Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Kamala's side hoe]

New Datafolha Poll

Group: Lula, Bolsonaro, Ciro, Simone

Income
<2 MW: 52, 27, 7, 3
2-5 MW: 40, 39, 9, 5
5-10 MW: 35, 40, 11, 6
>10 MW: 32, 41, 8, 14

I’m guessing this refers to monthly income in thousands of Reals?

If this link is accurate I’m guessing these brackets correspond to the Bottom 70%, 70-90th percentile, 90-97(?)th percentile, and Top 2-3% of income earners?

[Kamala's side hoe]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

So basically, just like 2020 in the U.S. then?

Was listening to the 538 social media podcast episode yesterday. NY Times reporter Max Fisher described how a lot of people who watched non-political gaming related YouTube videos got sucked into Bolsonaro's 2018 online media environment through YouTube's algorithms. Doesn't sound too different from Gamergate and Whatsapp non-English misinformation proliferation in the States.

Atlas-style

There's something ominous about Bolsonaro (narrowly) winning Sao Paulo state.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Overall, the POOREST segments who get 1 minimum wage or less are clearly still the biggest left stronghold. That said, I think you cannot deny Bolsonaro made ground with lower middle class segments who are able to live mostly comfortable in terms of their basic needs although they don’t get much else. And it’s that kind of voter, who’s not that concerned about economic needs anymore when most of their basic needs are already attended, that are driven to a anti-establishment populist rhetoric. They are angry at politicians, establishment and richer segments of society for not being richer and be able to consume more, but they aren’t really desperate at all and live their daily lives comfortably for the most part. They might even look down on the segments that are poorer than them.

It’s that lower-middle class stereotype that I associate to Bolsonaro’s support in Rio. You know what I am talking about if you’ve gone to neighborhoods in West Zone or in Baixada Fluminense.

Honestly, future looks bleak as hell with the collapse of parties like MDB, PSDB, etc giving full opening to PL and UNIÃO. It’s like the physiological non-ideological Centrão evolved to a far-right flavored Centrão and no one else other than PT really existed as the alternative to that monster. It sounds hard to balance a scenario where you lead with poorest segments and increasingly become more popular with some wealthy segments too, leaving a reactionary middle class hating you in the in-between.

This all sounds very much like the US and the GOP.

Yes, but *why* is it so right wing?

Stronger religious and family values. It’s that kind of conservatism that’s absurdly strong here instead of the business market types. Which is why the right is bound to be a stronger force when represented by Bolsonaro instead of the PSDB types.

Brazil might be more culturally secular-rational than the rest of Latin America, but it’s still way more conservative on that metric than anywhere in the Anglosphere.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Cool Twitter thread from the Leipverse Discord servers, seems in line with what the Brazilian posters have said. Ties in nicely with my surprise at Bolsonaro winning São Paulo state

https://twitter.com/mattyrichy/status/1576818766524342273

Well, it’s not what many were expecting. Lula broadly performed as the polls indicated, but Bolsonaro performed far better. This is likely down to a “shy bolsonarista” vote... 🧵

While I’m surprised by the scale of the error, the phenomenon itself doesn’t surprise me. It may be that in the wake of the pandemic and growing anger about his presidency some 2018 Bolsonaro voters were reluctant to openly admit it that they planned to vote for him again

It may also be that some of that rejection was “soft” and that Bolsonaro benefited more (and Lula less) than we expected from a squeeze on the smaller candidates. In other words, voters polarised between the two main camps so that the 1st round ended up looking more like a runoff

The undercounting of Bolsonaro’s vote seems to have been particularly strong in the Southeast and South regions. In other regions, both candidates’ results were generally higher than polling suggested, supporting the idea of a 1st round polarisation dynamic

However, in the Southeast and South regions, Lula’s vote was as expected, whereas Bolsonaro’s was significantly higher, suggesting a large number of shy bolsonaristas. This was most important in the three largest electoral colleges in the country, all in the Southeast region...

In São Paulo and Minas Gerais, Bolsonaro’s vote was 11 points higher than the Datafolha poll conducted on 30 September. In Rio de Janeiro it was 14 points higher. In a recent blog, I argued that these states would be crucial and they were – but not as the polls had suggested

We now have a clearer understanding of local voting patterns across these states, and it makes for interesting viewing. As expected, the poorer north/east of Minas voted heavily for Lula, whereas the west was split between pro-Lula and pro-Bolsonaro areas

In SP & RJ, outside the metro areas, Bolsonaro performed very well. Only a few small cities & provinces favoured Lula, mostly by small margins. This suggests that Lula’s strategy of winning over such voters with a moderate pitch & coalition building has not paid off as hoped

Essentially, I think the idea that these predominantly lower-middle class towns are full of moderates who swung to Bolsonaro reluctantly in 2018 needs to be reconsidered. Bolsonaro's vote has proved very resilient & Lula's big tent coalition has had little cut through

But it is in the heavily populated metro areas that things get really interesting. In São Paulo, after years of drift, the PT seems to be winning back the low-income peripheries & parts of the metropolitan industrial belt, while also doing well in many urban middle-class areas

In metro area Rio and Belo Horizonte, the story is very different. In Rio, it is the more middle class central areas that favoured Lula, whereas the low-income peripheries voted emphatically for Bolsonaro as in 2018. In Belo Horizonte, only two electoral zones preferred Lula

What this suggests to me is that there is an “enlightened” middle class in Rio and São Paulo that has turned strongly against Bolsonaro, and a peripheral working class in São Paulo that has a muscle memory of voting for the PT/Lula and was willing to do so again

However, in the peripheries of Rio and BH, where PT presence was always more fragile and the swing to the right particularly strong in 2018, there is no sign of a reversal. Indeed, an entrenched bolsonarismo looks like a new normal for these areas

I don't know the BH case well enough to speculate. But in Rio’s West Zone & the Baixada, I'd hazard that the lulismo/PMDB alliance that dominated the 2000s has been displaced by a powerful mix of Bolsonaro-aligned clientelist parties, churches & militias

In other words, in both comfortable interior towns and some of the poor peripheries of the Southeast, for very different reasons, a far-right electoral project has become far more entrenched since 2018 than the polls had led us to believe.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Like I said in the 2018 map though, I still don’t get PR though. Clearly Curitiba is way more of a right-wing city than Florianópolis (SC) or Porto Alegre (RS), while the interior of PR is more moderate. I don’t really understand why though, makes no sense. Maybe it’s effect of Car-Wash pride or something, when Curitiba became the face of the operation??? But you would have to look if this phenomenon wasn’t repeated BEFORE 2018, otherwise it’s not that and something older…

BA and PR are the most difficult ones for me to come up with an explanation but it’s clearly result of Salvador being leftier than usual Northeast capital standards and Curitiba being rightier than usual South standards. Why they behave like that is the question.

According to English Wikipedia Curitiba has several nicknames relating to its mild climate, lush greenery, and healthy environment (in English “ecological city” implies some connection with environmentalism). Wonder if that’s a factor somehow

Nickname(s): Cidade Modelo ("Model City"); Capital Ecológica do Brasil ("Ecological Capital of Brazil"); Cidade Verde ("Green City"); Capital das Araucárias ("Capital of Araucarias"); A Cidade da Névoa Eterna ("The City of Eternal Fog")

I just don’t know to explain WHY Curitiba tends to be more conservative. It was the headquarters of Car-Wash so there might be some pride regarding that in the city? But you would have to look at the vote from 2014 and before in order to confirm this isn’t an older trend. In which case, I wouldn’t know how to explain.

I’ve been to Curitiba before and thought it was okay place with friendly people but at same time, for some reason it has been historically used as a code for something, idk why. People in there don’t really look particularly whiter or blonder at all to me but go figure!

I also noticed the English Wiki page also shows the Polish version of ‘Curitiba’. Does the city have a large Polish diaspora?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Well, I wrong in saying that Bolsonaro would win. Congrats to Lula.

However, these results aren't "exciting", IMO. A 50/50 election and Brazil's National Congress is firmly in the grip of Bolsonaro-acolytes.

At least, the destruction of the Amazon is temporarily suspended for a few years.

no its not suspended for a few years.

I’m with New Frontier on this one. The federal legislative and state-level first round results weren’t exactly great for the (center)-left. Very reminiscent of US 2020.

no its not suspended for a few years.

Well, then this election is essentially meaningless.

No what i meant was Lula will likely have a policy of lasting protections for it.

Hopefully you’re right on this one.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Well, if the final result is 50.9-49.1 then my prediction of 51.5-49.5 was less than 1% off. Another feather in the cap 😎

Lula: 55,189,618 (50.58%)
Bolsonaro: 53,923,613 (49.42%)
91.89% REPORTING

Haha USERS said Lula trendline wouldnt continue, ha, he who laughs have the last laugh.

We said that it wouldn't continue like it did in the 1st round and we were right. Otherwise Lula would be ahead by ~3-4%, not less than 1%

Because of the Northeast counting faster than the non-metro Southeast, right? Does anyone have a graph of the runoff trendline by any chance?

Anyway, here's a flashback of President-elect Lula da Silva and VP-elect Alckmin from 16 years ago

[Kamala's side hoe]

I'm sure this has been explained many times here but is there a reason that the biggest states with metropolitan centers like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, or even Brasilia vote quite right of the country? I feel like their equivalents in the US (CA, NY, DC) are core to the Democratic Party...

Likewise, how has PT held up in the NE? Is this simply a matter of class based politics remaining as the main dividing line? I'm just surprised that a "fascist" president would get so much support from the "educated elite" sections of the country - but maybe I just don't understand the inhabitants of Southern Brazil.

My understanding from following this thread is it's Class + Race + Pentecostalism + Lula being from the Northeast + Bolsonaro being from Rio de Janeiro state

Spoiler alert: Brasilia commentary

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Interesting how Brasilia has moved rightward as well.

1) Public sector employees don't vote strongly for PT now as they did in the past
2) A middle class of private sector workers increased in Brasília in the last 30 years
3) Evangelic poor neighborhoods increased in Brasília in the last 30 years

Spoiler alert: Rio commentary

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I'd like more feedback from the Brazilians here but my impression of Rio is that, historically, it was a "red" city and that this persisted until rather recently. The first danger sign could be seen when Dilma performed miserably in the 1st round in 2014 due to Marina Silva's strong performance, which was driven in large part by Pentecostals supporting here.

Are the poor in Rio unusually Pentecostal? In my view, that could explain Rio's extreme shifts in a parsimonious manner but, of course, it does not explain everything because Pentecostals in Bahia or Pernambuco still vote for PT candidates at reasonably high rates.

I've wondered about this as well. Is Rio far more of an Evangelical city than its rival Sao Paulo? I think greater support for the Right makes sense in Rio compared to the Northeast due to there being far more nouveau riche/lower middle class evangelicals and possibly the greater relative salience of issues such as crime vs. material economic conditions. Additionally, certain evangelical based self-help/prosperity theology/Norman Vincent Peale style "positive thinking" movements (see this excellent article in Unherd https://unherd.com/2022/09/the-self-help-guru-who-conquered-brazil/) are almost certainly much more popular in a place like Rio. Of course, localized demographic voting patterns/political subcultures emerge all the time, this isn't an exact comparison but just compare the voting patterns of Italian Americans in the New York City metropolitan area to Boston...

This article, in Portuguese, explains the religious gap in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election
https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-62896472

Bolsonaro has a large margin in the group of the evangelicals, Lula has a large margin in the group of the catholics.
Most of the evangelic churches in Brazil are very conservative. There is a left-wing inside the catholic church. But this is only a small part of the explanation.
There are very conservative catholics who vote for Bolsonaro. But they are a minority in the group of the catholics in Brazil. Most of the catholics vote for Lula because most of the catholics are moderate. Religion is not a very important part of their lives. They don't get their opinion from religious leaders. Most of the evangelicals, on the other side, have the religion as the main issue of their lives. They follow the opinion of religious leaders.
According to a Datafolha poll from January 2020, 53% of the evangelicals and 17% of the catholics in Brazil attend the church weekly.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Map of overseas 2nd round results (link)

A: Of course the US went Bolsanaro

OP: Chicago, SF, LA and DC didn't.

B: However Boston, the only city with a big working-class Brazilian population, voted almost 80% for Bolsonaro.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Brasilia's big rightwards swing - it used to vote to the left of the country as a whole - makes sense considering the caste (there isn't a better word for it, so it will serve) issue that has become such an important feature of Brazilian voting patterns in recent decades. It also lacks working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree (a demo that continues to be quite loyal to Lula it seems) and middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities to find the reality of Bolsonaro in power less appealing than sticking it to the PT again. Not surprising that it wouldn't have many of the first, but the latter is intriguing and probably could do with some sort of explanation. But in the end it makes sense from one angle: it's a dreadful city, so it is right that it has dreadful politics.

What is "caste" being used to mean in this context? Is it what US observers of affairs Brazilian tend to call "race"?

Probably. "Working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree" reads like "lower SES Brazilians with more European ancestry and more visible European features".