Hurricane Michael thread: (Updates, commentary)

[NewYorkExpress]

In before "I hope it hits Republican areas"

Everywhere in North Florida is a Republican area, so no one needs to say that to begin with.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

There are significant forecast challenges with Michael that some models aren’t even calibrated to detect, and other models have difficulty, or complete inability, to consider.  Sometimes forecasters need to rely on the features currently on satellite, as well as their experience monitoring past storms that battled similar circumstances.  Given the features, I would also toss out the models as far as intensity. 

Here’s what we know.  Michael is better organized, but further organization will be an issue.  Michael is currently lopsided, meaning that it’s mid-level and lower-level spins   (vorticities) are not stacked, as evidenced by Satellite and the 850, 750, 500mb vorticity chart posted below (1).   It will have a tough time becoming better organized because it is fighting off inhibiting factors such as shear and dry air while its own decent support system tries to organize and strengthen the cyclone. 

If we had no shear and no dry air on satellite, I would agree with models taking this up to a category 4.   However, I’ve monitored storms for the last 10 years, and have been fooled by the models.  Although they’ve improved, they still don’t pick up well on inhibiting factors such as the shear and dry air. 

Florence is a recent example of models botching intensity.  Florence was a system models projected landfall on the Carolina Coast with Strong 3 to Category 4 Intensity.  The models miscalculated the amount of mid-level dry air that would inundate the storm’s circulation due to the upper-level low that formed to Flo’s S&E and pushed the dry air into Flo.

Also a factor with Michael is that the trough will cause Michael to transition into a hybrid storm with a baroclonic features.  While the trough provides energy to Michael by lowering its pressures and expanding its wind field, it will also have the effect of broadening the storm’s circulation, and therefore, reduce its maximum wind speeds.   This looks to have already occurred. 

(1)http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Based on all that, I would guess Michael will either be a strong Cat 2, or a weak Cat 3...or possibly not a Hurricane at all, but a very strong non-tropical low pressure system by landfall (but that's the most unlikely scenario).

[NewYorkExpress]

My car broke down on evacuation day so I’m riding it out at a friends place.

Good luck...you are going to need it.

[NewYorkExpress]

125 mph as of latest best track update, pressure 949. http://tropicalatlantic.com

Almost certainly going to reach Cat 4 (it's just 5mph shy) and many on a hurricane forum I'm on are worried it could come close to a 5.

I don't think it'll reach a Cat 5, and I imagine it'll weaken back to a Cat 3 before landfall, much like Katrina, Ivan etc.

[NewYorkExpress]

I feel sorry for the meteorologists stuck following Leslie instead of Michael. Their irritation with that fish spinner is starting to show.

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I think those forecasters have a hell of a sense of humor.

[NewYorkExpress]

Riddle me this how can Trump find a way to take this issue and look like douche? Well hold a political rally in Pennsylvania right in the middle of the storm

If we're going to talk Politics, at least talk Rick Scott, Bill Nelson, Andrew Gillium and Ron Desantis, as their races are most affected the Hurricane.