Hurricane Michael thread: (Updates, commentary)

[NewYorkExpress]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

There are significant forecast challenges with Michael that some models aren’t even calibrated to detect, and other models have difficulty, or complete inability, to consider.  Sometimes forecasters need to rely on the features currently on satellite, as well as their experience monitoring past storms that battled similar circumstances.  Given the features, I would also toss out the models as far as intensity. 

Here’s what we know.  Michael is better organized, but further organization will be an issue.  Michael is currently lopsided, meaning that it’s mid-level and lower-level spins   (vorticities) are not stacked, as evidenced by Satellite and the 850, 750, 500mb vorticity chart posted below (1).   It will have a tough time becoming better organized because it is fighting off inhibiting factors such as shear and dry air while its own decent support system tries to organize and strengthen the cyclone. 

If we had no shear and no dry air on satellite, I would agree with models taking this up to a category 4.   However, I’ve monitored storms for the last 10 years, and have been fooled by the models.  Although they’ve improved, they still don’t pick up well on inhibiting factors such as the shear and dry air. 

Florence is a recent example of models botching intensity.  Florence was a system models projected landfall on the Carolina Coast with Strong 3 to Category 4 Intensity.  The models miscalculated the amount of mid-level dry air that would inundate the storm’s circulation due to the upper-level low that formed to Flo’s S&E and pushed the dry air into Flo.

Also a factor with Michael is that the trough will cause Michael to transition into a hybrid storm with a baroclonic features.  While the trough provides energy to Michael by lowering its pressures and expanding its wind field, it will also have the effect of broadening the storm’s circulation, and therefore, reduce its maximum wind speeds.   This looks to have already occurred. 

(1)http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Based on all that, I would guess Michael will either be a strong Cat 2, or a weak Cat 3...or possibly not a Hurricane at all, but a very strong non-tropical low pressure system by landfall (but that's the most unlikely scenario).

[Hammy]

Based on all that, I would guess Michael will either be a strong Cat 2, or a weak Cat 3...or possibly not a Hurricane at all, but a very strong non-tropical low pressure system by landfall (but that's the most unlikely scenario).

I'd say Cat 2 would be the highest probability, with Cat 3 not too far behind. But given the poor stacking and potential dry air, it's entirely possible it could peak in the Gulf as a 3 and then weaken as it comes in. Florence in 1953 did that--rapid intensification to about 125mph, then about a day before landfall weakened quickly to a Cat 1, and rapidly transitioned into a frontal low not too long after landfall (and all this on a very similar track to Michael's forecast)

[Grassroots]

Bumping as Michael has reached Cat. 2 intensity with winds of 100 MPH.

[Person Man]

It looks like a real hurricane now although the outflow is still kind of weak on the west side.

[YE]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

[KingSweden]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

Does that projecf for it to weaken back to Cat 1, then?

[YE]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

Does that projecf for it to weaken back to Cat 1, then?

I highly doubt it.

[Person Man]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

Does that projecf for it to weaken back to Cat 1, then?

I highly doubt it.

I think the most realistic scenario is that its about as strong as it is now, maybe a little stronger.

[YE]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

Does that projecf for it to weaken back to Cat 1, then?

I highly doubt it.

I think the most realistic scenario is that its about as strong as it is now, maybe a little stronger.

This is probably a good bet to become a Cat 3/4, the question lies is much does it weaken just prior to landfall.

[Person Man]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

Does that projecf for it to weaken back to Cat 1, then?

I highly doubt it.

I think the most realistic scenario is that its about as strong as it is now, maybe a little stronger.

This is probably a good bet to become a Cat 3/4, the question lies is much does it weaken just prior to landfall.

Its going to be a hurricane. That's guaranteed. I'd give the following odds-

Cat 1 20%
Cat 2 30%
Cat 3 40%
Cat 4 5-10%
Cat 5 a possibility, but really small.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Expect Mike to be up to 105-110 mph at 11am. The plane just measured 105 mph and a pressure of 964 mb

[Person Man]

Expect Mike to be up to 105-110 mph at 11am. The plane just measured 105 mph and a pressure of 964 mb

That's pressure you usually associate with a Category 3... or close. And the pressure fell like 5 mb over the course of 3 hours?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Tally is already emptied out. It was much easier to get gas today than it would have been yesterday.

[Ye We Can]

That's some rapid deepening right there

[PSOL]

I hope none of you die:(

[TPIG]

Hurricane Michael just extended my fall break until October 15th. Of course I'm praying for anyone in harm's way, but I'm, at this moment, not too upset with this storm.

[Grassroots]

It's at 110, approaching 115, Cat 3 intensity. Most likely will make landfall at 120.

[DINGO Joe]

It's a small storm and it's got the potential to bomb out (rapidly intensify).  It won't bring the storm surge like Florence nor the flooding because it's moving too fast.  However, if your near landfall, the wind damage could be substantial.  I'm gonna be that guy and say it reaches 140.

[Hammy]

It's a small storm and it's got the potential to bomb out (rapidly intensify).  It won't bring the storm surge like Florence nor the flooding because it's moving too fast.  However, if your near landfall, the wind damage could be substantial.  I'm gonna be that guy and say it reaches 140.

That might not be too far off, it's up to 120 already.

[ltomlinson31]

Michael is now a Category 3.

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1049765919243849728?s=19

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

My car broke down on evacuation day so I’m riding it out at a friends place.

[BudgieForce]

My family in Tallahassee has evacuated. My cousin just started class at FSU too.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Right now is the best (scariest) Mike has been looking on satellite. He might take off tobight

[Hammy]

Here are some data resources for anyone interested (and can really apply to any active storm).

Satellite:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Recon:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Radar floater:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_nws_radar_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12 you can change the number of images in the loop at the end of the link.

[KingSweden]

Stay safe Floridians