COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[DINGO Joe]

I'm amazed at how little my state is f**king around with anti-vax nonsense. (Although "or a recent negative test" is not great, it's better than nothing?)

I've seen virtually zero mask resistance in Orleans/Jefferson which happens to be the most vaccinated part of the state.

[DINGO Joe]

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310 
11--Arkansas        2241

[DINGO Joe]

F[inks]ing YIKES.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1430546392288841732?s=19

New York really just had an exorcism.

It should be noted that while Cuomo hadn't acknowledged the higher number. the CDC and Worldometer had been counting New York at the higher number for some time so it really doesn't mean that there will be an increase of 12000 in the death total tomorrow.

[DINGO Joe]

It appears likely with Delta that the total Covid deaths under Biden will surpass the total Covid deaths under Trump before midterms. It's too bad because I think Biden has handled Covid fine for the most part, but you can't control the spread of a disease. Will be a piercing talking point.

Probably not, based on the CDC numbers, the number of COVID deaths thru Jan 20th would be about 460,000. 

[DINGO Joe]

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310 
11--Arkansas        2241

An update:

1--Mississippi       2968
2--New Jersey      2907
3--Louisiana         2773
4--New York         2725
5--Arizona            2668
6--Massachusetts  2605
7--Rhode Island    2536
8--Alabama           2468
9--Arkansas          2371
10--South Dakota  2342
11--Connecticut     2328
12--Pennsylvania   2193
13--Georgia           2184
14--Florida            2181
15--Indiana           2168
16--New Mexico     2161
17--Michigan         2159
18--South Carolina 2148
19--Nevada           2138
20--Illinois            2089
21--Oklahoma       2073
22--Texas              2031
National                2025
23--North Dakota   2012
24--Tennessee       1998

Oklahoma and Texas have enough momentum to knock Nevada and Illinois out of the top 20.  GA and FL will pass PA this week.  TN is the only state below the national avg that will likely move above it

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1439620766077698048

This being Atlas, we covered that a few months back

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441658.msg8077283#msg8077283

[DINGO Joe]

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310 
11--Arkansas        2241

An update:

1--Mississippi       2968
2--New Jersey      2907
3--Louisiana         2773
4--New York         2725
5--Arizona            2668
6--Massachusetts  2605
7--Rhode Island    2536
8--Alabama           2468
9--Arkansas          2371
10--South Dakota  2342
11--Connecticut     2328
12--Pennsylvania   2193
13--Georgia           2184
14--Florida            2181
15--Indiana           2168
16--New Mexico     2161
17--Michigan         2159
18--South Carolina 2148
19--Nevada           2138
20--Illinois            2089
21--Oklahoma       2073
22--Texas              2031
National                2025
23--North Dakota   2012
24--Tennessee       1998

Oklahoma and Texas have enough momentum to knock Nevada and Illinois out of the top 20.  GA and FL will pass PA this week.  TN is the only state below the national avg that will likely move above it

Another update

1--Mississippi       3159
2--New Jersey      2935
3--Louisiana         2932
4--New York         2752
5--Arizona            2749
6--Alabama          2720
7--Massachusetts  2632
8--Rhode Island    2569
9--Oklahoma        2522       
10--Arkansas        2499
11--Florida           2409
12--South Dakota 2378
13--Georgia          2346
14--Conn              2342
15--So Carolina     2328   
16--Indiana           2257
17--Pennsylvania   2235
18--Nevada           2238
19--New Mexico     2228
20--Michigan         2196
21--Texas              2171
22--Illinois             2135
23--Tennessee        2124
US--                      2111

[DINGO Joe]

The Plains and northern Rockies did best.

It's also striking how rural areas just weren't very masky compared to urban areas.

Your total aversion to math and reality is astounding for a non-troll.

[DINGO Joe]

UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

(...)

UPDATE! OCTOBER 15!

1. (+11) 335 - Mississippi
2. (+9) 307 - Louisiana
3. (+16) 301 - Alabama
4. (+3) 298 - New Jersey
5. (+7) 286 - Arizona
6. (+3) 276 - New York
7. (+16) 271 - Arkansas
8. (+13) 268 - Florida
9. (+2) 267 - Massachusetts
10. (+3) 261 - Rhode Island

11. (+15) 257 - Georgia
11. (+13) 257 - South Carolina
13. (+5) 246- South Dakota
14. (+2) 241 - Connecticut
15. (+9) 239 - Indiana
15. (+10) 239 - Nevada
15. (+12) 239 - Oklahoma
18. (+6) 233 - Pennsylvania
19. (+5) 232 - New Mexico
20. (+13) 231 - Texas

21. (+10) 228 - Tennessee
22. (+5) 227 - Michigan
23. (+23) 226 - West Virginia
24. (+4) 220 - Illinois
25. (+7) 214 - North Dakota
26. (+6) 212 - Iowa
27. (+3) 209 - Kansas
28. (+13) 206 - Kentucky
29. (+6) 203 - Delaware
30. (+?) 196 - Montana

UPDATE! OCTOBER 30!

1. (+5) 340 - Mississippi
2. (+5) 312 - Louisiana
3. (+9) 310 - Alabama
4. (+3) 301 - New Jersey
5. (+9) 295 - Arizona
6. (+3) 279 - New York
7. (+6) 277 - Arkansas
8. (+8) 276 - Florida
9. (+34) 273 - Oklahoma
10. (+14) 271 - Georgia

11. (+3) 270 - Massachusetts
12. (+10) 267 - South Carolina
13. (+1) 262 - Rhode Island
14. (+6) 252 - South Dakota
15. (+21) 247 - West Virginia
16. (+7) 246 - Indiana
16. (+7) 246 - Nevada
18. (+2) 243 - Connecticut
19. (+8) 241 - Pennsylvania
20. (+9) 240 - Texas

21. (+6) 238 - New Mexico
22. (+9) 237 - Tennessee
23. (+8) 235 - Michigan
24. (+12) 226 - North Dakota
25. (+3) 223 - Illinois
26. (+9) 218 - Kansas
26. (+6) 218 - Iowa
28. (+11) 217 - Kentucky
29. (+20) 216 - Montana
30. (+8) 211 - Delaware

Ah crap you all just look at that Oklahoma number. Literally burst into the top ten
Insane stuff, did they just dump some data?

Oklahoma reports two numbers--the number of deaths reported to the CDC and an "investigated deaths" number from the state health board.  The CDC number (which is used by the WaPo updates every weekday, while the "investigated number updates once or twice a week and is prone to "dumps".  Really, it just seems like an attempt to slow roll the numbers and the local media seems to use the CDC numbers anyway.  So I use those,  which actually makes Oklahoma even higher at 286.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1457438899580456968

Also, given what is happening in Europe now, I think, that another mini-wave is coming to US soon.

Luckily those heavily hit areas are sparsely populated and relatively well vaccinated.

Well, the sparsely populated areas are not well vaccinated hence the surges of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming up the death boards.  More densely populated states with an increase in cases  have had increased deaths too (mainly in their sparsely populated unvaxxed areas) but not as a dramatic increase in deaths because populated areas are better vaxxed.

[DINGO Joe]

One of the 41 cops in San Francisco that was put on leave for not getting vaccinated has died, of course from COVID.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco-police-officer-dies-of-covid-19-sources/2724167/

Remember, the #1 killer of cops is COVID.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm scheduled for my booster on Tuesday.  Thought about mixing it up, but I'm just getting Pfizer again.

[DINGO Joe]

As reported to the CDC, Covid deaths for 2021 have exceeded Covid deaths for 2020--of course Covid deaths were likely undercounted in 2020. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm


Overall deaths in 2020 increased by 533,000 with 385,000 deemed Covid related.  I'd guess deaths this year will increase about 25,000 over 2020 (+/- 25,000)  with Covid deaths at 425,000.  Probably still an undercount.

Of course, the worst month of the pandemic was January 2021 with 105,000.

[DINGO Joe]

I am about to roll around on the floor and scream!!

I always assumed you did that everyday.

[DINGO Joe]

Is it possible masks will be something to live with for literally the rest of our lives?

Masks in crowded spaces are pretty standard in many Asian countries and have been for many years

No wonder their suicide rates are so high.

Is that why the West US has always had high suicide rates too?

[DINGO Joe]

I was looking at the CDC age data for COVID deaths today and it was interesting how much younger the deaths in 2021 will be than it 2020.  The only age group that will have an actual decrease in deaths this year will be the over 85 age group (the 75-84 should be about flat),  Starting with the 55-64 age group, the number of deaths basically double from last year.  Obviously Delta was a deadlier variant for a larger portion of the population. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

Deaths will also be much more Whiter and slightly more male than last year.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, Universities are actually more than students as anyone who has attended a university may have noticed the old people working there and the universities are and should be expected to be part of the larger community.  Now, universities are highly vaxxed so while breakthrough  cases could pose a modest risk to the older employees, it is really all about their role with the larger community they are a part of.

Also, I'm not terribly bothered by the complaints of students as the workplace was steadily becoming more remote even before Covid (and sadly, if you are salaried, more 24/7 as your never beyond the reach of technology) and once they do get in the workplace they will have to deal with greater obstacles than this.  It gives them something to talk about in the interview when they are asked how they adapted to change.


Of course, with Covid presenting the largest threat to the unvaxxed and the unvaxxed being dominated by Trumpers as the data shows the pandemic becoming much whiter and more rural (also much younger whether that's because Delta is more deadly or rural America is much less healthy, I haven't seen any research),  the best mitigation strategy would be a "BRTD" strategy where you look up the percentage Trump vote and add mitigation efforts/number of masks accordingly.  Of course, they are the least likely to follow them hence the deaths and overburdened hospitals that start transferring patients to other hospitals and thus overburden everybody.

[DINGO Joe]

The stay at home orders in the US, honestly, fell far short of what the term "lockdown" should entail. There was no enforcement at all to actually keep people home

What about all those people who went to jail in Ohio?

Citation needed

Back around March or April 2020, the Cincinnati Enquirer ran a list of people arrested in Hamilton County for being more than a few miles from home.

OK, I stand corrected. I'm not aware of such enforcement happening anywhere else in the country, not in NY or NJ nor PA where I was staying. As far as I could see it was on the honor system. I'm surprised to see this happen in OH and not a blue state but Mike DeWine  nowadays is not a typical Republican.

I was curious about Bandit's claim, since he didn't provide a link and it turns out that they were charging people who were committing crimes or overdoses during the curfew hours, so no, they weren't actively charging people for violating curfews

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/04/22/coronavirus-od-victims-charged-violating-stay-home-order/3003064001/

[DINGO Joe]

but I am confident .. with the rate we developed these jabs, we will have credible vaccines that will stop infections entirely before 2024.

No.  That's not how it works

[DINGO Joe]

A bizarre data point out of South Africa

Whites in the country have a higher death rate than blacks, despite the wealth and income and healthcare access gap being extreme.

Wonder what explains this?

Are whites in SA an older cohort?

Yes.  From Wikipedia:

In South Africa, the Black African population is spread out, with 34.0% under the age of 15, 21.6% from 15 to 24, 28.3% from 25 to 44, 11.8% from 45 to 64 and 4.3% who are 65 years of age or older. The median age of an Black African is 21 years.
...
In South Africa, the White population is spread out, with 19.0% under the age of 15, 15.1% from 15 to 24, 31.0% from 25 to 44, 23.8% from 45 to 64, and 11.1% who are 65 years of age or older. The median age of a White is 35 years.

I would also expect that the lower level of healthcare access would lead to an underreporting of black deaths from covid.

In the US, the pandemic has gotten increasingly whiter as it's gone along.  I wouldn't quite call it a Klandemic at this point but it's getting there.

[DINGO Joe]

Thought this was interesting

DHHR has confirmed the deaths of a 59-year old male from Ohio County, a 59-year old male from Fayette County, a 37-year old male from Ohio County, a 74-year old female from Mason County, a 92-year old male from Kanawha County, a 52-year old female from Mingo County, a 58-year old female from Summers County, a 60-year old female from Marion County, a 40-year old male from Doddridge County, an 86-year old male from Jefferson County, a 77-year old female from Harrison County, a 53-year old male from Brooke County, a 68-year old male from Kanawha County, a 51-year old male from Ohio County, a 79-year old male from Jackson County, a 65-year old male from Marshall County, a 28-year old male from Harrison County, a 75-year old female from Monongalia County, a 91-year old female from Fayette County, a 40-year old female from Preston County, an 82-year old female from Raleigh County, a 70-year old male from Morgan County, a 54-year old male from Nicholas County, a 67-year old male from Kanawha County, a 44-year old male from Barbour County, a 61-year old male from Mercer County, an 86-year old male from Hardy County, a 72-year old male from Lewis County, a 64-year old male from Logan County, and a 73-year old male from Mineral County.

Included in the total deaths reported on the dashboard as a result of the Bureau for Public Health’s continuing data reconciliation with the official death certificate is a 60-year old male from Wood County. This death occurred in October 2021.

It the daily report of the Covid dead in WV.  16 out of 31 were under 65.  That's WV for ya.

https://www.wsaz.com/2021/12/22/covid-19-wva-31-additional-deaths-1149-new-cases-reported/

[DINGO Joe]

The death count just isn't keeping up with the case count though.

Well, of course, deaths lag case counts for obvious reasons, but the vax levels for much of the US should keep deaths well below last Dec/Jan but still far too many dead people even if they are mainly rural white people.

[DINGO Joe]

The death count just isn't keeping up with the case count though.

Well, of course, deaths lag case counts for obvious reasons, but the vax levels for much of the US should keep deaths well below last Dec/Jan but still far too many dead people even if they are mainly rural white people.

Stone cold fact that the pandemic deaths have gotten whiter, more rural and even younger as the pandemic has gone on.  They don't want to vax or mask or do anything to take pressure of of rural hospitals.  It's who they are.

Casual racism, nice

[DINGO Joe]

Fauci says U.S. should consider adding a vaccine requirement for domestic flights

So the "papers please" regime is now complete.

I'm  guessing you haven't flown in the last 20 years

[DINGO Joe]

No, case numbers don't matter anymore, but Hospital numbers do, and Delta seems to be still kicking around especially among white people so until that's under control there are quite a few places that should be taking extra precautions.