NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[ElectionsGuy]

According to a lot of early vote estimates, it looks like the early vote skewed old, so the caucus day turnout should skew younger.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/kendallkarson/status/1231304966796537857

Bad for Warren

[ElectionsGuy]

It's glorious watching James Carville, Joy Reid, and Chris Matthews cry on MSNBC.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's glorious watching James Carville, Joy Reid, and Chris Matthews cry on MSNBC.

Joy Reid actually got what was going on, I didn't read that as crying. Chris Matthews definitely was though, haha.

True, she's still upset about it though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Iowa 2.0. Kornacki reporting some precincts are having trouble incorporating early voting into their results.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1231355913254133761

Buttigieg and Klobuchar are doomed anywhere that isn't New England or the upper Midwest.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pete is desperate and going after Sanders in his defeat speech. But I'm glad he's staying in - him splitting up the vote benefits Sanders.

[ElectionsGuy]

lol if no one drops out after this

No one is. We'll have to wait until Super Tuesday.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

He gets an outright majority with Latino voters in an 8 person field and does as well with blacks as whites. But yes, be concerned.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Black voters are clearly the establishment, so that's not a concern. In seriousness, if black voters are being dismissed moving forward because they didn't vote for Sanders and he gets the nomination, then that would be trouble in November. A Democratic nominee cannot win a general election without decent black turnout in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Exactly. Bernie can and almost certainly will win the primary if the current numbers hold among other demos, but AA's-- democrats most loyal voters-- will have been denied their candidate of choice.

If Biden gets the nomination, a majority of black voters won't get their preferred nominee.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Black voters are clearly the establishment, so that's not a concern. In seriousness, if black voters are being dismissed moving forward because they didn't vote for Sanders and he gets the nomination, then that would be trouble in November. A Democratic nominee cannot win a general election without decent black turnout in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Exactly. Bernie can and almost certainly will win the primary if the current numbers hold among other demos, but AA's-- democrats most loyal voters-- will have been denied their candidate of choice.

If Biden gets the nomination, a majority of black voters won't get their preferred nominee.

I mean, the same is true of Bernie with Latinos. What is your point?

My point is that your point is facetious and hacky. There is nothing that suggests non-Bernie black voters in the primary will not be supporting Sanders in the general.

[ElectionsGuy]

Let's be real: Nevada is a fast-growing state and the option of early voting has been introduced. Turnout should be a decent amount higher than 2008 this year if Democrats should feel confident about their enthusiasm. If they only beat it by a little bit that's not too great.

[ElectionsGuy]

Everybody trying to construct a Biden comeback narrative after last night is desperate. He lost to Bernie by 16 points.

Republicans probably have a lot of dirt on Bernie. They are just saving it until he gets the nomination. Trump has been mostly silent about Bernie, as opposed to making jokes about everyone elese.

You would think opposition research would be known by now considering this is the 2nd time he's run for president.

[ElectionsGuy]

Turnout is awful. Will be lucky to hit 100K. Well below 2008 even with the addition of early voting and high population growth since 2008.  Less than 20% of registered Democrats will participate.

Jon Ralston tweeted this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231414127265927170

57,619 first alignment votes with 60% in.  Had a 118K in 2008 when there was only about 75% of the registered Democrats there are today.

Turnout would have to be about 157K to match proportionately to 2008. That is not good.

[ElectionsGuy]

I just want to say I'm so proud of the culinary union workers. Their older, more well-off leadership tried to scare them into not voting for a socialist, and they respectfully crapped on their advice. Especially if they had to caucus in front of their co-workers and bosses, it gives me a lot of hope for our society to see that kind of autonomy and/or non-conformity.

[ElectionsGuy]

Biden did terrible everywhere outside Clark County. The only thing that is keeping him alive at this point is his strong performance among black voters.