Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

Rengo mostly endorses DPP and pro-DPP independents across the board plus some pro-Rengo CDP candidates.  It seems between what they believe are pro-JCP CDP candidates and LDP they are taking a neutral position.

[jaichind]

It seems there is a heat wave coming to Japan soon.  LDP better hope there are no power blackouts.  If there are blackouts that might impact LDP at least on the margins.

Heatwave incoming.  The government is already asking people to conserve power and already is warning of possible blackouts.

[jaichind]

https://www.mbs.jp/news/kansainews/20220627/GE00044470.shtml

MBS survey of 京都(Kyoto) has a near 3-way tie of CDP LDP JRP in that sequence with JCP slightly behind.  For CDP to be slightly ahead of LDP and JRP and for JCP to be close means both CDP and JCP are outperforming and would imply that the CDP incumbent has been effective at eating into the LDP KP and DPP votes.

[jaichind]

CDP and other opposition parties are running against the "Kishida inflation" in their stump speeches.   Is Kishida going to respond by talking about a "Putin price hike?"  Given how much of Japan's current rise in inflation is import driven Kishida is much more justified in making that claim than Biden.

[jaichind]

New NHK poll. Kishida government approval continues to decline as inflation starts to bite. Economic issues, not constitutional change, is the first thing on voter's mind for this election. Only 5% of voters have constitutional issues as their priority, compared to 43% on the economy and 16% on social security.

Party ID

LDP support in this poll fell to 35.6 as opposed to 38.6 in the last 2021 pre-election poll.  The good news for LDP is that CDP and JRP support are that not so hot either (at this stage of the election I would expect one of the two if not both to get close to 10%.)  I can for sure see how parties like PP PNHK and SDP which each has a small core set of voters can eat up some disaffected voters to get above the ~1.8% PR vote threshold to get a seat.

[jaichind]

Latest Kishida cabinet approval curve.  It is not bad especially given how low disapproval is and is about where it was right before the 2021 election.   The momentum is clearly against the Kishida cabinet and it will get worse over the coming weeks.  The July 10th election cannot come fast enough for LDP.


LDP party support also falling

[jaichind]

Mainichi single member district poll. LDP clearly leads in 24, to close to call in 5, and opposition leads in 3.
OPPO leads: Aomori, Iwate and Yamagata
Too close to call: Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Oita, Okinawa
LDP leads: everything else

The good news for the opposition is that all 5 tossups have opposition incumbents.  With the momentum going against the LDP I would say the LDP is likely to lose most if not all of the tossups.  I also suspect there will be a surprise 1- member district LDP loss on election night.  Using the incumbency advantage conjecture this surprise is most likely to be an open seat which would mean it could be 福島Fukushima),  三重(Mie), or 長崎(Nagasaki).  The LDP has sold prefecture assembly-level candidates in all of them but going to prefecture lean 福島(Fukushima) is the most likely one to be that surprise.

[jaichind]

Sankei has an even more harsh assessment of 1- member districts than Mainichi where they put 山形   (Yamagata) in the tossup column and 大分(Ōita) in the lean LDP column.  This is significant since as a right-wing outfit Sankei tend to come out with LDP unfriendly assessements

[jaichind]

Sankei assessment

LDP     60-68
KP       10-14
PP          0-1
PNHK     0-1
JRP     11-14
DPP      2-4
CDP    17-24
RS        1-2
SDP      0-1
JCP       5-7
Ind       4-4 (most likely 3 anti-LDP 1 pro-LDP)

If we accept that KP is 14 seats LDP JCP and JRP will be at the lower end of their range this is fairly positive on LDP and JCP and fairly negative for RS and somewhat negative for SDP PP PNHK since they do not see them winning a PR seat as a lock.  Their assessment for CDP and DPP is on the lower side.

[jaichind]

In conservative and LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) Mainichi has JRP ahead of CDP (not a surprise) but it also has PP ahead of JCP.  Amazing.  The mainstream populist Right and extreme populist Right has overtaken the mainstream left and JCP as the main opposition to LDP in this prefecture.

[jaichind]

In conservative and LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) Mainichi has JRP ahead of CDP (not a surprise) but it also has PP ahead of JCP.  Amazing.  The mainstream populist Right and extreme populist Right has overtaken the mainstream left and JCP as the main opposition to LDP in this prefecture.

Hmm, I see JCP in fourth in that image.

Look at the right column which is Mainichi

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll.  Shift away from LDP toward CDP and JCP (change from prev poll)
 
LDP     31.8(-4.3)
KP        8.6(+2.3)
PP        1.2(+0.5)
HRP      0.5(+0.3)
PNHK   0.6(-0.2)
JRP     12.5(-0.1)
DPP      2.7(-0.1)
CDP    17.2(+1.2)
RS       2.3(+0.5)
SDP     1.4(+0.7)
JCP      9.5(+1.6)



In 2021 JX was the only poll that picked up the JRP surge toward the end so it might be useful to compare the last JX poll before 2021 and compare it to this poll and the 2021 results

            2022 JX         2021 results        2021 JX
LDP        31.8                 34.7                 32.0
KP           8.6                 12.4                   8.4
PP           1.2
HRP         0.5
PNHK       0.6                   1.4                   0.9
JRP        12.5                  14.0                12.3
DPP         2.7                    4.5                  2.5
CDP       17.2                  20.0                21.3
RS          2.3                    3.9                  1.6
SDP        1.4                    1.8                  1.4
JCP         9.5                    7.3                  7.6

Other than KP the JX poll was pretty good at predicting final PR results.  There was clearly a last-minute JRP surge in the Greater Osaka area which produced a very strong JRP vote.  Not sure we can count on the same surge this time.

It seems LDP KP JRP DPP and SDP all are polling about where they were in the last pre-2021 election poll.  It is CDP that has fallen and JCP that has gained as well as the new far-right party PP as well as HRP which are running this year but did not run in 2021.

All in all relative to 2017 CDP lost ground to JRP who then lost round to PP and other far-right parties for a near-nil net gain.  CDP also lost ground to RS and JCP.

[jaichind]

Kyodo PR poll (change from mid June)

LDP      28.3 (+1.0)
KP          7.2 (+1.0)
PNHK      0.8 (-0.3)
JRP         6.1 (-1.6)
DPP        1.8 (-0.4)
CDP        8.2 (+1.2)
RS          1.3 (-0.5)
SDP        0.8 (--)
JCP         4.1 (-0.4)

Matches some of the other polls out there in terms of trends other than JCP which is falling in this poll when other polls seems to have JCP surging.

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll says that 79.8% say that Kishida's anti-inflation measures are insufficient.  Around 15% says it is.

[jaichind]

Are any of the fringe parties advocating for end of Japanese sanctions on Russia?

Most of them do seem to put much effort/time on Russia sanctions since

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/26/business/less-3-japan-firms-exiting-russia-lowest-among-g7-survey/

"Less than 3% of Japan firms exiting Russia, lowest among G7: survey"

Most of the differences are the choice between

a) Continue Japanese alliance with USA to counter PRC but as equals and with nuclear weapons
b) End alliance with USA and become an independent superpower with nuclear weapons to take on PRC

a) and b) in de facto terms are the same since both has Japan being independent military superpower that is either de jure or de facto aligned with USA to take on PRC.  Those that are for b) area really about pushing out Western cultural influence out of Japan which to be far all the far right parties are for.

[jaichind]

Nikkan Gendai says that LDP is at risk of losing its elderly base over these power problems and power rationing.  Of course, Nikkan Gendai is always negative about LDP's chances before an election to boost its sales.

[jaichind]

The CDP candidate in 京都(Kyoto) who is in a neck-to-neck race with the JRP for the second of two seats is running on 京都(Kyoto) pride and rejection of 大阪(Osaka) domination inferring that the JRP candidate is an agent of 大阪(Osaka) domination.

[jaichind]

The heat wave in Japan has already killed over 100 people and the government is begging people to not use power to avoid massive blackouts.  There is also a government campaign to tell people not to wear masks since wearing masks increases the chance of a heat stroke in a time of high temperatures.

[jaichind]

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.

[jaichind]

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.

If they have turned against the local LDP, what was the most likely reason why?

From what I can gather it has to do with the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada).  It turns out that she has an American father and was born in the USA but then moved to 岡山(Okayama) which is her mother's prefecture after she was born.  So like Renho she has her own birther "issues" to deal with.  She also started her political career in Tokyo where she went to college and became a LDP up-and-coming star there before running for the Upper House in 岡山(Okayama) in 2016 when the seat unexpectedly became an open seat when a long-time popular opposition politician retired.  The LDP and KP base, tired of losing to that popular opposition politician for years united in 2016 for what they mostly consider a generic LDP candidate to win which they did.

But 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) was always seen by the local LDP and KP organization as an "outsider" and that came to a head in her re-election.  The local KP organization was raising doubts about endorsing 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) this time around and it seems was mostly a ploy to get 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) to pay more attention to their interest.  It seems 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) struck back by saying that she did not need KP's endorsement which led to a blowup.   The local LDP prefecture assembly members are freaked out about this since without KP support they might take a hit in the 2023 prefecture assembly election.  On the other hand, there seem to be some LDP supporters that have always been not so hot about the LDP-KP alliance that came out in favor of 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s stance.  The pro-CDP independent tried to take advantage of this and asked for KP's endorsement and was rejected. 

The net effect is that the KP vote will be split between the LDP's 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) and the pro-CDP independent although I can see higher LDP turnout energized by what it appears to be小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s principled stance.

The article also pointed out another reason why this development is not so rosy for the pro-CDP independent beyond a separate JCP candidate (well if JCP was backing the pro-CDP independent the KP who hates JCP above all else would back 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) anyway.)  The article points out that Rengo is backing the pro-CDP independent but used the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) to describe that alliance.  吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) is an ancient Chinese saying from the Han dynasty that refers to a story from earlier Chinese history (during the era of Sun Tzu) where the kingdoms of Wu and Yue were rivals but when people from both kingdoms were stuck on the same boat that was about to capsize they all worked together to get the boat to safety.  Even though this saying was always about the need for enemies to pull together to deal with a present common danger the saying has always inferred (this is controversial as there have been alternative readings of this saying) that the alliance will break up after the common danger has passed.  The article's use of the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) implies the Rengo support for the pro-CDP independent is most likely not rock solid and some of the Rengo/DPP vote could go LDP.

[jaichind]

One of the LDP PR candidate is a famous Manga artist, Ken Akamatsu. Some posters here might be familiar with a few of his works.
 
He is running on an anti censorship, artistic freedom platform against laws regulating the distribution of manga and anime to minors. He is likely to be elected as he has the backing of the Japanese entertainment industry and their supporters.
 
His campaign office
 

Yeah, LDP has been pretty clever last few election cycles to tap into the non-political youth vote that all things equal lean LDP anyway but the LDP needs to get them to the polls.  In 2019 they roped in ex-YP MP 山田太郎(Tarō Yamada).  He re-invited himself politically and became an advocate of Otaku or Japanese male youth which are fans of Anime and manga.  He fought against laws to regulate hentai due to linkages to child pornography.  He became a hero of what is called the "geek vote" of young males that are really into Hentai.  He won a massive 540K votes for himself and the LDP in 2019. 

The independent candidate for Tokyo 乙武洋匡(Hirotada Ototake) was actively courted by the LDP in 2016 with the same logic given his celebrity status.  It then turned out that he was having multiple affairs so the idea was dropped.

[jaichind]

The heat wave in Japan has already killed over 100 people and the government is begging people to not use power to avoid massive blackouts.  There is also a government campaign to tell people not to wear masks since wearing masks increases the chance of a heat stroke in a time of high temperatures.

Japanese social media is point out that most people are ignoring government recommendations not to wear masks outside.  I guess the COVID-19 social conditioning overdrive last two years is now finally blowing up in the government's face.

[jaichind]

Yeah.  The latest JX poll is pretty positive for JCP and negative for JRP.  One positive sign for JRP is Aichi where is is ahead of the DPP incumbent for the 4th position.  Using my incumbent outperforming model I still say DPP has the edge here.   Still for JRP to be in then running here is a positive signal for them. 

[jaichind]

Tomorrow's Gendai makes a bold claim that LDP is at risk of losing 12 single member districts (Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Yamagata, Fukushima, Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Okayama, Ehime(?), Oita and Okinawa). Like jaichind said though, they're tabloid trash but it's interesting to note which prefectures are believed to be close.

There are arguments for all of them including Fukushima (open seat, historically competitive) and  Okayama (LDI candidate blowup with KP) but I do not see an argument for Ehime as you pointed out.  The only argument is that it was close in 2016 and the LDP lost in 2019.  But that is due to one very unique pro-opposition candidate than ran and lost in 2016 and won in 2019 that is able to win over LDP voterrs.  Since she was elected in 2019 she is not on the ballot this year so I do not see any reason why the LDP incumbent would be in danger.

If I were them I would instead push 福井(Fukui) where a LDP rebel running with JRP support could split the LDP vote down the middle letting in the pro-CDP independent.   It is a long shot but at least there is some logic to it.

I currently have it at LDP 24 Oppostion 8 and that is at the outer edge of anti-LDP projections.

[jaichind]

Another typical obligatory KP newspaper freak-out is that their candidate in 兵庫(Hyōgo) is now going to lose.   They cried wolf in 2019 and got so many LDP tactical voting that LDP almost lost to CDP for 4th place.