Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

Identical headlines in Japan's top 5 newspapers

[jaichind]

In the PR section, you can write in the name of the party or a name of a candidate on a party list, and the vote count tards said party with the vote total of each candidate determining which ones from the party list are elected

This person voted for a JRP RP candidate (he is a JRP Osaka City Council member) which most likely means the voter is most likely from Osaka

[jaichind]

A day before the election the campaigning restarts.  Here is a JCP candidate on the stump

[jaichind]

SDP PR MP and also chairperson of SDP 福島瑞穂(Fukushima Mizuho) is also back on the campaign trial to try to win re-election if SDP gets to around 1.8% PR vote. She is fighting for her political life.  With Abe's assimilation and likely surge of turnout most likely she will not make it.

[jaichind]

Early voting rates are higher than in 2019 and 2021.  Most of this is before Abe's assassination.

[jaichind]

The Chinese language media which some links to secondary and stringer media in Japan are saying that their Japanese sources tell them that what the suspect is saying is rambling and contradictory it seems the story is:

The suspect's mother is a member of the Unification Church while the suspect himself is associated with the Unification Church splinter Sanctuary Church which is having some sort of civil war between the two in Japan.  The suspect is convinced that Abe is connected to the Unification Church.  While Abe and the LDP take support from Unification Church and other religious organizations over the years it is not clear why the suspect is singling Abe out for this. One theory is that some PNHK candidates have been criticizing Abe for being connected to the Unification Church (as well as Falun Gong) as proof that Abe and the LDP are anti-national and anti-Japanese given their Korean and PRC origins.

The police and mainstream media keep all this under wraps and just refer to "particular religious organization" mostly because if the full details come out, especially before an election, it might be open season on Unification Church, Sanctuary Church, PNHK, and Zainichi Koreans (since Unification Church came from ROK).

Speaking of Chinese language media on the ROC, pro-DPP media are heartbroken over Abe's assassination since they see Abe as their most relianet and powerful ally in Japanese politics.  I think out of anger and frustration they are floating theories that the CCP might be behind this.  Of course, they provide no evidence for their conjecture but the pro-DPP ecosystem right now is in a freakout and lashing out against the CCP for their loss.   They will get over it after a while.

[jaichind]

My final projection

I also have the alternative winner for competitive and tossups seats

Much higher turnout (something like 58%-59%) with a LDP surge at the expense of everyone but especially JRP.  KP barely hangs on to win 7 seats with a higher turnout and marginal JCP voters come out as well which saves JCP from losing more ground. 

In 1- member districts the JRP vote shifts to LDP destroying the opposition while in multi-member districts the JRP is hurt by the JRP vote going to LDP with a result the JRP underperforms in multi-member districts.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP LDP (compeititve) (CDP)
青森   Aomori             1             CDP (competitive) (LDP)                             
岩手   Iwate               1             LDP (tossup)  (CDP)
宮城   Miyagi              1             LDP     
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                 
山形   Yamagata         1             DPP (tossup) (LDP)                     
福島   Fukushima       1              LDP                   
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP OPPN (competitive) (JRP)                         
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                           
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                 
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP KP CDP OPPN (competitive) (JRP)                   
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP CDP (competitive) (JRP)                   
神奈川Kanagawa        5              LDP JRP LDP KP JCP (tossup) (CDP)         
山梨   Yamanashi       1              LDP (comeptitive) (CDP)     
東京   Tokyo              6              LDP CDP LDP KP JCP RS (tossup) (JRP)   
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP (tossup) (CDP)           
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                 
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                 
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                 
長野   Nagano             1             CDP (tossup) (LDP)                             
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                 
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP ex-DP likely pro-LDP                   
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP CDP DPP (tossup) (JRP)               
三重   Mie                   1             LDP                             
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP 
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (tossup) (JRP)   
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP LDP JRP KP           
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             JRP LDP KP
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                 
和歌山Wakayama        1              LDP                                 
鳥取 Tottori/               
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                               
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP       
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP OPPN (competitive) (JRP)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                 
徳島   Tokushima/ 
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                 
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                 
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                 
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP CDP                     
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                 
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                               
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                               
大分   Ōita                  1            LDP (comptititve) (DPP)           
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                 
鹿児島Kagoshima       1              LDP                               
沖縄   Okinawa           1             LDP (tossup) (OPPN) 
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 29-3
                                                           
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                21                    39.0%               46                     67
KP                   7                     12.5%                7                     14
PP                   1                       2.0%                0                       1
PNHK               0                      1.0%                 0                      0
JRP                  7                    14.0%                4                      11
DPP                  3                      5.5%                3                       6
CDP                 7                    13.5%                 9                     16
SDP                 0                       1.5%               0                       0
RS                   1                      3.5%                1                       2
JCP                  4                      7.5%                2                       6
Others                                     1.0%
OPPN                                                              3                        3
pro-LDP                                                          1                        1

[jaichind]

Other political implications.  The leader of the largest LDP faction is gone and it will be hard to fill Abe's shoes.  Given how much the intra-faction battles are over personality differences versus policy differences this could lead to another round of re-shuffling of the different LDP factional rivalries and alliances.  One possible winner would be Kono Taro.  It seems Abe is really out to get him and if Abe stayed around in LDP politics for another decade he could really retard Kono Taro's chances of being LDP leader.  Now that Abe is gone former PM and Aso faction leader Aso Taro will become the LDP party elder.  Kono Taro is in the Aso faction plus Kono Taro's father and former LDP Prez Kono Yohei being Aso's old benefactor all means the LDP hierarchy just got a lot friendlier to Kono.

whats the different between the factions also is true to say abe was japan reagan?

Writeup I had on LDP factions.
Foreign policy-wise I can see some similarities between Abe and Reagan where he put Japan back on the geopolitical map even while Japan's relative economic position continued to decline.  Domestic economically he was all talk about structural reforms and his monetary policy was for sure not Reagan-Volcker but more like Nixon/Carter-Burns with massive QE and monetary easing to keep all sorts of zombie Japanese companies alive.

LDP factions have their origins in the merger of the more Conservative and larger LP and the more Liberal and smaller DP in 1955.  LP and DP were rivals for the Center-Right vote and after the merger, their rivalry just continued as factions.

岸田(Kishida) faction - 45 MPs - Came from LP, the oldest of LDP factions and the faction of current PM

谷垣(Tanigaki) faction - 26 MPs - led by Prez of LDP in 2009-2012 and a splinter of 岸田(Kishida) faction

二階(Nikai) faction - 43 MPs - came from DP and was founded by the DP leader 鳩山(Hatoyama)- always considered non-mainstream given its DP background.  Historically known as the pro-PRC faction.  When LDP needs to do deals with the PRC they always send the 二階(Nikai) faction to work things out with the PRC.

森山(Moriyama) faction - 7 MPs - 二階(Nikai) faction splinter - used to be led by 石原伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) son of the famous governor of Tokyo

安倍(Abe) faction - 94 MPs - came from LP and is now the largest and most right-wing/conservative faction led by former PM Abe

茂木(Motegi) faction - 54 MPs - used to be led by 竹下亘(Takesh**ta Wataru) brother of LDP PM Takesh**ta if the early 1990s.  This is the old powerful Tanaka faction that has an LP background.  Used to dominate LDP in the 1970s to 1990s but Ozawa split the faction and led it outside of LDP.  You can argue that CDP/DPP is merely a Tanaka faction splinter.  Since the Ozawa split this faction has gone into decline and slowly became non-mainstream.  

麻生(Aso) faction - 49 MPs - led by former PM and DPM Aso.  Founded by 河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who had a 二階(Nikai) faction background before forming an LDP splinter NLC in 1976-1986.  When he rejoined LDP he formed his own faction.  His son 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is a member of this faction ran for leadership for LDP last year (as well as in 2009) with both ending in defeat.  This faction was not that powerful but once leadership moved to Aso it became much more powerful under Aso's leadership.

石破(Ishiba) - 10 MPs - a new faction led by 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) mainly as a vehicle to take on Abe and his faction

菅(Suga) group - 25 MP - In theory this is not a faction but during former PM 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) long reign as PM Abe's Chief Cabinet Secretary he gathered a bunch of non-aligned LDP MP into a bloc that is loyal to Suga so this can be considered a faction.


All things equal the 安倍(Abe) faction, 麻生(Aso) faction, and 岸田(Kishida) faction is considered mainstream, and others non-mainstream.  二階(Nikai) faction is non-mainstream due to the DP background while 茂木(Motegi) faction is non-mainstream due to the stain of the Ozawa split/defection of 1993.  Also, 茂木(Motegi) faction and 安倍(Abe) faction were ancient rivals so with the 安倍(Abe) faction being mainstream by definition 茂木(Motegi) is considered non-mainstream.

二階(Nikai) faction has always had ambitions to break out of its non-mainstream status and become the largest faction ergo this faction had spent a lot of time trying to recruit non-LDP politicians to run as pro-LDP independents hoping if they win they will join 二階(Nikai) faction.  This makes the 二階(Nikai) faction extra unpopular since these 二階(Nikai) faction backed pro-LDP independents running sometimes will hurt the electoral prospects of the official LDP candidate from other factions.

[jaichind]

PP stands for?!

Far-Right 参政党(PP) (Participation Party) seems to continue to gain steam.  The number of people that attend their rallies and watch online videos continues to rise rapidly.  There is growing speculation that they could be in a position to win a PR seat which is quite impressive they since have PNHK and HRP (which itself is Far-Right) as protest parties to peel off the anti-system vote as well as other Far-Right parties like 維新政党・新風 (IPS), 日本第一党(JFP) and 新党くにもり(NPC) in the fray to capture the Far-Right PR vote.

PP, sensing their momentum, seems to have gone all out and nominated candidates in pretty much all prefectures which says a lot about their fundraising capabilities.  

With this in mind, it would be useful to take a closer look at PP's platform.  

Their website is https://www.sanseito.jp/

and their logo is



First, PP or Participation Party is the name I made up for them.  They do not have an English name and in theory, their party name written in English is the phonetic version of 参政党 which is Sanseito.  参政党 means Participation Party which is why I prefer that for now until they ever come up with their official English name.

Their key platform points
a) Dramatic reduction of immigration and no voting rights for immigrants
b) Remilitariaton to be a part of an anti-PRC alliance in East Asia
c) Overturn the post-WWII international system with Japan being a full-blown equal to USA
d) Anti-Vax
e) Reduction of the power of banks with the promotion of digital currency and cryptos
f) Dramatic political decentralization with push for prefecture and even township rights (their "Do it yourself" slogan is part of this push)
g) Increased power of the Emperor (but not to pre-1945 levels)
h) Return Japanese culture to a pre-1945 era which an emphasis on pushing out foreign influence (especially removing the Western woke ideas)

If you watch their stump speeches it is clear that what is getting them to catch fire is the reduction of banking power, decentralization and their anti-Western woke stance.  Their success is a success of Right populism.  I can see them being a threat to JRP and could eat into the JRP vote.

[jaichind]

A chart on competitive 1- member districts projections by media house.  It averages out to 27-5.  But that was before Abe's assassination when I had it 24-8.  Now I have it at 29-3 which actually matches Asahi's projection exactly for every seat.

[jaichind]

Reading Japanese social media it seems the "secret" of the Unification Church and Abe being the "cause" of his assassination cannot be held back.  It seems tomorrow (election day) the police and MSM will have to go public with this.  

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6b0e33d621afef8e8a889b570426786d22ed69d3

Seems to be the first break in the dam. It talks about Abe and Unification Church.

[jaichind]

Reading Japanese social media it seems the "secret" of the Unification Church and Abe being the "cause" of his assassination cannot be held back.  It seems tomorrow (election day) the police and MSM will have to go public with this.  

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6b0e33d621afef8e8a889b570426786d22ed69d3

Seems to be the first break in the dam. It talks about Abe and Unification Church.

Oh, the media will continue to lie. They'll refuse to expose the links between the Sanctuary Church, QAnon, the attempted coup in USA and Trump.

Just to be clear the "link" is more about the perception from the suspect that Abe and the Unification Church are linked and not they are really linked.  The MSM holding it back is more about concerns over possible attacks on the Unificaiton Church versus any attempt to hide any "links"

[jaichind]

What are the various theories floating out there aside from the DPP cope and the official story?

The most likely and reasonable theory is the Unification Church connection, namely suspect feels Abe is supportive and even connected to Unification Church so he went after Abe

Here is the General Secretary of PNHK attacking the Abe clan (Abe's grandfather who was also PM is claimed to be pro-Unification Church) for being linked to Unification Church back in late June.
https://twitter.com/JpPoliticsChl/status/1540864353419022336

[jaichind]

So LDP = cente right to right wing
JRP = right wing
PP = far right

JRP is more libertarian and has social views much more liberal than LDP.   But on decentralization JRP is much more "Right" and PP even more "Right."  Similar for Japanese nationalism but on that topic, LDP is a very large tent.

[jaichind]

Kind of funny that they emphasize eliminating Western influence on Japan but then have English (not just カタカナ言葉, but actual English) on their logo.

Their attack on modern Western culture is more focused on the "woke" aspects of it than on the fact it is foreign.  Western culture being foreign would not help of course.  I am sure they will have dramatically fewer objections to Western cultural influence in Japan if it is what it was in the 1940s and 1950s.

[jaichind]

At 5 minutes before 7AM EST NHK will go live and at 7AM EST go broadcast its exit poll via

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

[jaichind]

Usually

NHK: https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/sangiin/

and

Asahi: https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/saninsen/

Have the fastest counts/calls.  A superset of the two is usually the most up-to-date information

[jaichind]

Turnout Chart
     
          (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
          2022    2021    2019     2016
Early    TBC    19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00   6.18     6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00             26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00             31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69

The early vote came in at 18.6 so it seems we are looking at a drop in turnout relative to 2021, something like 51-52.  This surprising.  This is positive for JCP SDP and KP.  SDP might make it on these numbers.

[jaichind]

Change in turnout at 2pm by prefecture relative to 2019.  Note this does not take into account the early vote which is up 2.6% when compared to 2019.  Similar pattern to 2021.  Urban up, rural down.

[jaichind]

Unlike lower house elections one can vote for a candidate in the PR section out of a party list.  This actually makes it harder to count PR votes than in lower house elections.  As a result, almost all the district votes will be counted and most races called before real PR vote counting gets going.

[jaichind]

The expected turnout is 51.5.  Much lower than expected.  I guess the Abe assassination had less impact than expected or there was a surge in LDP turnout but a decline in anti-LDP turnout.

[jaichind]

Turnout map by prefecture relative to 2019 as for 6PM

[jaichind]

18 00 Turnout Table
   
            (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
            2022    2021    2019    2016
Early   18.60   19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00    6.18    6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00  23.01   26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00  27.38   31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69

Starting to think that an Abe sympathy surge may not be happening at all or will perhaps be minor. LDP stronghold prefectures like Gunma, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi are actually showing a drop in turnout compared to the very anemic turnout in 2019.

I wonder what youth turnout is like.  Higher turnout assumptions were based on a surge of sympathy turnout with younger voters.  One reason why it might not have taken place is that Japanese social media last 24 hours has been flooded with messages along the lines of "The Unification Church wants you to vote LDP".  Most likely the online Left and Far Right are behind this.  Regardless this might have tampered down the sympathy turnout for LDP amoung the youth.

[jaichind]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/ live now

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls

LDP    59-69
KP      10-14
CDP    13-20
JRP     10-15
DPP       2-5
JCP        3-6
SDP       0-1
RS         1-3
PNHK     0-1
Others    5-7 (ind and PP)