Polish Politics and Elections

[jaichind]

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-prezydenckie-najnowszy-sondaz-ibris-dla-onetu-andrzej-duda-wygrywa/ch34q01

IBRiS poll has Duda ahead 49.0 to 46.4

[jaichind]

I think Duda mostly wins around the same margin as 2015, perhaps a bit less.  Something like 51-49

[jaichind]

Exit poll has Duda ahead 50.4-49.6

[jaichind]

Duda claims victory.  At least based on exit polls this does not compute

[jaichind]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

[jaichind]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

Lol, he must be desperate to steal the election.

I do not think it is fair to claim either side can confidently say they have won.  As much as I want Duda to win at this stage it is not at all certain he has.

[jaichind]

As a side note, I wonder if those Korwinista votes are even still there to be won by Trzaskowski. The 2019 Konfederacja vote was quite evenly spread throughout the country, which is, broadly speaking, he standard vote distribution for one of Korwin's parties. The exit poll (which I'm not sure I trust) claimed Bosak only got 64% of those voters and his vote, despite being almost identical in percentage terms (6.8 to 6.78), was much more concentrated along the Eastern border, which would indicate he brought some of the LPR genepool vote back.

Well, if you believe the exit poll breakdowns, Duda won Bosak voters 52-48 but lost 2019 Konfederacja voters 39-61...

Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48 is a disaster for Duda.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowsk camp claims that the election has "irregularities" and will file election protests.  Duda is asking to meet with Trzaskowsk  tonight.

[jaichind]

The behavior of both Duda and Trzaskowsk seems to suggest both sides think Duda will win by a tiny margin.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowsk camp claims that the election has "irregularities" and will file election protests.  Duda is asking to meet with Trzaskowsk  tonight.

Of course it has irregularities, the postal voting was a bit of a joke. Some people had their postal vote done by family members, which is not supposed to happen. I am pretty sure on both side we will find a suspicious number of 90 years old in their deathbed who somehow participated in this election.

Sounds just like vote harvesting in CA.

[jaichind]

I’m calling it:

52.1% DUDE
47.9% other guy

Which would be the middle of my two predictions I made earlier today.

The case for a result like this would be the fact that exit polls Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48.  I find this hard to believe and most likely the result of the small sample size.  But if exit polls has Duda winning 50.4-49.6 with Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48 then in reality Duda will most likely win by significant margin, something like 52-48 or even greater.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowski campaign manager Tomczyk, speaking to a local broadcaster, suggested that votes coming in from abroad could yet turn the tide and brushed off talk of an imminent Duda-Trzaskowski meeting.

[jaichind]

When will any real results appear in

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/wyniki/pl

[jaichind]

Updated exit poll shows Duda margin growing

[jaichind]

Why cannot they release partial results?  They are taking all the fun out of this. 

[jaichind]

Oh well.

Not sure about that.   It does seem the exit poll does not take into account the international vote.  Sure, I would prefer to be Duda than not. But it is not a lock for him yet. 

[jaichind]

Well, votes are now being counted on the official site.

Can you post the link.  I do not see anything

[jaichind]

exit poll by age

[jaichind]

Final late poll (combination of exit polling and actual results)
AD - 51%
RT - 49%

MOE 1%
Foreign votes aren't included for the late poll.
Trzaskowski can still win, but his chances are getting slimmer.

Time to accept my accolades ?

I think Duda mostly wins around the same margin as 2015, perhaps a bit less.  Something like 51-49

[jaichind]

With almost all votes counted, Duda wins 51.2-48.8

[jaichind]

From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

I suspect the salience of LGBT issue most likely is the cause of this and is actually breaking down the 1914 border salience a bit.

[jaichind]

Konfederacja  seems to be surging in the polls last couple of months

[jaichind]

I know the threshold for seats is 5% for a party and 8% for an alliance.  For the purposes of this rule are the Left, Third Way, and Confederation considered parties or alliances? I assume they are considered alliances.

[jaichind]

Assuming PiS + Confederation gets a majority how likely is it that these two parties form a post-election coalition?