US Births fall 4% in 2020 Down 142,000
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May 07, 2021, 05:34:54 PM

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  US Births fall 4% in 2020 Down 142,000
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Author Topic: US Births fall 4% in 2020 Down 142,000  (Read 546 times)
DINGO Joe
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« on: May 05, 2021, 01:15:42 AM »

Fell across every state, demo and age group.  Really can't blame it on the pandemic as only some December births could have been impacted.  When combined with a 530,000 increase in deaths, natural growth fell to 220,000 from 890,000 in 2019 and 1.5 million in 2010

In 2018, four states had more deaths than births WV, VT, NH and ME.  The map for 2020 looks like this



Blue=more deaths than births

Births

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr012-508.pdf

Deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2021, 01:40:56 AM »

Did virus exposure cause miscarriages? Each year sets a new record for low birth rates, but if the decline this year was particularly sharp that could be a cause.
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YE
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2021, 01:50:18 AM »

No wonder why Atlas was so active last year.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2021, 01:51:00 AM »

Did virus exposure cause miscarriages? Each year sets a new record for low birth rates, but if the decline this year was particularly sharp that could be a cause.

I haven't heard any discussion of such, anecdotal or otherwise.
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FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2021, 01:55:31 AM »

So what percentage of US population growth in 2020 came directly from immigration? I might be misreading the numbers at a cursory glance, but it seems like ~80%?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2021, 02:08:58 AM »

So what percentage of US population growth in 2020 came directly from immigration? I might be misreading the numbers at a cursory glance, but it seems like ~80%?

I dunno, what were the immigration numbers for 2020?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2021, 02:21:01 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2021, 02:47:42 AM by DaleCooper »

Pandemic aside, there are a number of reasons for why the US birth rate has and will probably continue to fall. If I had to guess, the three biggest reasons behind choosing not to have children are economic anxiety, nihilism and pessimism about relationship, and fear of the future state of the world.
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Monstro Doesn't Say Anything Interesting
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2021, 02:36:00 AM »

I'm surprised that the young people who grew up around economic recessions (including one right now), record student loan debt, a lack of affordable housing, school-shooting drills, a global pandemic, a rapidly-declining environment and (at least in 2020) President Trump wouldn't have the funds or faith to have as many children as previous generations.
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FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2021, 03:14:52 AM »

So what percentage of US population growth in 2020 came directly from immigration? I might be misreading the numbers at a cursory glance, but it seems like ~80%?

I dunno, what were the immigration numbers for 2020?

I just glanced at 2020 estimated population growth (~995k).
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AverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2021, 06:48:17 AM »

It's definitely not miscarriages, because that would have been noticed in hospital data.

I see two sides of it: Those who put off planned pregnancies - because of uncertainty around income or living situations - and those who had fewer opportunities for creating unplanned ones.

Lack of childcare is also a cause, not just because it's been a pain-in-the-ass for those relying on the professional sector, but also because many people were not as able to rely on their parents.

Anecdotally, there is a subset of the WFH class that was more likely to have children a bit early, but they are dominated by other groups.
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SecularGlobalist
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2021, 06:53:20 AM »

People are postponing the hoochie-coochie because they sense a roaring 20s on the horizon.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2021, 08:04:28 AM »

Did virus exposure cause miscarriages? Each year sets a new record for low birth rates, but if the decline this year was particularly sharp that could be a cause.

Not that many. COVID-19 still largely struck hardest at people above the usual menopause years for women.

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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2021, 08:07:52 AM »

Iím guessing this is why about 10-15 states are trying to make abortion a crime. /n(naive)
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Abdullah
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« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2021, 12:47:03 PM »

I'm surprised it fell only 4%
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2021, 01:02:44 PM »


Early reports suggest that 2021 could drop double digits
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2021, 01:25:26 PM »


In Austria, births only fell by 1% last year (an increase in Q1, then a stagnation in Q2 and Q3 and a sharp decline in December).

In Denmark and Finland, births actually increased a bit.

In Spain though, they were down more than 10% ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2021, 01:29:23 PM »

So what percentage of US population growth in 2020 came directly from immigration? I might be misreading the numbers at a cursory glance, but it seems like ~80%?

I dunno, what were the immigration numbers for 2020?

I just glanced at 2020 estimated population growth (~995k).

That might even be too optimistic of an estimate.

Natural increase last year was only 250.000 people and the immigration balance is almost certainly down too. Probably +400.000 or so.

+650.000

Or +0.2% increase for the whole year (not the mid-2020 estimate !) is likely.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2021, 02:41:06 PM »

most of the decline birth rate from 2008 to 2017 mostly came from immigrants(mostly hispanic) having less children, but now its affecting including native born women. we'll see how the 2020s shape this and whether or not we'll see a baby boom a few years down the line.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2021, 02:43:36 PM »

We need to open up the borders. Millions of hard-working, democracy-loving fertile future Americans would love to move this country.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2021, 02:46:04 PM »

It's worth mentioning that one factor behind the dire county-level population estimates published by the Census Bureau yesterday is that there were mass deaths of despair happening throughout the decade. This will have only been compounded by COVID-19. As far as I can tell, this dire fact has been mostly overlooked in favor of migration/births - the reality is far worse than that, sadly.
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leecannon_
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2021, 02:53:56 PM »

> attack on the capital

> birth rate falling

Iíve watched too much handmaidís tale to like where this is going
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2021, 04:09:47 PM »

Kind of surprised much of the South recorded natural declines while the Plains states recorded natural growth.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2021, 04:44:45 PM »

Kind of surprised much of the South recorded natural declines while the Plains states recorded natural growth.

Well retirees have a long history of moving south to retire and boomers are the biggest generation so it shouldn't be a big shock.  Think of Florida as being a big elephant graveyard.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2021, 05:46:30 PM »

Kind of surprised much of the South recorded natural declines while the Plains states recorded natural growth.

Well retirees have a long history of moving south to retire and boomers are the biggest generation so it shouldn't be a big shock.  Think of Florida as being a big elephant graveyard.

I get Florida, was thinking more of say Alabama or Tennessee which while getting some retirees isn't getting enormous numbers of them.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2021, 05:47:36 PM »

I'm surprised that the young people who grew up around economic recessions (including one right now), record student loan debt, a lack of affordable housing, school-shooting drills, a global pandemic, a rapidly-declining environment and (at least in 2020) President Trump wouldn't have the funds or faith to have as many children as previous generations.

I agree with some of the economic factors as well as Covid but I doubt school shooters play a big risk into decisions on whether to have kids or not. Murder rates were far higher 50-30 years ago.
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