Hurricane Michael thread: (Updates, commentary)

[Grassroots]

This thread is fr commentary, updates, data, etc. relating to Tropical Storm Michael, which of right now is estimated to make a Category 23 landfall on the Florida panhandle around noon Wednesday.

General Resources:

NWS Hurricane Center:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NWS page on Michael:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

Cyclocane live info on Michael:
https://www.cyclocane.com/michael-storm-tracker/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Michael meet Scott lol.

[Hammy]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

[Grassroots]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

I would be hesitant. Florence was forecasted to be a Cat. 4 at landfall, but ended up being a Cat. 1. Gordon was expected to be a Cat. 1 at landfall, instead it made landfall as a meager Tropical Storm. Never be too sure, the forecasts usually are made a bit higher than the most likely scenario, mainly for response purposes.

[Hammy]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

I would be hesitant. Florence was forecasted to be a Cat. 4 at landfall, but ended up being a Cat. 1. Gordon was expected to be a Cat. 1 at landfall, instead it made landfall as a meager Tropical Storm. Never be too sure, the forecasts usually are made a bit higher than the most likely scenario, mainly for response purposes.

Florence weakened in part due to upwelling from the increasingly slow speed, which both cut off the warm water supply, and expanded the wind field (the latter is usually something storms don't recover from) as well as dry air in part due to the location--something the models (aside from the GFS) did pick up on within the 72H period.

Either way, it's always best to prepare for a stronger storm than you get.

[Grassroots]

Bumping as Michael has now been updated to hurricane status and is expected to be Category 3 at landfall.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Gillum was absolutely atrocious in his response to the last hurricane to come through Tallahassee. Hopefully his ambitions will lead him to get the power on quicker.

[Sirius_]

Michael is now officially a hurricane, and the NWS is predicting a category 3 on landfall.

[Grassroots]

New bump as storm continues to strengthen as it devastates Cuba.

[Hollywood]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

There are significant forecast challenges with Michael that some models aren’t even calibrated to detect, and other models have difficulty, or complete inability, to consider.  Sometimes forecasters need to rely on the features currently on satellite, as well as their experience monitoring past storms that battled similar circumstances.  Given the features, I would also toss out the models as far as intensity. 

Here’s what we know.  Michael is better organized, but further organization will be an issue.  Michael is currently lopsided, meaning that it’s mid-level and lower-level spins   (vorticities) are not stacked, as evidenced by Satellite and the 850, 750, 500mb vorticity chart posted below (1).   It will have a tough time becoming better organized because it is fighting off inhibiting factors such as shear and dry air while its own decent support system tries to organize and strengthen the cyclone. 

If we had no shear and no dry air on satellite, I would agree with models taking this up to a category 4.   However, I’ve monitored storms for the last 10 years, and have been fooled by the models.  Although they’ve improved, they still don’t pick up well on inhibiting factors such as the shear and dry air. 

Florence is a recent example of models botching intensity.  Florence was a system models projected landfall on the Carolina Coast with Strong 3 to Category 4 Intensity.  The models miscalculated the amount of mid-level dry air that would inundate the storm’s circulation due to the upper-level low that formed to Flo’s S&E and pushed the dry air into Flo.

Also a factor with Michael is that the trough will cause Michael to transition into a hybrid storm with a baroclonic features.  While the trough provides energy to Michael by lowering its pressures and expanding its wind field, it will also have the effect of broadening the storm’s circulation, and therefore, reduce its maximum wind speeds.   This looks to have already occurred. 

(1)http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[KingSweden]

Since I’m a moron - what are the differences between a tropical storm and a hurricane? Intensity/wind speed mostly?

[Dr. Arch]

Since I’m a moron - what are the differences between a tropical storm and a hurricane? Intensity/wind speed mostly?

TS <74 mph
Hurricane => 74 mph

Both have a significant range of effects in terms of current winds, rainfall, movement, etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since I’m a moron - what are the differences between a tropical storm and a hurricane? Intensity/wind speed mostly?

Yes - Tropical Storm is sustained winds of 39-73 mph.  Hurricane is 74+, with the category defined based on the intensity.  See https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

[Person Man]

[KingSweden]

Bravo!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Update: after repeatedly denying my best friend’s request to evacuate, I have decided to leave....but he has to drive

[Mr. Reactionary]

In before "I hope it hits Republican areas"

[Ban my account ffs!]

Update: after repeatedly denying my best friend’s request to evacuate, I have decided to leave....but he has to drive

Probably not a bad decision.  And carpooling is also helpful.

[Person Man]

Update: after repeatedly denying my best friend’s request to evacuate, I have decided to leave....but he has to drive

Probably not a bad decision.  And carpooling is also helpful.

I rode out Irma after deciding against evacuation. When the eye wall skirted the area, I ran out into the 90 mph winds and was able to get a pool float.

[KingSweden]

Update: after repeatedly denying my best friend’s request to evacuate, I have decided to leave....but he has to drive

Good call, and stay safe

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Update: after repeatedly denying my best friend’s request to evacuate, I have decided to leave....but he has to drive

Probably not a bad decision.  And carpooling is also helpful.

I rode out Irma after deciding against evacuation. When the eye wall skirted the area, I ran out into the 90 mph winds and was able to get a pool float.

Irma was a tropical storm when it hit me. I took some of the rainbow connection and had a blast. This hurricane is definitely going to be stronger.

[BudgieForce]

I'm in southeast Florida so no evacuation for me.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm in southeast Florida so no evacuation for me.

That’s where I’m heading.

[NewYorkExpress]

In before "I hope it hits Republican areas"

Everywhere in North Florida is a Republican area, so no one needs to say that to begin with.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

In before "I hope it hits Republican areas"

Everywhere in North Florida is a Republican area, so no one needs to say that to begin with.

Tallahassee is the exception.