from Vermont but that is a Bernie's home state and a small state with not many delegates at stake.

Yup, people need to remember this isn't the electoral college. State wins don't mean very much, aside from optics. What really matters are the margins, and Hillary's margins in the South have effectively shut Bernie out of the nomination. There's just nowhere he can make it up, especially if he's splitting the delegates in states like IA and MA.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #30 on: March 02, 2016, 01:34:04 AM »

should not lose track of this prime objective.

The prime objective is electing Hillary so she can appoint the 9th Supreme Court justice. THAT IS THE PRIME OBJECTIVE! THIS SINGLE JUSTICE WILL DEFINE A GENERATION PEOPLE! A GENERATION!

Bernie does better in the general election.

The person who is still leading even after being attacked for the last 30 years by the press, Republican Party, and the general public.

The Obama administration's FBI is investing pay to play with the Clinton Foundation.

Bernie bros gotta hate. F'n butthurt.

Hillary hacks ignore general election polls for no good reason.

Just ask President Dewey, President Dukakis, and President McCain.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2016, 01:37:32 AM »

should not lose track of this prime objective.

The prime objective is electing Hillary so she can appoint the 9th Supreme Court justice. THAT IS THE PRIME OBJECTIVE! THIS SINGLE JUSTICE WILL DEFINE A GENERATION PEOPLE! A GENERATION!

Bernie does better in the general election.

No one gives a crap about early GE polls. Especially given how Sanders has pretty much gotten a free pass by the media and GOP unlike Hillary.

Of course, it's true that GE polls this early mean next to nothing. However, I have little doubt that if Clinton was doing better against Republicans in polls right now, Clinton supporters would cite that as evidence that she's more electable than Sanders (and Sanders supporters would dismiss those polls.)

I stopped paying attention to GE polls when they started showing ridiculous crap like Minnesota being more likely to vote Republican than Utah.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2016, 02:53:27 AM »


What's with that one random county in GA that went for Sanders?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #33 on: March 02, 2016, 03:01:14 AM »

What's with that one random county in GA that went for Sanders?

According to Bacon King - I am not making this up - it's an isolated tract of barely populated swampland to which Georgia's most violent and dangerous criminals are exiled. Fewer than 100 votes were cast there.

I...was not expecting that. LOL

#Banished4Bernie. Any idea why these people support him?
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #34 on: March 02, 2016, 03:29:22 AM »

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but what's the deal with Floyd County, VA, going 70% for Sanders?

Also, what's up with Armstrong county, Texas, where he got 80%.

Armstrong's easy - there was only 5 votes. Total.

Hillary won King County 2:1. She also won it 2-1. Wink
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #35 on: March 02, 2016, 03:38:50 AM »

If it wasn't for Boston, Hillary would only be up 200 votes in MA. Imagine that.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2016, 12:23:11 AM »

Bad day for county sweeps. AR, TN, GA, OK all ruined.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 13 queries.