Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

LDP looks like did well but not a blowout victory.  KP 10-14 but really coming in at 14 means everyone else will be at slightly lower end of their range.

[jaichind]

青森(Aomori) called right away for CDP shows it is not a mega LDP landslide

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岩手(Iwate) called right away for LDP shows it is a good night for LDP though.

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CDP called to win 1 of 2 京都(Kyoto) seats showed JRP underperformed and/or massive JCP tactical voting for CDP.

[jaichind]

Only 1- member districts uncalled are 山形(Yamagata) (DPP should win), 長野(Nagano) (CDP should win but for it to be close despite LDP candidate scandal shows the size of the LDP wave), 福井(Fukui) (JRP backed LDP rebel must be making a dent), 奈良(Nara) (so rumors of JRP surge is true), 沖縄(Okinawa) (should be neck-to-neck given it is a good but not super-duper night for LDP)

[jaichind]

In Tokyo, as expected the LDP CDP KP JCP incumbents called to win.  It is now LDP RS JRP to fight it out for the last 2 seats.

[jaichind]

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) as expected, LDP LDP KP JRP wins so it will be CDP and JCP fighting it out for the last seat which will only run for 3 years.

[jaichind]

The district-by-district exit polls by NHK seem to show that PP winning a decent vote share.  PP is now THE anti-system party in this election.

[jaichind]

Looking at the district seat votes shares of PP in NHK exit polls it would not surprise me if they get to 2 seats on the PR, maybe even beating out RS.  Amazing.  The Abe assassination I thought would have depressed anti-system turnout but it seems stronger than ever.

[jaichind]

In most rural 1- member prefectures the PP vote share as per NHK exit polls is beating JCP in a lot if not most of them.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 長野(Nagano).  It is not called but looks like CDP got this and stopped the LDP surge mostly due to the scandal that hit the LDP candidate.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for Tokyo.  Note the second LDP candidate is NOT called but the KP candidate is.  The CDP and JCP candidates are also called winners. This is because even NHK knows that exit polls systematically underestimate KP and most likely overestimate LDP.

[jaichind]

Superset of all media house calls.

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NHK exit poll for 奈良(Nara).  LDP well below 50% and there was a JRP surge.  The seat is not called but LDP should have this.

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NTV exit poll

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NHK exit poll for 福井(Fukui).  It seems the JRP-backed LDP rebel did OK but not great.  The fact this seat is not called seems more about outperformance by the CDP-backed independent. 

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Exit poll for 岡山(Okayama).  Even without the endorsement of the KP, the LDP incumbent is winning by a landslide.  Of course the Abe assassination must have pushed up the LDP vote.

[jaichind]

NHK calls Oita for LDP and Nagano for CDP

With that, I will be at worst 30 out of 32 for my 1- member seat calls.   The only two left that realistically are not known are 山形(Yamagata) which I called for DPP and 沖縄(Okinawa) which I called for LDP.    So far those respective candidates are ahead.   To be fair very few votes are in for 沖縄(Okinawa).  I am increasingly confident that  DPP will take 山形(Yamagata).  There is a real chance that OPPN incumbent will win in 沖縄(Okinawa).

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 福井(Fukui).  It seems the JRP-backed LDP rebel did OK but not great.  The fact this seat is not called seems more about outperformance by the CDP-backed independent.  

The reason is actually quite simple. The LDP candidate is 80 and can barely speak (yes really! Just watch his speeches). I have no idea why the LDP insisted on running someone who clearly should be in a care home.

Yeah, but I figured his organization plus the local LDP organization should be able to get a landslide victory even if it is just as a strawman at the top of the ticket.

As for why LDP nominated him, I have no idea.  I am pretty sure it is one of those if you go with a person from faction A, then faction B will rebel and vice versa so you got to go with the current incumbent to prevent a LDP civil war.

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) exit poll.  I am surprised how close this is.  I figured with the Abe assassination the entire JRP vote will shift over the LDP candidates.  I was half expecting the 2 LDP candidates to both finish in front of the 2 CDP candidates.

[jaichind]

The PR vote count will have a heavy rural count bias.  So the initial count will favor LDP and to some extent CDP.  Over time LDP will go down while JRP JCP and RS go up.  CDP most likely stays flat the entire time.

[jaichind]

How did the CDP win in Aomori?

CDP incumbent is a member of a  very prominent political family with deep roots.  Her father was a big LDP kingpin in the prefecture in the 1970s-2000s who switched to DPJ late in his career in the 1990s.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) shows a 3-way tie.  Asahi already called CDP to win 1 of the 2 seats so their exit poll must be different.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) shows a 3-way tie.  Asahi already called CDP to win 1 of the 2 seats so their exit poll must be different.

The LDP is probably hoping the CDP wins here, right?

Most likely.  LDP's way toward victory over CDP is "a vote for CDP is a vote for JCP."  That argument does not work with JRP.  Of course, this logic also works against JRP.   When JRP asks for LDP votes the response would be "would not that let in CDP which is really JCP?"

[jaichind]

Asahi called 福井(Fukui) for LDP